Is Kenya birthing a new country named Jubaland?

[Khalid Ali]

Is Kenya birthing a new country named Jubaland?

Is Kenya birthing a new country named Jubaland?

A Jubaland warlord backed by Kenya flew to another semi-autonomous region in Somalia and was hailed this weekend as Jubaland's president.

By Fredrick Nzwili, Correspondent / July 8, 2013

A row on the Horn of Africa between Somalia and Kenya over a border area inside Somalia called Jubaland took another twist -- as a former militia leader backed by Kenya but not recognized by Somalia flew to a prominent northern city and was received there as the president of Jubaland.
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In recent weeks the government of Somalia has been claiming Kenya, an old ally, of quietly and tacitly creating a buffer state out of the territory of Jubaland, one that Kenya would hold sway in.

On July 1 Somali authorities said that Kenyan forces, deployed in Somalia as part of an African Union peacekeeping force, were taking sides and should leave, and that they were complicit in a small massacre in May in the Jubaland port of Kismayo that left dozens dead and some 155 wounded.

They also allege that Kenya is backing Sheikh Ahmed Madobe, the leader of a militia called Ras Kamboni, that has fought in Jubaland with Kenyan troops in an effort to drive out the Al Qaeda-linked radical forces of Al Shabab.

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Over the weekend Mr. Madobe flew to the Somalian Puntland region, which, like Jubaland, is semi-autonomous and wishes to remain so. In Puntland, Madobe was received with a guard of honor and spoke at a public square, praising his hosts for their semi-independent status and calling Puntland "the mother of Jubaland."

The Somali government, now backed by the US, has steadily said it does not recognize Madobe as the leader of Jubaland; some six warlords now claim to represent the Jubaland area that stretches along the Kenyan border.

Kenya officially denies that it is creating a borderland buffer state, or taking sides in Somalia, or backing Madobe.

Yet there are strong feelings in Nairobi that Jubaland will eventually gravitate towards a Kenyan orbit since Madobe is backed by a number of influential Kenyan politicians of Somali origin.

As the Monitor reported last Friday:

Kenya denies taking sides in Somalia and calls itself neutral, even though many analysts now agree that Nairobi is pursuing a security zone on its border aimed at repulsing militants like the Islamist radical group Al Shabab that are linked to Al Qaeda.

“Kenya has been seeking to establish a ‘state’ so that it can take care of its security interests. It had been neutral on the Somali issues from 1991-2011, but we think this is changing,” says Abdiwahab Sheikh Abdisamad, a Nairobi-based Horn of Africa specialist.

Tensions were exacerbated yesterday by a misdirected letter to the African Union from Fawzia Yusuf Adam, the Somali deputy prime minister and foreign minister, stating that Kenyan forces are not being neutral, and that the Kenyan commander in charge in the Jubaland area is “incompetent.”

The letter, obtained and authenticated by the BBC, was wrongly sent out to “press contacts” in addition to officials of the African Union – and is the first verification of the degree of anger and diplomacy by Mogadishu regarding Nairobi.

Last fall Kenyan troops based in Somalia took Kismayo, a strategic port some 300 miles south of Mogadishu, from the control of Al Shabab, which carries out attacks on Western and international groups on the Horn, most recently exploding a suicide bomb at a UN compound in Mogadishu.

To maintain control of Jubaland and Kismayo, Kenya has been tacitly backing Sheikh Ahmed Madobe. Mr. Madobe is a former warlord whose Ras Kamboni militia supported Kenyan troops since they entered Somalia in 2011 as part of the African Union contingent designed to stabilize Somalia, say officials and analysts.

In May, Mr. Madobe, using his militia as a political base, was elected president of Jubaland at a conference at Kismayo University attended by 550 delegates.

The current Somali government in Mogadishu – now recognized by Washington and the International Monetary Fund – rejected the election as unconstitutional.

Some five warlords in Jubaland currently are calling themselves president of the area; the Somali government does not recognize any of them.
'We are just trying to rebuild'

Kenyan military officials, such as spokesman Col. Cyrus Oguna, have stressed that Kenyan forces are neutral and merely trying to promote security and rebuild the country.

Yet “Kenya needs to be cautious," says Mr. Abdiwahab. "There is a complex web of politics involving clans that it must not lose sight of. I am afraid, if it has not understood this, then ... it’s making a political miscalculation that may jeopardize security in north eastern Kenya and parts of Somalia."

For Fred Nyabera, a conflict resolution consultant in Nairobi, the Jubaland buffer zone may be an important idea, but it needs further thinking.

“Kenya needs security along the porous border and I think the buffer zone is important. It will contribute to the security of region including Somalia. The problem is that other actors in the region think that Kenya sees this only as a Kenyan issue,” says Mr. Nyabera.

Nyabera also says that Somalian officials must see the situation from Nairobi’s security perspective.

He warns, however, that if Kenyan authorities don’t make clear a time frame for their troops to leave, that they will be increasingly seen as “an occupying force. They need a clear calendar for exit.”

[Hodan94]

What can I say...she is now currently pregNant and has been for a long time waiting to give birth to its precious jubaland. for a while Kenya seeing jubaland thriugh ultrasound scan cannot wait to meet its jubaland.

[Khalid Ali]

What can I say...she is now currently pregNant and has been for a long time waiting to give birth to its precious jubaland. for a while Kenya seeing jubaland thriugh ultrasound scan cannot wait to meet its jubaland.

Well uhurro kenyatta and william rutto are really learning and are now really involved in Somalia.

The Kablalax camp can be happy the Absame boys have a true partner now in Kenya.

[grandpakhalif]

Their are many obstacles if Kenya truly wants to establish a proxy state, she has to first of all completely clean out Al shabab from all districts that they claim to control, second of all she has to prevent or atleast strictly control ciidaamada qaranka Somalia loyal to other than Kenya, this will prove to be daunting tasks because many tribes refuse to submit to foreign Africans, it will be nearly impossible for Kenya to convince Rer Gedo, Rer Jilib, and smaller HAG clans. Kenya also has to watchout for Pres. Hassan Sheekh bringing new AMISOM forces to Kismayu,


so its still a lot of challenges and Kenya will probably give up, if it becomes to heated.

[Khalid Ali]

They have time now to train the forces and remove shabaab from other parts since the SFG have been put offside for now unless they come back on the international stage and pull it off to replace the Kenyans.

But they have now the upper hand the Kenyans militarily logistically and diplomatically, Kenya than will be training the raskambooni troops and help them take over more villages while they are coordinating all the attacks and assisting. Now there is no threat coming from Mogadishu. We dont know what the future bring but raskambooni and the Kenyans have played it very smart. The last obstacle was col bare hiiraale and he is no longer a threat the goverment cannot reach Kismayo and the lower jubba and fill the vacuum, Because the vacuum is being filed by raskambooni assisted by the Kenyan government.

[grandpakhalif]

Sadly you are right, as long as KDF is there Ras kambooni will have the upperhand, no one can fight a professional military with ragtag militia weapons not even qaranka ciidamada Somalia, that doesn't mean it will be a breeze resistance will be put up whether from Shabab, pro-SFG shacab and others. How long is Kenya willing to breastfeed her puppets though that's the question, once she leaves pro-SFG clans can easily oust the fragile Kambooni.

[Khalid Ali]

Sadly you are right, as long as KDF is there Ras kambooni will have the upperhand, no one can fight a professional military with ragtag militia weapons not even qaranka ciidamada Somalia, that doesn't mean it will be a breeze resistance will be put up whether from Shabab, pro-SFG shacab and others. How long is Kenya willing to breastfeed her puppets though that's the question, once she leaves pro-SFG clans can easily oust the fragile Kambooni.

For as long as it takes they have enough time they have a state now in kismayo Kenya will be supporting this state diplomatically with money with trainings untill they create the buffer zone a state that protects Kenyas bounderies with Somalia and that has very good relations with kenya. Its a win win , ogaden gets a full autonomous state with an administration while kenya can protect its security. So they will continue to invest in Jubbaland.

[grandpakhalif]

You realize Gedo will not be part of this state? So how do the Kenyans plan to secure their border when many pro-SFG/pro-Shabab are in Gedo? Most Gedoites are against KDF so they will not accept to be ruled from Nairobi.

Jubbaland project is finished as long as Gedoites don't support it.

[Khalid Ali]

You realize Gedo will not be part of this state? So how do the Kenyans plan to secure their border when many pro-SFG/pro-Shabab are in Gedo? Most Gedoites are against KDF so they will not accept to be ruled from Nairobi.

Jubbaland project is finished as long as Gedoites don't support it.

The focus is first the lower jubba remove shabaab from there and pacify the region and then move towards the middle jubba and have some sort of state building there . And from there gedo will be taken first the 2 jubba regions. Than Kenya and Jubbaland will work towards gaining political control of Gedo with aw libaax and fartaag and other merexaans who are under the Jubbaland admin. Gedo is the last objective first the 2 juba's I believe when the wounds heal of the last attack in Kismayo. Merexaan and ogaden will grow closer. And many will see that the hawiye led government has nothing to offer them. The issue between ogaden and merexaan is power control and powersharing nothing else i dont think merexaan cares about the Mogadishu led government, just before the clash u were supporting jubbaland so was qoroxay and Typhoon. I believe when the wounds heal they will grow closer but not for now it needs reconciliation between the 2 clans.

[grandpakhalif]

This is bad news for Somalia she never will be a powerful central state prior to '91 arise again, only weak fragmented autonomous states hinged to a foreign power.

[Khalid Ali]

This is bad news for Somalia she never will be a powerful central state prior to '91 arise again, only weak fragmented autonomous states hinged to a foreign power.

it will take decades for that to happen Somalia is a balkanized country not officially but in reality it is , dictatorial rule can keep them together with a strong force but with out that The Kenyans and Ethiopians have found true allies in Somalias autonomous regions. Jubbaland was part of British east Africa it was always closer To Kenya than Somalia. So jubbaland will have closer relations with Kenya than with Somalia.

[DANGIRL]

Kenya is a country that's destine to fail in the near future and you believe they can actually create a proxy state?


Dumbass!!

[whitehartlane]

You realize Gedo will not be part of this state? So how do the Kenyans plan to secure their border when many pro-SFG/pro-Shabab are in Gedo? Most Gedoites are against KDF so they will not accept to be ruled from Nairobi.

Jubbaland project is finished as long as Gedoites don't support it.

The focus is first the lower jubba remove shabaab from there and pacify the region and then move towards the middle jubba and have some sort of state building there . And from there gedo will be taken first the 2 jubba regions. Than Kenya and Jubbaland will work towards gaining political control of Gedo with aw libaax and fartaag and other merexaans who are under the Jubbaland admin. Gedo is the last objective first the 2 juba's I believe when the wounds heal of the last attack in Kismayo. Merexaan and ogaden will grow closer. And many will see that the hawiye led government has nothing to offer them. The issue between ogaden and merexaan is power control and powersharing nothing else i dont think merexaan cares about the Mogadishu led government, just before the clash u were supporting jubbaland so was qoroxay and Typhoon. I believe when the wounds heal they will grow closer but not for now it needs reconciliation between the 2 clans.

Well analysed, sooner or later the mareexaan will come good. Whether they like it or not, the greater bulk of support for hiiraale is simply lack of any other significant alternative hence the the moral support for hiiraale.

They know that xamar doesnt have the political maturity to form a balanced and tribal free government and will not hesitate to pull the trigger on them..and I also believe that reer gedo are fully aware of the intention of the federal involvement in jubaland administration. a second darood state is unacceptable and will not be entertained regardless of the cost and time.

UNFORTUNATELY mareexaan while fully being aware of the situation yet are willing to sacrifice the jubaland initiative, simply because of usage of nomadic mentality and sheer stupidity and zero percentage of knowledge in the art of political maturity. Its like they havent learned a thing in the past two decades... where as the northern clans have learned a long time ago that, "peace prevails war every time" the mereexaan very much like the hawiyaha (oday xaad and suldaan axmad and the recent habir gidir kombaayas) indicate towards the fact that these folks look things from 2 perspectives.
▪unaka iska leh
▪If I cant have it, neither can you

This school of thought is unproductive in every aspect and will only damage those tht practice it.