possibilities

[sahal80]

Ala shaykh had their reasons to leave and had even written their departure on their hands like the road map and the post transitional era...all the local pre-post transitional powers will not go hand by hand in this era along with the superior post transitional center, one is local while the other is like global and is there to make the contracts

Many didn't know that dam jadid would make it, the quesition is would they leave us too on the edge of their vision 2016 or even before that where no elections and where they could find some one to replace them through the parliament

The problem of dam jadid is that the people of the capital have no connections with their programme so will encounter many security difficulties, some theory says; for this reason the next president too will have to come from this region though the current one hasn't made a lot of changes

Supposedlly if the issue was about the money, the new era will get its millions to improve the scurity and army forces.

How far have dam jadid come and what is their cards to stay in the power even if this costs to post-pone the elections?

They have recently accomplished some major task, this important success was motivated by the coming millions also the energy investments in somalia will go ahead after seeing this...so its like killing two birds with one stone

As they have conquered or weakened the strength of the regional administrations, their biggest card is to bring back the north through a power sharing process, they started advertising on this policy

If they couldn't achieve this within their era, their extended group al islax may be available especially badiyow or we may see the return of the ala shaykh like the heritages abdi aynte or dr afyare ilmi from qatar.

[oxymoron]

The dawlad in xamar is for South-Central Somalia, the west has made that very clear. Puntland iyo Somaliland are two independent states. We even get our aid handed directly to us.

So what power did Xamar take away from the North?

[sahal80]

Lol there is no more dual-tack approach towards somalia, nowadays there is a center-focus-approach.

[gurey25]

The dawlad in xamar is for South-Central Somalia, the west has made that very clear. Puntland iyo Somaliland are two independent states. We even get our aid handed directly to us.

So what power did Xamar take away from the North?

you just have to interject somaliland into every little subject, if we talk about sushi or whales you will somehow bring somaliland into this???

This is your problem, solve your issues with your rightful government and stop the calacaal.

[Even123]

All the momentary indications states that the north will be dealt with after 2016!,... you can tell by the signs such as DFS keeps postponing the Somalia-somaliland talks simply because the DFS has many urgent priority works facing them that needs to be dealt with as soon as possible before any political matters concerning up north!

[sahal80]

All the momentary indications states that the north will be dealt with after 2016!,... you can tell by the signs such as DFS keeps postponing the Somalia-somaliland talks simply because the DFS has many urgent priority works facing them that needs to be dealt with as soon as possible before any political matters concerning up north!

Great analysis. it should be before 2016 bc this is one of their big cards to stay in the power.

Of course we are talking about the somali govts tactics not the somaliland side.

According to the somaliland officials, the turkish ambassador in mogadishu have told them that the somali govt is now busy with making local administrations so he asked them what time they would like the talks to re-start and they said on dec.

[Even123]

Thanks for your time and analysis brother sahal, good read

[sahal80]

Even

I'm more like to have your analysis in my threads instead of just me posting mine.

[gurey25]

All the momentary indications states that the north will be dealt with after 2016!,... you can tell by the signs such as DFS keeps postponing the Somalia-somaliland talks simply because the DFS has many urgent priority works facing them that needs to be dealt with as soon as possible before any political matters concerning up north!

Great analysis. it should be before 2016 bc this is one of their big cards to stay in the power.

Of course we are talking about the somali govts tactics not the somaliland side.

According to the somaliland officials, the turkish ambassador in mogadishu have told them that the somali govt is now busy with making local administrations so he asked them what time they would like the talks to re-start and they said on dec.

Its somalilands interests to move this forward before the 2015 elections, because they will be too busy between end of 2014 and mid 2015.
and this is the main factor for somaliland and moqadishu will find it very difficult to postpone talks to their time of liking.

[original dervish]

Sahal....a lot of your analyses are behind the curve.

I explained long ago that this corrupt regime was nothing other than a vehicle to access aid money and contracts.
All these pseudo religious groups and cults are nothing but organised crime/business networks.

They have no national vision except to accumulate as much Somali aid as possible, while at the same time reducing the amount of aid available to the regions.
A case in point is the recent ludicrous attempt to form a central state overnight. This was specifically carried out by the "interior ministry" to access the new deal money, which will go to the regions.

There has been no worthwhile development of Somali institutions...the police, judiciary, army, civil servants barely exist, and if they do they`re totally inept, corrupt and ineffective.
The attempt to dress these factions up as some sort of ideological/political groups is laughable.
They are the successor to the moryaan in another guise.

Gurey...the southern "Govt" care nothing for the north, they only want access to the aid and resources.
They will never cede northern Somalia.

[gurey25]

Gurey...the southern "Govt" care nothing for the north, they only want access to the aid and resources.
They will never cede northern Somalia.

They do not have the choice, the north has already seceded and they cannot delay the acknowledgment of that fact any longer.

The powers behind the SFG do not see federalism as in its interests, federalism is a puntland creature that was forced on the previous TFG.
Hassan shiekhs priorities is to slowly suffocate your federalism project till the elections of 2016 that will provide them with the power to completly erase it..

[sahal80]

Sahal....a lot of your analyses are behind the curve.

I explained long ago that this corrupt regime was nothing other than a vehicle to access aid money and contracts.
All these pseudo religious groups and cults are nothing but organised crime/business networks.

They have no national vision except to accumulate as much Somali aid as possible, while at the same time reducing the amount of aid available to the regions.
A case in point is the recent ludicrous attempt to form a central state overnight. This was specifically carried out by the "interior ministry" to access the new deal money, which will go to the regions.

There has been no worthwhile development of Somali institutions...the police, judiciary, army, civil servants barely exist, and if they do they`re totally inept, corrupt and ineffective.
The attempt to dress these factions up as some sort of ideological/political groups is laughable.
They are the successor to the moryaan in another guise.

Gurey...the southern "Govt" care nothing for the north, they only want access to the aid and resources.
They will never cede northern Somalia.

i get your point but somalia is already under an african control so these global contracts will protect the somali govt who also likes to change amisom into a global mission. the powerful pen.

[sahal80]

OD

They have failed in security so amisom was given the initiative

But they have done the reconciliation, this card gives them a new energy

North-south power sharing card can take them to ends.

[Even123]

Sahal....a lot of your analyses are behind the curve.

I explained long ago that this corrupt regime was nothing other than a vehicle to access aid money and contracts.
All these pseudo religious groups and cults are nothing but organised crime/business networks.

They have no national vision except to accumulate as much Somali aid as possible, while at the same time reducing the amount of aid available to the regions.
A case in point is the recent ludicrous attempt to form a central state overnight. This was specifically carried out by the "interior ministry" to access the new deal money, which will go to the regions.

There has been no worthwhile development of Somali institutions...the police, judiciary, army, civil servants barely exist, and if they do they`re totally inept, corrupt and ineffective.
The attempt to dress these factions up as some sort of ideological/political groups is laughable.
They are the successor to the moryaan in another guise.

Gurey...the southern "Govt" care nothing for the north, they only want access to the aid and resources.
They will never cede northern Somalia.

i get your point but somalia is already under an african control so these global contracts will protect the somali govt who also likes to change amisom into a global mission. the powerful pen.

Look like sahal, you previous analyses of Amisom going to Kismayo is being realised but the short blow to all is that Ethiopia will change their shirt to an Amisom one and they will head there , anyway not to change thread the UN still hasn't confirmed yet that they will assume control of the Amisom forces, lest President Hassan has given the Uganda-AU led Amisom a second chance to lead the force as African led initiative!

[original dervish]

Gurey.....Just like in S/L, H.Sheikh has no power over P/L, except nominal federal authority.
Federalism is the internationally agreed remedy for Somalia. Whether it came from P/L or the garbage can it`s here to stay.

Tell me about the "talks" and what you believe will be their final outcome.