the gap between dam jadid and west

[sahal80]

The somali regime is not a puppet regime as you may think, its led by a manipulative group that has their own exclusive agenda and play some geopolitical cards each time

There is the problem

At the start, the west has supported strongly hassan sheekh to the point that the bordering states were advising them not to adopt such a strategic decision quickly

Yes the west would have implemented that policy if he was capable to make an inclusive govt but he can't even pick his pm without having some subclan background due to his political, religious and clan adherences so, in this case, providing for him financial and military aid can be a disaster!

In other words, president hassan is a faithful supporter of a cause and he prefers this over the westreners backing!

Anyways its too late now so whats their plan?

Firstly you need to understand two important things

The west though at some times they would like to support a politicians with a political devotion that they can closely work with them, generally they don't care about somalis and who rules them bad or good unless they have links with al shabaab. they only have two polices: containing al shabaab disease inside somalia before it reaches them and wanting to invest in somalia to stop the china scramble and this needs stability being there so they support all these political settlements in somalia

As for the regeme, they can't change him because of being elected but will wait till its term ends meantime they would release reports that are disfiguring his image in preparation of that change however, dam jadid believes that they will get re-elected!

Other allies and the regimes biggest mistake

I always talked about turkey involving in the security policy but this plan may come to a halt because of miscalculations that was made by the regime who tried to involve this with the amisom/IGAD countries!

fearing from ethiopia and that the west may dislike it because of not wanting a geoplitical change in this region, they suggested to form a turkish-amisom/igad joint military committee that will deal with the SNA!

Turkey didn't like it and may got angery about it not because of suggesting this but this been agreed before between the govt and her wich is trying to help them and without a notice they changed the things!

Atleast if they made this known to turkey and released to her their fears she may had sorted it out with the west

Turkey who sees itself a big NATO country won't intertain about sitting in the same table with shyt like ethiopia, uganda and burundi!

Dam jadids new orientation, saudi-UAE policy

The arabs are badly divided between three camps; the saudi arabia/UAE, egypt, bahrain, the qatar, falastin, sudan camp the syrian, iraq camp so moving to saudi and UAE camp will be on the cost of qatar!

For more details here are some of my old posts.
by sahal80 » Fri Sep 20, 2013 2:05 pm
Firstly america has strongly welcomed hassan sheekhs accession to the power but at a time when the politics were on the verge of agravation they contacted with him and their clues were back then not too adjacent with his long term policies however he insisted all of his short term and long term plans and the agenda was postponed to this visit

Now, since the invitation, there have been a good political accomplishments like the peace agreements, reconciliations, national conferece vision2016...all of these accomplishments have been welcomed internationally.

This makes him a capable leader who can deliver his own national policies...however, it looks like the implementation could have a different tactics to make it more adjacent and central where the president plays dowr al bu toula(the starring role) and the speaker or the pm saying different things that goes along with their bases according to the tawzeec al adwaar policy( distibution of roles)

Some groups have won over others because of some situation and have been told to wait for the post-interim era as nothing states now anything except an agreement...are these groups preparing now for the contra attack where the world can hear their voices?

by sahal80 » Sat Jul 13, 2013 8:35 pm

Kenya and ethiopia are somalias most influential external players, these two countries are againist strong somali central state and told this to the west for a long time.

They only accept a fragmented somalia with some regions closely linked to them.

These two countries are the driver behind the federalism, thus, the somali politics should be fragmented along tribal lines based on three federal tribal states...

These countries have sent a lot of secret reports about somalia to the west, using the jihadist, refugee and security cards and indeed had a significant influence on them.

Though the westreners didn't approved all their suggestions but still all their clues about somalia are from these countries and this is why hassan sheekh is confronting all these external problems




Now what is the american position?

America has approved on hassan sheekhs 6 pillars policy in order to maintain stability and peace first but there is some clash between them wich is about the federalism. The US has asked him to appoint his interim governors but after this term ends has to bring the system closer to a genuine federalism by holding a regional elections...
All that is agreed, the problem is that Hassan sheekh wants the govt to control the port revenues in the federalism era so he refused to listen to their clues saying that he will rather resign than grant the federal states this status specifically in the south

The reason is that he fears such a federal state will have contracts with foreing countries on its port and resources and though getting and interim support he doesn't want to sign what could damage him in the long run.

[XimanJaale]

sahal one thing agree with you is that xassan sheekh is far from a puppet. The guy might seem maskiin but he is determined with whatever he has in mind. Waa niinka warqad af-carabi ku akrhiyay infront of a large audience. Wuu indo adag yahay xasan sheekh.

[sahal80]

sahal one thing agree with you is that xassan sheekh is far from a puppet. The guy might seem maskiin but he is determined with whatever he has in mind. Waa niinka warqad af-carabi ku akrhiyay infront of a large audience. Wuu indo adag yahay xasan sheekh.

agree!

Hassan sheekh doesn't listen except his group, that is the truth.

I don't agree his arabic speech was bad as amin amir thinks, his pronouncian was good, not a traditional somali!

I will try to post for you some arabic lines says al riyis al somaal kaana afsaxahum!

I know its jk but it means he is not arabic and was good at it not mocking about somalis while the true arab leaders where making grammatical mistakes!.

He knows good arabic but he can't make a lecture in arabic. I have seen him answering arabic Q without translations, some of them were north african who speack quickly.

[XimanJaale]

whether he knows good arabic or not, he is still has the willpower to fight back against people that criticise or ruin his image. He defends himself very well. He is also very sneaky, it is also very hard to read him. He might tell u something but inside he might think of something else. Those kind of leaders can sometimes be successful not always. Depends on their strategies and planning. Can he pull it off? We will see. I don't hate him neither do I like him. I do get annoyed at him sometimes, but one thing i'am is realistic. I know that it is not the president that strenghtens a government, but the the whole government at large including it's people. If the government work together properly and the citizens work with their government then this government will pull it off. Lets see how the 3 big leaders work together.

Regards to dam jadiid, they are a small groupie surrounding the president but that is understandable atleast they are not a tribal groupie but a political one.

[sahal80]

whether he knows good arabic or not, he is still has the willpower to fight back against people that criticise or ruin his image. He defends himself very well. He is also very sneaky, it is also very hard to read him. He might tell u something but inside he might think of something else. Those kind of leaders can sometimes be successful not always. Depends on their strategies and planning. Can he pull it off? We will see. I don't hate him neither do I like him. I do get annoyed at him sometimes, but one thing i'am is realistic. I know that it is not the president that strenghtens a government, but the the whole government at large including it's people. If the government work together properly and the citizens work with their government then this government will pull it off. Lets see how the 3 big leaders work together.

Regards to dam jadiid, they are a small groupie surrounding the president but that is understandable atleast they are not a tribal groupie but a political one.

agree!
Its hard to guess him as he is so secretive and doesn't make reactions but I heard some secrets about him; that he is a polite to every one who doesn't know him no matter small or big but at the work he is totally different and its hard to work with him

He may make some lies/fake promises, this has happened to a lot of clans, mps, politicians

He is not individually a dictator but works through a close group. If any thing happens between him and the new pm, there are guys who would sort it out

With saacid, there were no guys to sort it because the guys who brought him have become part of the problem.

This pm is a well-educated and has his own barnamaj mostly the security sector, has his own FM, goes to the outside world though concentrating on the arab world, his next stages will be brusless and paris though it may take time. he has his own space.

[XimanJaale]

agree!
Its hard to guess him as he is so secretive and doesn't make reactions but I heard some secrets about him; that he is a polite to every one who doesn't know him no matter small or big but at the work he is totally different and its hard to work with him

He may make some lies/fake promises, this has happened to a lot of clans, mps, politicians

He is not individually a dictator but works through a close group. If any thing happens between him and the new pm, there are guys who would sort it out

With saacid, there were no guys to sort it because the guys who brought him have become part of the problem.

This pm is a well-educated and has his own barnamaj mostly the security sector, has his own FM, goes to the outside world though concentrating on the arab world, his next stages will be brusless and paris though it may take time. he has his own space.

Saacid is old skool. Most of his backers are either retired, less influential in parliament or powerless. In Somalia today in order to be powerful u will need to have influence in the parliament. Make allies with certain MPs etc. I don't really like this parliament, half of them are corrupt and only care about cash. The other half are maskiin and also not so politically savy.

Somalia in 2016 needs a clean parliament free from warlords or former politicians. It also needs a clear understanding of rights and rules between leaders. There has been frequent PM vs President clashes or President vs speaker.

Abdiwali the new PM has larger connections compared Saacid, he also more of the same political ground as the president in terms of allies and networks. So i doubt there will be any large feud between him and the president.

One leader that I really like is Jawaari, this guy is a mastermind. He is cool and on the point, he doesn't turn or twist he is very direct.

So far the politics in somalia is not so bad. Its all about timing now.

[sahal80]

the new pm had relations before with some dj personalities, these guys are the connection between him and the president and they act as neutral between them

When saacid was there, the people were divided between two camps

Now when it comes to the pm, the prez doesn't involve farah abdulqadir and abdi karim guleed.

The same thing goes for the pm, he doesn't involve outsiders

Prez hassan is not looking for another conflict bc it will destroy what remined from his image so he knows this

Pm abdiwali having seen and knowing no one will benefit from a new khilaf he doesn't search for a conflict.

Simple as that.

[Murax]

Sahal indeed. The West knows that they need Dam Jadiid badly, so that plays in Dam Jadiid's favor.

[XimanJaale]

Sahal indeed. The West knows that they need Dam Jadiid badly, so that plays in Dam Jadiid's favor.

Somalia is not in a transitional phase anymore, Somalia doesn't need the west now. It can make partnership with the east with it wants. Therefore yes the government has some leverage now.