Has Al Shabab been defeated?

[AbdiJohnson]

Obviously the organization still exists but what is their current state?

I am,

Abdi "Does the civil war end with Shabab's defeat?" Johnson

[original dervish]

Has the Taliban been defeated?

[AbdiJohnson]

The Taliban is different. Shabab doesn't have the level of support the Taliban gets from the powerful Pashtun clans. Every Pashtun has a family member that is apart of the Taliban. People tend to forget the Taliban are Pashtun nationalists.

I am,

Abdi "You cant compare Al Shabab with the Taliban" Johnson

[SultanOrder]

They won't be defeated until they don't have the ability to fight no more. If their revenues shrink, they let go of forces, which is the forces that turn themselves over or k just go home. But as soon as they have more revenue they can quickly grow back up. Alshabaab do not thin themselves out, and they don't wager to many fonts, that is why their is only a few hot spots. Also, when confronted with overwhelming force they retreat. They learned their mistake from Xamar by contesting it for too long and wasting too much of their resources, a mistake they have never repeated. This why they left Baraawe and Kismaayo so quickly. This also why the govt Amisom move so slow. Because if you capture a town you have to have enough forces to hold it, since you have no place to concentrate all your forces against, this why these types of wars take forever to win and in some countries rebels have been able to fight for decades.

[Octavius]

Their absolute and final defeat would only be the start of the next phase of the conflict. There is no group or entity that is able to take over from them.

[eliteSomali]

Unfortunately not. The only people that can defeat AS are Somalis since it is them that they target the most and cause mischief. I think an approach that we can try would be to assassinate leaders of AS. Mas madaxaa laga dilaa. It's futile combatting them in an open ground, at least at the moment, because they are more united and most of them are brainwashed. You can't really fight someone who wants to die.

[Octavius]

EliteSomali in natural ecosystem, when the prime predator is killed a vacuum is created. In that vacuum the secondary predator thrives and assumes the position of the primary predator. Who would that be if Alshabab were defeated?

[eliteSomali]

^ Warlords vying over control of regions, perhaps? It's always been like that.

[Caesar]

If all somalis quit al shabaab wouldn't it fail though