Thegoodshepherd's take on Federalism in Somalia

[thegoodshepherd]

Background of federalism
This is a rather broad topic to broach but I will try. When Abdullahi Yusuf was pushing for federalism, no one knew exactly why he was doing it.
Abdiqasim even asked him "why do you want to divide the country?" Abdullahi Yusuf refused to attend the Carta conference in Djibouti if federalism was not on the table.
Many are left wondering why? Federalism in Somalia must be understood as a project raised and nurtured by Puntland. By 1993 the remnants of SSDF had gained control over Bari, Nugaal, Mudug, and parts of Sool and Sanaag. Puntland was then formed on the recommendation of elders in 1998. Many attendants of the Garowe conference wanted outright secession, while some wanted some level of autonomy with in the state of Somalia. Abdullahi Yusuf managed to get these two groups to agree on a federal system.
This was a way of greatly reducing the power of Xamar in the Northeast but at the same time not declaring secession. All politicians sent from Puntland to Mogadishu have since furthered this idea and spread it to the rest of the nation. Now the people of bay and Bakool want federalism, Jubaland has since gained recognition as a federal state, there are other states that support federalism in Galgadud and southern Mudug. Why did such a diverse amount of clans now chose to adopt federalism you ask?? Because federalism is a sure-fire way to make sure that your clan has full and total control over its lands. What I will argue is that this vision of federalism never should have been promoted in the south due to great difference in population make up and clan boundaries.

The looming crisis

Puntland promoted this system of federalism so that never again would their people be abused from Xamar. They also honestly thought that federalism would be good for the other clans like it was for them. People of the same clan can rule each other easier. A hawiye is willing to tolerate rule by another hawiye subclan, a darood is willing to tolerate rule by another darood subclan, they may hate it but they will tolerate it. The problem is that the further south you go, clan is not so clear cut and there is too much intermixing. While in the north a dominant clan can expect to make up 80% of a gobol's population, this is unheard of in the south. A dominant clan in the south is dominant if it makes up more than 40% of the population. This makes the adoption of federalism in the south a ticking time bomb. As soon as Alshabab are gone, they will be gone soon, I believe there will be a scramble for land. I also expect to see a lot of clan cleansing in the south, as clans attempt to make a region their own. Some states like Hiiraan, lower shabelle, middle Juba will become host to bloodbaths of an extraordinary caliber. If you think tribal war has been snuffed out of the somali people I urge you to think again. Mark my words federalism and the struggle over land will become the next chapter of the somali civil war. Federalism will destroy whatever stability Somalia has gained.

P.S.
I am a staunch supporter of federalism because it has helped my people, these are just observations.

[GeoSeven]

Some states like Hiiraan, lower shabelle, middle Juba will become host to bloodbaths of an extraordinary caliber

Why would that happen?

[Khalid Ali]

Federalism can never work in southern Somalia , you have the Lower shabelle claimed by 3 clans Dir Hawiye and digil mirifle.
You have Jubba region contested between the Darood clans and other Clans
You have the Hiiraan case the Hiiraan people have no interest to share a mega state with Habar gedir in mudug and galguuud
You have the division between sacad and Saelebaan it will take all of concessions to bring these clans together
We also have the status of Banadir that needs to be discussed the people there have needs to
Tribal federalism is like toxic for the South it its not like Puntland where you have dominating factor the Majeerteen followed by smaller darood clans

[thegoodshepherd]

I see a hawiye state in mudug and galgadud fighting in Hiraan. I see a darood state in gedo, lower juba, and western middle juba fighting for the east of middle juba. I see a digil mirifle state in bay bakool fighting for lower shabelle. That is why I said much blood will be spilt.

[thegoodshepherd]

My case in a pictorial form:
There is no way in hell that federalism can work in such a situation. All of these clans and sub-clans have too little land to form any kind administration.
Jubaland can however work because the region is a lot less diverse than the central and south central regions.