Substance wrote:Gurey, thats good insight and numbers that i was not even aware of but ISIS strenghts is their asymmetric warfare and their overall tactics involving bombs and suicide. The kurds can fight in a normal warfare as they have proven against the turks but how is their counterinsurgency and can they deal with the propaganda coming from ISIS? They probably have cells installed in the kurdish regions. I think aswell that the ISIS have the quiet blessing of America and Israel. This might be one of the reasons Bagdad will fall. The strategy being played is divide and conquer with the aim to weaken Iran and Syria.
ISIS swim in a sunni arab lake, they cannot operate in kurdistan or in Shia areas.
The peshmerga can go down and take mosul anytime they want, but they will face a hostile arab population, ISIS is not problem, they will
melt away and fight a guerilla war...
The real danger to ISIS is Qasem Soleimani and his elite Iranian brigades,
this one man changed the Syrian war 180 degrees, on all fronts Assad is winning because Soleimani is running the show, all the syrian generals take direct orders from him, and his staff run the entire war effort.
2 of his lietenents have been sent to Iraq, and a few hundred men, you should watch carefully what happens next, because it will not be good for the ISIS.
One thing you should know about soliemani is that he is an evil genius, he plays the psychological game very well.
Do you know his latest trick in syria?
due to his suggestions the forces of assad have been behaving strangley the last few months.
They have been treating sunni civilians very well, and have even been treating FSA army well.
They have started freeing FSA soldiers just like that, and telling them to go home to their families.
What does this do to future battles?
When combined with inflicting severe tactical defeats , it encourages people to surrender and give up weapons knowing that you will likely not be harmed, if you dont believe it, your friend who was a former prisoner will tell you exactly how he was treated.
recently there have been mass surrenders, and areas re-captured by the Assad forces have been quite.
It looks nice doesnt it...
but the evil thing about this strategy is that first of all , all non native syrians i.e mujahids from other countries are tortured for information and then shot in the back of the neck and burried in mass graves.
This is why they are fighting to the death when they cannot escape.
and all those freed syrian rebels are photographed and fingerprinted because as soleimani has said,
in 2 to 3 years when we have total victory and peace.
We can always look up the files and arrest all those rebels in our own time without any distractions.
fuckin evil bastard ,...
This is the guy ISIS have to deal with,
one group of eveil bastards , against another far more evil and capable one.
the level of foresight by this Qasem Soleimani. Your argument makes sense why they cant take the kurdish region but aside of iranian involvment Bagdad is up for grabs.