So what is the strategy at play here?

[SultanOrder]

SL reject the representatives of the FSG because they include (to use a coined term) "ethnic somalilanders". Though, I don't know how much water that argument holds, the question is what is next? You guys gave the ultimatum of not going back to talks if they include those representatives. So basically the ball is in the FSG's court.

That leaves a few possibilities:

1. FSG doesn't concede and the talks end there. So what will SL government do next to achieve their goals? Will they try to seek international pressure on FSG?

2. FSG concedes and talks continue, but FSG receives certain concessions.

3. SL concedes and talks continue, but SL receives certain concessions.

Obviously, everything that one does in talks has to have some kind of implication to ones greater strategy. So I'm sure SL is not being just reactionary, and they have an agenda, but how good is the strategy?

Also, why did the FSG change their strategy? Are they finally playing hardball? I remember the Ankara meeting, the first one I believe, SL showed up with a huge entourage of Dhulbahante/Gedabursi ministers, not to mention Faysal Warrabe and other opposition members. Did they show their hand too soon?

My recommendation to the FSG is to shelve the issue, and take it up again when they are in a stronger position (my stance from the beginning). If not that, get huge concessions from SL and the international community. For instance, if the issue goes to mediation, choose the mediators, limit the scope of the talks, etc.

As for something that Emperior would say, such as we have shown the IC that we are willing to cooperate but it is the Walanwayne that are not serious, therefore just recognize us. Well, that is assuming that talking to the FSG was a precondition set by the IC to recognize SL or to even consider it, and I don't believe any such indication or condition has ever been given.

One thing we know for sure is that the IC whether EU/US or AU has no interest in unilaterally recognizing SL, and has never indicated it. So I hope we won't go down that road in our discussion.

One can say that it is perfectly fine that can live without international recognition, and SL can remain a de-facto independent state. But obviously that is not the goal nor desire of the SL government, as recognition has always been a stated goal for all the governments of SL, so I don't think it would be fruitful to go down that road.

To end, this all for fun, and I have no personal stake whether SL is recognized or not, nor do I have any power to affect the current situation. This is just a relevant issue, that I often visit when there are interesting developments. So let's refrain from the ad hominem attacks.

[Xildiiid]

What gives Somalia the legitimacy to represent the Somali republic and claim Somaliland? Both Somaliland and Somalia were constituent republics of this state under an illegal union. Somalia has no right to claim Djibouti and the same goes for Somaliland.

If the Somaliland officials had any brain, they wouldn't deal let alone talk with an entity that wrongfully claims our territory.

[SultanOrder]

What gives Somalia the legitimacy to represent the Somali republic and claim Somaliland? Both Somaliland and Somalia were constituent republics of this state under an illegal union. Somalia has no right to claim Djibouti and the same goes for Somaliland.

If the Somaliland officials had any brain, they wouldn't deal let alone talk with an entity that wrongfully claims our territory.

SL has a goal, and they see the talks as a means to achieve that goal. As for FSG's legitimacy, well we all know that it is the IC that gave that legitimacy as the heir to the Somali Republic. Is that legitimate, are there legal issues, I don't believe that it is in contention because SL is not bringing the issue up, probably because the IC won't by it.

Xildiid, I can see where you are coming from, but how will that lead to the international recognition that SL seeks?

[LilEmperor]

War hee deh Somaliland ana ***** dammit

[Lancer]

Recognition is the end goal but that doesn't mean we will compromise anything for it. The talks is or at least was a means to that goal but if that means we will have to sit down with people who originally hail from Somaliland it shows Somalia is trying to internalize this whole thing which forced the SL government to reject it. The talks have collapsed for now but if Turkey or any of the other mediators are going to try and start it up it will require preconditions like none of the Somalilanders can be represented in these talks like it was before in the other talks. If they refuse then Status quo the will remain for the foreseeable future.

[SultanOrder]

Recognition is the end goal but that doesn't mean we will compromise anything for it. The talks is or at least was a means to that goal but if that means we will have to sit down with people who originally hail from Somaliland it shows Somalia is trying to internalize this whole thing which forced the SL government to reject it. The talks have collapsed for now but if Turkey or any of the other mediators are going to try and start it up it will require preconditions like none of the Somalilanders can be represented in these talks like it was before in the other talks. If they refuse then Status quo the will remain for the foreseeable future.

Who were the ministers that SL rejected. I only know of the Ceyr Minister of Information, that was rejected, I don't know the other clans.

FSG, claims to represent all the people of the Somali Republic, they have mp's, judges, and ministers in the government hailing from the North, so don't you think they have a strong argument to include them in the talks?

[Xildiiid]

There wasn't a legal unification process to begin with. In order for two states to unite legally there has to be a binding document, now this document did exist but it was only signed in Hargeisa which makes the whole ''union'' null and void because it wasn't signed bilaterally.

When it comes to the IC, who gave them the right to make Somalia the heir of the Somali republic? In order for Somalia to even be considered an heir there has to be a legal union. Secondly, since the republic was made up by two equal entities, one cannot dominate the other.

Somaliland's issue of independence and sovereignty comes down to geo politics. The AU's fact finding mission to Somaliland in 2005 states that Somaliland is a unique case given the fact that it doesn't violate any of the charters of AU, for instance the Cairo resolution and it has historical legitimacy. A Somaliland delegation was invited by Ghana's president to speak at an AU summit but Egypt and Sudan threatened to leave the union if Somaliland was given the chance.

In my opinion, international recognition and regaining our long lost sovereignty is the icing on the cake. Our main focus should be a strong Somaliland with strong institutions. We shouldn't deal with Somalia, as long as it claims our territory and doesn't acknowledge historical facts. I was among those who opposed the useless talks from the beginning.

[Lancer]

They rejected the dhulo Minister of Transportaion and a hj not ceyr who is the minister of Information. An MP don't know his name or clan and Qorsheel who I think is warsangeli.

No they don't have a strong argument because Somaliland represents every single person who hails from Somaliland whether they like it or not. The FGS only represents the former Italian part of the Somali Republic and including Waqooyi ministers and MPs in their government won't change our stance.

[sahal80]

First, let's go back to how this process started to understand it better

It started during the london conference in mid 2012, besides the TFG and the road map groups SL was part of it

So the uk has suggested to the TFG and SL to start a dialogue between the two sides

So that's the westren point of view

This means the responsibility is on the SFG just like its relations with the other regions

So it must have some approach for SL

If the authorities in there refuse to cooperate with the SFG bc of this and that, the SFG may reach other northern stakeholders in order to weaken the authorities in there

We r already hearing some of the first meetings to take place in addis ababa

There must be a broker wich is likely to be djibouti who was said has some company that wants to invest in the somali airspace

There may be a compromise of picking the two delegations together and make the SL delegations balanced clan-wise

The SFG may ask too to excluse from the talks some personalities of the other side like hirsi gaab who's belived to be behind this

Finally, SL is not top priority for the SFG as its not part of the agenda 2016 but has responsibility towards her

It will be SL who will be more effected by such disruption and its clear, while the SFG was only there to talk about the cooperations issues and the common benefites, SL was pushing for to talk about the final issues some thing that was never in the SFGs agenda!

Just some possible scenarios from the govts side not my opinion!

I will let the answer for the landers!

[skywalker25]

SL was informed by IC it must seek some sort of accommodation with SFG on its quest for seperation. Now since the SFG is nothing but a Vestle owned by these same stake holders they have no choice but to accept these talks.

The SFG strategy has been one of disrubtion and avoiding the whole topic of succession. Or as is the case now play childish games of getting other northerners to represent them.

The bottom line however has not changed and Somaliland has bolted a long time ago. The SFG will never have any kind of authority in that region..

[SultanOrder]

Skywalker, so you are saying that SFG succeeded in their objective?

Xildiid, so since this is a geopolitical issue, should somaliland try to deal with those countries?

Sahal, interesting, so who are the other groups that SFG is reaching out to, and what has changed from them not including any northern delegates from their side to them including them?

[sahal80]

Many factors

President wants to extend his term, therefore he doesn't want any traditional opposition

The new govt/pm and his political connections who r part of the program

There r people who play an outside role for the govt like abdi hosh and godah use to do and now you think ali khalif as the govts spokenperson!

I don't like to pinpoint the things but I can say they r more open now to all those northern political groups and there r now a lot of their mps who r compaigning for them and meeting them in outside places

Then we may hear new terms such as inclusive talks so that all the sides can accept it if one day an agreement was reached

As I said SL is not part of the 2016 agenda but it has some connections with the political stabilty and the foreing companies who would like to sign oil deals or invest in somalia including turkey

So this govt wants some cooperation between SFG and the regions

Find a solution for the UN and the humanitarian planes who r operating in the north and may get banned in there after mogadishu restores the airspace

All this is about having responsibility but it has no federal policies for SL unless some change happens there.

[sahal80]

Its not that hard to sign oil deals

First the gate will be the SFG, then they can sign tripartite agreement.

[gurey25]

Its not that hard to sign oil deals

First the gate will be the SFG, then they can sign tripartite agreement.

No it is much harder because we do not recognize your authoritym

[jalaaludin5]

For the life of me I cannot understand how a nation that run its affairs for over two decades without recognition but yet managed to outshine countries in much better position, and want to face the UN about the pressing issue of a well over due acknowledgement will use such childish argument. "Ethnic Somalilanders ".

Cigaal (AUN) must be turning in his grave.

what ever next? We will not sit on the same table with that delegation because one of them is the grandson of the man who stole a goat from my great aunt?

Kulmiye taking Somaliland to the kennel.