TheCadaanGuy wrote:Typhoon wrote:The Saudi are like Somalis (sade excluded) when it comes to political and strategic analyses, it’s all based on mythical political allegories
Most of you don`t understand the Herodian culture of khaleej arabs, most of these arabs are educated in American universities and trained by American bureaucrats, so these arabs are imitating American diplomatic Technik and general practises and these arabs lack originality and political perspicacity they are as good as Chinese copy of a iphone.
khaleej arabs are always 2 decades behind the west in terms of trend and it is in that 2 decades that they are being trained to catch up (participation and understanding of the Idea of Progress in the relative sense)
arabs have found to love for the culture of think thanks so they want to be invited and participiate in panels, but they have intellectually noting to contribute
Iranians on the other hand are an intellectual force and they dominate western higher institutions.
There is nothing more sader then prince alwaleed and his narcissism and need for western acceptance.
he thinks he is a 80s American movie about wallstreet and how a young men went from rags to riches and now he needs to be consulted and seen as the Arabian warren buffet (when American call him Arabian warren buffet he gets happy but it an insult because that means alwaleed is inferior to buffet--a copy is never as good as the original)
There is an entire khaleeji class that is westernised and UAE Boise ruling elite exemplify these new trends (UAE recent terror list and UAE female pilot hype is the best example I can give you) which I call khaleeji epistemological defect)
We Somalis are in the process of producing an entire new westernised ruling elite and generation who lack an original worldview and a technic to realise that worldview.
Some of "spy" documents from the Saudi on Somalia is laughably wrong but it doesn't mean all of their other documents are wrong. You know what they say every false claim contains at least little bit of truth on it especially if the one generating those documents have an honest intentions.
This document proves that our fear isn't baseless as many people like to say.
I remember the time when if someone said the government is spying every of their own citizens. That person would have been labelled as a conspiratard and told to keep wearing a tinfoil hat. It all fell apart when Edward Snowden came out.
In this case, it is likely that neither Kenya nor Ethiopia wants the land but they want to control it. This is what's already happening. Leaders from SL, PL and SFG taking a monthly pilgrimage to Ethiopia and important men from Jubbaland to Kenya.
If you know anything about political science and how states operate, you would know that Ethiopia and Kenya are rational entities, whose actions correspond with the behaviour of all states in in terms of pursuing their interest.
What is happing is not annexation because that is against their own interest in the Westphalian nations state system, what they are doing is extending their suzerainty over Somali regions (Somalis consider that undue influence due to their position of weakness and can`t explain that in rational manner)
Ethiopia is more dangerous towards northern regions due to the strategic great game that is unfolding among the great powers.
some of the great powers would not mind Ethiopia controlling Somalia`s northern regions especially the gulf of aden which is important to Europe, india, japan and Israel (future western alliance)
We are in a post-nation state, so direct control is unnecessary as long as there is a core state around which smaller states revolve around, its fine, because that core friendly state can command the highs in regional concert from which futures legitimacy would be derived from as to maintain the balance of power (igad-ethiopia)
South Somalia can have independence aslong as its demilitarised and civil state and it relinquishes irredentism.
Kenya would welcome a stable Somalia, ethiopia would not and keeping in mind what I laid out before.
you will understand why Ethiopia would move away from mere hegemony to full consolidation in the advent of somali state resurrection
The civil war revealed how secure and isolated southern somali is compared to highly visible Ethiopian hegemony in the north (it was there as soon as Somali state collapsed, it very reminiscent of Abyssinian hegemony and rule of north west somalia throughout the ages)
Ethiopia fears southern Somalia militarily in terms of treat perception, but it knows it can never control nor permanently exercise hegemony over it (kenya is struggling with al shabab imagen millions of other Somalis in their state)
