madhibaan & hawiye

[gegiroor]

The report admits that the results were unexpected, but, given birthrates for Somali Bantu in the US and the remoteness of the area with respect to previous estimates, I am not totally surprised. What I really want to see is a link to credible figures on the Cawlyahan and Mohamed Zubeer in the two Jubbas. You got?

Who, what, where?

The regions involved are Lower Juba, Middle Juba and Gedo, which are adjacent to Kenya and Ethiopia.

They cover a combined area of 87,000sqkm and have a total population of around 1.3 million. This includes numerous clans, such as the Ogaden-Darod, Maheran-Darod, Sheekhaal, Coormale, Biimaal, Gaaljecel, Raxanweyn , Dir, Gawaaweyn, Murile, Bejuni Boni and various Bantu groups.

“Due to its natural resources and location, Jubaland has the potential to be one of Somalia’s richest regions, but conflict has kept it chronically unstable for over two decades,” according to the Rift Valley Institute.


Source: http://www.irinnews.org/report/97860/br ... d-jubaland

You were selling us that there are an average of 1.2 million Bantus in the 2 Jubbas (Lower Jubba and Middle Jubba) alone, when the last UN estimate put the entire population of Somalis in the Lower Jubba, Middle Jubba, and Gedo to be 1.3 million people. Are you now gonna tell us that the Bantus in Jubbaland are 92% of the whole population there since you put their figures in 1.2 million? Man, give up, your whole numbering system make no sense. Nice try with the Christian missionary propaganda but you failed to do a little bit of fact checking.

[Grant]

So. No individual figures for the groups, and the total estimate for the region is 1.3M?

It doesn't take a missionary to see that something has to give. We need facts, not allegations. Even if you work off the 900,000 figure and allow for the other areas where Bantus are resident, you still have a very significant number.

I've checked. Now I'm asking you to do the same.

[gegiroor]

The 1.3 Million is a UN estimate in Jubbaland, and I gave you the link. You told us in the 2 Jubbas, there are 1.2 M Bantus. If you do the math of 1.2/1.3 = 92% of the population in the whole of Jubbaland. Now are you gonna convince us 92% of all of the people in Jubbaland are Somali Bantus? Come on, that is an extreme exaggeration

The 900,000 was the UN estimate of the whole Jareerweyne in Somalia in all of the regions in the South. In your estimate, it is not including Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Benadir, and Hiiran.

According to, By F. ELLIOTT, A.S.P. The Geographical Journal, Vol. 41, No. 6 pp. 554-561June 1913, out of the six districts in Jubbaland, Bantus were only around the river. With the exception of Bajuni district, the rest of the 4 districts were dominated by Somalis - where Ogadens made up the overwhelming majority of the Somalis there. Never in recorded census that Bantus made up a sizable number in Jubbaland that can challenge the number of other Somali clans. Even in Jilib and Jamaame, Biyomaal, Sheekhaal, and Gaaljecel made up a sizable number of the people there.

Nevertheless, Somali Bantus are my fellow Somalis and fellow countrymen and countrywomen, and I hope and pray their status in Somalia improves.

[Grant]

The new estimates are based on counting households from the air and then multiplying the number by a guesstimate of the number in each household, which is why the limits are so broad, and also explains why the figures could be so much higher. The estimators were actually seeing the bigger picture.

If you work backwards from even the 900,000, which was an on-ground estimate, you would still have something over 600,000 in the Jubbas. which is nearly half the total estimate you are quoting for all of Jubaland. I realize the demographics have changed over the years as more northerners moved south, but this does not change the facts on the ground. At the barest minimum of counts, the Bantus are at or over majority status at least in the Middle Jubba.

Don't forget that the Bantus have been intentionally degraded and ignored since even before the Italians. and that myths have been created to enforce this. I believe they only got 2 out of 42 seats in the Jubaland assembly. In a one-man, one-vote system this is not going to continue to fly.