The implications of the protests in Ethiopia for Somalis

[Talo alle udaa]

The country of Ethiopia has a bloody history when it comes to changes in leadership and power. The most recent one was the rise to power of Meles Zenawi. His party, the TPLF has bee in power since the 90s after overthrowing the Derg regime led by Mengistu. The TPLF's ability to stay in power has largely been due to Meles Zenawi whose passing in 2012 left a void that was filled by a relatively unknown fella from the south named Hailemaryam. Many believe he has little control of the Military, paramilitary police, and intelligence whose leaders are predominately Tigre.

The TPLF fills the rank and file of all important institutions in Ethiopia. Driven by ethnic ideology, the TPLF has consistently empowered the ethnic Tigray group at the cost of all others. During the last 20 years, TPLF led Meles has committed unimaginable acts of atrocity to the Somalis that live in the Ogaden. By using local tribal militia, he was able to subjugate and bring under control large swathes of land inhabited by Somali Nomads previously ungoverned by prior Ethiopian rulers. During this same time period, with the fall of the Somali regime in the 90s, Meles had a handd in one way or another every single tribal armed group within mainland Somalia contesting for control during the last 20 years. Meles actively participated in every political conference geared towards rebuilding a tangible Somali government.

The fall of mogadishu in 2006 to Ethiopian led forces led to one of the biggest crimes committed against Somali civilians through indiscriminate shelling at the hands of Ethiopia led AMISOM with deaths in the tens of thousands and twice that number becoming refugees and IDPs.

With that background, below I will try to highlight the possible outcomes and what impact the current insurrection in Ethiopia may have on Somali inhabited regions. Any affects will depend on the significance of the political upheaval and or fall out. There are two possible scenarios I have highlighted below

1. Complete change of political order with ensuing chaos. Less likely
-This will likely lead to much blood shed with different ethnic groups within Ethiopia vying for power. It's possible this may lead to mass movements of people and refugees to Somalia. The single biggest impact this will have on the security of Somalia is the vulnerability of newly formed federal administrations, namely the southwest region who primarily depend on Ethiopian troops and Liyuu police for protection from Alshabaab. We can expect a significant power vacuum if Ethiopian troops in Somalia are affected by the changing of guards in Ethiopia which may severely put the nascent government of Somalia at risk and mercy of resurgent Alshabaab.

The impact it will have within the Somali region in Ethiopia is difficult to predict. A large part of it will depend on what happens to the assigned leader IILAY and the Liyu police militia. If the Tigre led EPRDF uses the Liyu police as a cannon fodder for any Oromo uprising it's possibly the somali militia may severely be weakened to have any control within the Somali region. In the possibility of completely breakdown of law and order it's possible for ONLF to fill the vacuum. It's unclear if the ONLF has enough manpower to fulfill such tasks but they may attempt initially. It's also possible for tribal wars and clashes between Somali tribal militias within the region.

2. Weakened Ethiopia-Likeliest scenario.
The current political uprising has loosened the grip of the TPLF on the control of the Ethiopia. For the first time, rebel flags are being flown in cities and towns in Ahmara and Oromo regions, almost unthinkable few months ago. Although a complete change of power may not happen any time soon, the new weakened Ethiopia will likely have impacts in Somalia, the Somali region, and Eritrea.
-A continued suspicious of the rank and file of the Ethiopian military will lead to a weakened morale, inspire previously weakened rebel movement in Ethiopia such as the OLF, ONLF, etc, and may tempt Eritrea to play a more active role in the dismantling of Ethiopia.
-A weakened Ethiopia will have impact on it's role in Somalia as the key bulwark defense against Alshabaab in SW region, the central region, and the Hiiran region.

3. A third scenario could be a peaceful of transfer of power from Tigre to Axmara/Oromo led groups which is unlikely due to deep suspicions and animosity between ethnic groups as well as significant grievances held by the latter groups. This scenario will have the same impact on Somalis as scenario 2.


Note: Above views are mine, relevant comments appreciated.

[cyanide]

Doqonkii Ogaden is doing nothing

[luis1]

Congratulations for your opinions Talo, they are very interesting. I dont think these Amhara and Oromo protests will cause the destruction of Ethiopian state. I know, Ethiopia is living a difficult situation, right now.


I can not imagine the creation of new nations and countries in Ethiopia but If Ethiopia disappears as a country, this will be very dangerous for the region. Somali civil war could rise its fatalities and damage to somali civilans who live in Ethiopia and Somalia.

I dont know if ONLF is very weak, right now but if Ethiopia reduces its forces in Ogaden, ONLF could capture the entire region and create a new nation.


A violent civil war could begin among somali clans in Ogaden if Ethiopia loses control of Ogaden and Haud.

[original dervish]

The west is already talking to potential leaders/groups.
Another ethnic group will rise to power backed by America.
The only change Somali's will see will be negative.

[AwRastaale]

Regime change is inevitable in Ethiopia but Ethiopia will not collapse.

Ethiopia has a more than 2,000 years of history of violent revolts, conquest and regime changes but in all that it never collapsed.

The torch is always past to the new kid.

Even when the British wiped out the entire Abyssinian House of Tewodros II in the battle of Magdala Ethiopia did not collapse. The leadership just emerged from a new spot/region.

This will not be any different.

The future is more of the past waiting to happen - Einstein.

[RoobleAlWaliid]

Let us hope the status quo remains and Somalis build their region.

[cyanide]

Fuck Amxaar Xaarbeshi and other Xaarbeshis

Somaliweyn
ONLF

[GalliumerianSlayer]

The west is already talking to potential leaders/groups.
Another ethnic group will rise to power backed by America.
The only change Somali's will see will be negative.

Somalis are forever doomed.