I have a theory

[Winston]

i strongly believe that somalia is the way it is because of Realpolitik. it is not in the interest of any of the major countries from the west i.e north america and europe and russia along with the east mainly china and other pacific countries to have a strong somali state that can assert itself on the world stage by first drawing up a foreign policy say for example playing the superpowers against each other due to somalia's strategic location in the red sea and indian ocean.
i believe that ethiopia and kenya have been tasked with dividing somalia and keeping it in chaos so that no centralized state arises again, i also believe that alshabab is run by the ethiopian government and the whole point of this massive conspiracy is to make sure that no centralized state which can draw up a independent foreign policy which will affect global trade going through the red sea straights will ever again come to fruition like in the days of the kacaan dictatorship in which barre was playing soviets(russians) and the US against one another due to much of the global economy depending on the trade that goes through the red sea to the Indian ocean and in to the western pacific and vice versa

[Strategic]

that really sums up.

somalis have suffered 26 years of constant famines,draught and clan warfare,warlordism,it has shattered the economy and plunged the country into abject poverty.the average kenyan is much wealthier then the average somali which is dying of starvation/draught every year in some remote location.
if this trend continues ,and alshaaba terror group continues to havoc ,eventually it will be everybody for himself.states will emerge that are clients of ethiopia,kenya and some other countries which become disillusioned with somali state.somalinimo have died,the end result of this realpolitik will be if it is impossible-which i personally believe it is-to function,coexist and not make everything zero sum game.then we should separate into 7 federal states which the foundations are already laid down.these 7 federal entities should become hostile to eachother until they become indepedent nations recognized first by regional states then by countries outside the region which they do bussiness with.that is the best way to put a end to this crazyness started by USC warlords and continues to this day under the guise/banner of alshabab terror group.the same thing is rebranded again and again with the sole purpose of war-profitering and continuation of death and destruction at the expense of the locals in a predatory behavior .if we cant live together,let every qabiil/clan become own state and i am sure we are only the right track.
the consequence of the civil war will be the end of somalia as a nation and emergence of mini-states that are indepedent of eachother.