Somaliland Recognition

[DalJecel60]

Or you get outvoted by real wadanis which are really the majority and you all start crying. Somalidiid Silic uu dhimo

No chance.

But if that happens I have no problem with it.

And you think sool sanaag and cayn are some gifts that you can inherit, ... Even if the residents of these land were not darood you wouldn't get those lands, .. besides of their rich resources, darood ancestors are buried in those lands.... wishful thinking sxb..

Sool Sanaag and Togdheer are part and parcel of Somaliland. This will go through a referendum at some point and I am willing to bet supporters of Somaliland in Sool Sanaag and Togdheer will most certainly outnumber those opposed to it, let alone votes from Woqooyi Galbeed and Awdal.

Delusional Troll

[Sharmarke91]

Regardless of the union, Somaliland will never get recognition without Somalia's support. Therefore, its better to compromise and reach a reasonable understanding were all clans get what they seek.

The legal case of Somaliland is very strong, eventually we will cross one of two bridges:

- Somalia fails to get its shit together, ceases to exist as a viable state and gets overrun by Al Shabab/Ethiopia/Kenya..etc. In this case Somaliland will be fast-tracked into UN de jure recognition.

- Somalia gets its shit together, will have no choice but to sit on the table eventually and will be forced to accept a referendum inside the territories of Somaliland to settle the matter.

The referendum will return an overwhelming yes majority.

There many unknown unknowns, but never doubt two facts:

1- Somaliland will never return to unite with Somalia.

2- Somaliland will never be divided.

The first outcome is highly unlike, although its the one most desired by Somalilanders. Somalia (the former Italian trusteeship) through international support and billions of dollars of investment is re-emerging. its experiencing an era of economic revival and intuitional building. This momentum will only increase. By 2020, Al Shabab will have been eliminated and the interference of the neighbouring countries will cease (at least to some great extent).

However, hypothesising, there is some catastrophe which prevents and halts Somalia paths towards resurrection, Somaliland will not be fast-tracked into UN de cure recognition. In fact Somaliland will be treated no differently to Puntland, Jubaland or any other existing autonomous state of Somalia. What you, might not have realised or you choice to avoid addressing, is the international community has no intent or preference to recognising Somaliland. The IC understands the reason behind Somaliland request and aspiration of independence which is a primitive one based on tribalism. There is no economic, cultural, religious, or even persecutional rationale for independence. Whereas in South Sudan, the youngest country, all those things were present. Additionally, the UN has NO legal right to recognise Somaliland under international law, it would be a matter of infringing on Somalia's sovereignty.

In the second outcome there will not be a referendum on independence for Somaliland. Simply, because Somalia will have no reason and no pressure to recognise Somaliland. In fact, I think Somalia will adopt a different approach which will take a long time but will eventually force Somaliland to get rid off its aspiration for independence and settle to be a federal member of Somalia. This approach will be one of economic sanction and diplomatic isolation. Since Somalia is the recognised entity its empowered to treat Somaliland which ever way it desires.

Which is why I would advice the Isaaq to take this compromise and let go off the SSC regions.

[Ben Dover]

The first outcome is highly unlike, although its the one most desired by Somalilanders. Somalia (the former Italian trusteeship) through international support and billions of dollars of investment is re-emerging. its experiencing an era of economic revival and intuitional building. This momentum will only increase. By 2020, Al Shabab will have been eliminated and the interference of the neighbouring countries will cease (at least to some great extent).

However, hypothesising, there is some catastrophe which prevents and halts Somalia paths towards resurrection, Somaliland will not be fast-tracked into UN de cure recognition. In fact Somaliland will be treated no differently to Puntland, Jubaland or any other existing autonomous state of Somalia. What you, might not have realised or you choice to avoid addressing, is the international community has no intent or preference to recognising Somaliland. The IC understands the reason behind Somaliland request and aspiration of independence which is a primitive one based on tribalism. There is no economic, cultural, religious, or even persecutional rationale for independence. Whereas in South Sudan, the youngest country, all those things were present. Additionally, the UN has NO legal right to recognise Somaliland under international law, it would be a matter of infringing on Somalia's sovereignty.

In the second outcome there will not be a referendum on independence for Somaliland. Simply, because Somalia will have no reason and no pressure to recognise Somaliland. In fact, I think Somalia will adopt a different approach which will take a long time but will eventually force Somaliland to get rid off its aspiration for independence and settle to be a federal member of Somalia. This approach will be one of economic sanction and diplomatic isolation. Since Somalia is the recognised entity its empowered to treat Somaliland which ever way it desires.

Which is why I would advice the Isaaq to take this compromise and let go off the SSC regions.

The first outcome is the most likely to happen.

You do not realise how much shit Somalia's in at the moment. They require upwards of 22,000 foreign troops to keep Al Shabab at bay. This is gives enormous leverage to UNISOM countries including Ethiopia and Kenya who have vested interest in prolonging the status quo. What you wrote above is fan fiction. Somalia will never get rid of Al Shabab; the locals from clans other than Unakaa leh support them.

If it disintegrates furthers, and Al Shabab strengthen their hold on Somalia, then Somaliland will most certainly be fast-tracked into de jure recognition no doubt. Decision makers are already aware of this as a possible outcome. In fact Somaliland got really close to securing recognition between 2006-2008. You would be mistaken to imagine international players would not be able to distinguish between Somaliland or any of Somalia's many maamul goboleed, they are well aware of the realities on the ground.

The IC is well aware of Somaliland's legal case. Indeed South Africa's legal department have published a paper on the case for Somaliland's independence, and the AU fact finding mission came to a similar conclusion. The case is air-tight. The tribal narrative is only claimed by Darod. Somaliland's legal case is actually stronger than that of S.Sudan, I am sure you are aware of this.

A referendum has already been brought up by international partners. I believe Somalia will not be able to get out of it if --big if-- it achieved any measure of stability. It will be carried out on all the territory of Somaliland and you will be given a fair chance to cast your vote on the matter. Whether you bother turning up to vote or not is your business, but the result will return an overwhelming yes no matter what you do.

I am actually confident if a referendum was to be carried out in Togdheer, Sool and Sanaag only, it would return a yes vote too.

Therefore I would say you plan accordingly. Cali Khalif Galaydh knows as much. He is the brightest guy you have, I suggest you follow him.

[Lion104]

From Ras Kamboni to Saylac belongs to Somalia. Al Shabab will be defeated within the next 4 years, what country would give 1/3rd of its territory for free? Lol. The Western countries have already cut aid to Somaliland, and you're talking about giving a tribe recognition?

[Ben Dover]

Dream on.

[original dervish]

I stopped addressing the issue of S/L recognition years ago..........and see no worthwhile reason to alter that position.

[X.Playa]

if somalia is divisible,then so is somaliland.

talk is cheap.

[Tijoux]

the only thing xamar needs to do to bring the secessionists on their knees is to recognize and support samaroon and harti unionists. Very simple and very effective

[DalJecel60]

the only thing xamar needs to do to bring the secessionists on their knees is to recognize and support samaroon and harti unionists. Very simple and yet very effective

There is also Isaaq unionists.

[SuldaanOfSanaag]

I stopped addressing the issue of S/L recognition years ago..........and see no worthwhile reason to alter that position.

Sxb the status quo is affecting your people the most. Somaliland has its house in order without recognition that's why u don't even hear the government talking about. Because as the DP deal showed and military one is recognition is not needed as much.


But the current situation is affecting your land the most, no development, no security, no tax money going into the land, no NGO , I can understand you properly worked this out, when I hear the word ceel oo ma goodna cidna oo magna is your land that comes to mind. I hope the government of all side don't use your land as bargain tool.

[xiimaaya]

I believe The SFG should let go of Somaliland in exchange of relinquishing any claim of SSC and that upon leaving we should all Come together to form a Union.
Somalia,Somaliland,Djibouti,DDSI and NFD . This union would be like the Arab League etc. so nothing binding

Look at this weakling . Why do.mj kiss idoor bum


Waxan was ceeb and do.not speak on sool and sanaag it doesn't concern you.

[DalJecel60]

I believe The SFG should let go of Somaliland in exchange of relinquishing any claim of SSC and that upon leaving we should all Come together to form a Union.
Somalia,Somaliland,Djibouti,DDSI and NFD . This union would be like the Arab League etc. so nothing binding

Look at this weakling . Why do.mj kiss idoor bum


Waxan was ceeb and do.not speak on sool and sanaag it doesn't concern you.

Hadaan danta soomaliyeed ka hadlay is it bumkissing?
SSC waa Gobolo Somaliyeed anigana Somali baan ahay. Goboladas waay ii qusayayaan, intaad ani ii fara baxsanaysid dantaad ka hadal

[xiimaaya]

I believe The SFG should let go of Somaliland in exchange of relinquishing any claim of SSC and that upon leaving we should all Come together to form a Union.
Somalia,Somaliland,Djibouti,DDSI and NFD . This union would be like the Arab League etc. so nothing binding

Look at this weakling . Why do.mj kiss idoor bum


Waxan was ceeb and do.not speak on sool and sanaag it doesn't concern you.

Hadaan danta soomaliyeed ka hadlay is it bumkissing?
SSC waa Gobolo Somaliyeed anigana Somali baan ahay. Goboladas waay ii qusayayaan, intaad ani ii fara baxsanaysid dantaad ka hadal

Danta somaliyeed ma inn la Sii kala diiro Miya? What logic is that?

[Sharmarke91]

Nah the first outcome is HIGHLY unlikely, thats just wishful thinking.

Somalia is exponentially rising and emerging from two decades of civil war. There are certainly going to be set backs along the way, the failure to hold a general election in 2016 and the failure to completely eradicate Al Shabab are examples. However, that was mainly down to the incompetence of the previous administration. The incumbent Farmaajo administration will make gains in those fronts by 2020. As for AMISOM, their exit strategy has been setup and they will leave the country by 2020. A strong, trained, equipped and unified Somali military composed of the militia currently under the control of the federal states and the federal army will be installed to replace the AMISOM forces. Just last month the president and the presidents of federal member states agreed to start the ball rolling and achieve this by June this year.

Your wrong in saying that Al Shabab has support among certain clans, because it doesn't. Its supporters and members are From all Somali clans, the Isaaq being exceptionally well represented in Al Shabab.

The international community does not want to recognise Somaliland, that's a fact, you can keep avoiding it if it suits you. Your closest allies Ethiopia and the UAE and even the country that orphaned you absolutely and categorically maintain steadfastly that they WILL NOT and WILL NEVER recognise Somaliland. This is stated clearly in Britains foreign policy on Somalia. In regards to 2006-2008 the AU sent a fact finding delegation to Somaliland to see what Somaliland was squealing about and although they recognised the progress Somaliland made in terms of development and stability they found no strong and compelling reason why Somaliland would need recognition. Which is why this matter was closed and not taken any further. The United States also once considered recognising Somaliland but after weighing the pros and cons they discovered that it was a lost cause.

The IC has the same take on the autonomous states of Somalia, especially Puntland and Somaliland. The difference is Somaliland wants to be independent for a primitive and unconvincing reason, in their eyes. The legal case of Somaliland is fairly relevant but the issue that lets you down is not all the clans of the former protectorate support independence. You might claim that the Isaaq are majority, but thats not sufficient since the would be minority clans amount to nearly 40% of the population and inhabit around 45% of the territory, which cannot be ignored especially in a tribalist African society such as ours.

I doubt a future Somalia government which is strong and respectable would be pushed or pressured to allow a referendum to be conducted in Somaliland especially when the IC is in support of Somalia. Also, No country can infringe on anothers sovereignty! that's rule number one in international law. See what you miscalculate is a recognised and strong Somali government could lawfully destroy Somaliland just with economic sanction and diplomatic isolation - no country could step in and intervene.

Sool, Sanaag and Together would undoubtedly vote against independence!

[Khalid Ali]

i dont know whay gains sharnarke s talking about. he said amisom will leave somalia in 3 years. do you really believe this or do you want it to happen wishful thinking. the only gains somalia has made since 2011 is one thing alshabaab doesnt hold Mogadishu physically. but its still has major cells there. somalia is broken it has no leverage over somaliland. its to weak to even have sovreignty ovee severlal mamuul goboleeds. i give u there are some development projects done by turks and others but nothing was done by you and the other walanweyns. no election in 2016. amisom is still there kenya just 2 months ago with out notifying the darod presidenr it set foot in lower juba.

somaliland case is strong army base dp world