Xalane actors on the latest developments

[AbkoowDhiblaawe]

Analysis: Forum for National Parties (FNP)

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--MEMO by KB

Yesterday, five major political parties have formed a new alliance, the Forum for National Parties (FNP). They elected Former President Sheikh Sharif as their chairman.

The FNP is compromised of Himilo Qaran (Sheikh Sharif) UPD (led by former President Hassan Sheikh), Ilays Party (led by Abdulkadir Ossoble, a prominent MP who ran for president in 2012 and 2016 and who happens to be the brother in-law of Security Minister Mohamed Islow). It also includes smaller parties led by former South West President Sharif Hassan, former defense Minister and an MP Prof. Mohamed Gandhi (who is thought to be a proxy for President Ahmed Madoobe of Jubbaland).

That these bigwigs decided to join forces at this critical juncture in Somalia is both symbolic for its political machination and substantive for its weight.

The combined political muscle of the FNP is by far the most formidable force against President Farmaajo for the 2020/2021 Parliamentary and Presidential election. Already, President Farmaajo, who is reportedly nervous about this show of force, is attempting to dismantle the alliance through both carrots and sticks.

Over the past few weeks, his Chief Intelligence, Fahad Yasin started secret (not anymore) talks with high ranking officials from UPD. Reliable sources reveal that he offered a litany of posts, including key cabinet ministers, mayor of Mogadishu and the presidency of Galmudug to UPD in exchange of a unified front in the 2020/2021 elections.

Underwhelmed by the offer, the UPD made a counter proposal, which, in addition to the above posts, includes the premiership. Fahad was reportedly reluctant but did not dismiss the offer altogether, indicating possible 'grand deal' to oust PM Hassan Khaire.

Additionally, President Farmaajo called President Sheikh Sharif a few hours after the announcement of the FNP and invited him for a bilateral meeting. President Sharif said he could only meet as the leader of FNP together with his colleagues, to which President Farmaajo was very reluctant according to reliable sources.

All of these moves point to a deeply frightened Villa Somalia in the face of burgeoning opposition and a rapidly rising public option against President Farmaajo and his administration for persistent road closures in Mogadishu, weakening of the federal system, marginalizing oversight institutions (i.e. parliament, accountant general, attorney general, etc).

Future scenarios look very bleak for President Farmaajo, especially as PM Khaire failed to rally the Hawiye behind him, given their enormous influence in politics and economy of Mogadishu. With two major Darod clans in the fence (Majerten and Ogaden), the overall clan dynamic of the country is hostile to President Farmaajo. He and his PM hail from two relatively less influential clans from Darod and Hawiye (Marehan and Murasade respectively)

Unless President Farmaajo is able to drive a wedge among the FNP members by bringing one of the two main parties (UPD and Himilo Qaran) onboard, it will be very difficult to imagine how he could survive the gathering political storms of Mogadishu in the coming months.

On the other hand, the international community, notably the USA, is starting to get frustrated with Farmaajo's belligerent and confrontational attitude toward political opposition while not being enthusiastic about the fight against Al Shabab. The recent Security Council meeting is indicative of that frustration which is now public. Farmaajo's most reliable external actor is Qatar which infuses millions in direct cash to his government.

Washington is also pressuring Farmaajo to acquiesce to Kenya in the martitime dispute, a difficult decision for Farmaajo who needs the Americans now more than ever before. The maritime issue is the penultimate political dynamite in Somalia.


What was notable from the formation of the FNP is the absence of Wadajir Party led by Abdirahman Abdishakur Warsame. Although relatively small, the party is one of the loudest and most prominent in the political scene. We understand from reliable sources that AAW, who is astute but cantankerous, refused to join after other principals rejected his proposal to lead the FNP or make it a loose coalition that functions as a coordination mechanism.

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[sahal80]

Kheyre told them he will ease the situation and a coming reshuffle and inclusive Galmudug all this paves the way for his inqilaab. he made the confrantation si uu hawiye u kicyo kadibna asaga ladho la deal garee them. the guy is f-king cleaver!

[AbkoowDhiblaawe]

Kheyre told them he will ease the situation and a coming reshuffle and inclusive Galmudug all this paves the way for his inqilaab. he made the confrantation si uu hawiye u kicyo kadibna asaga ladho la deal garee them. the guy is f-king cleaver!

Ruthless son of a bitch.

[gobdoon]

Kheyr wa kheyraat wadanka nabad ha laga dhigo iyo hub ururin qoriga iyo saanada ha lag bedelo yaambo beeraha lagu falo iyo dube dhismaha lagu dhiso
Somaliya cirif ka cirif in dadku nabad ku seexdaan kuna so kacan horumar iyo mustaqbal fiican kuli