Voltage wrote: Tue Feb 18, 2020 12:48 am
Politics and historical debates and that aside, Somalia should be prepared to honor the right to self-determination of Somalilanders.
I am sure Somalia will not let it go easily, but we must be prepared to accommodate that desire. It's simple as that.
However, as one of the few people from Somalia who is willing to defer completely to Somalilanders about the final outcome of our relationship, I also feel (and also know in the difficult negotiations that would finalize such a break up), the subject of SSC (not the whole regions but let's be real Dhulbahante and Warsangeli lands) will be bitterly contested and I do not foresee an eventuality where Somalia will compromise on Somaliland's right to self-determination while allowing pro-Somalia communities within it be muzzled.
It's 2020 where even Europe is apologizing for NEO-COLONIALISM let alone colonialism.
It would be a non-starter in my estimation for Somaliland to expect to break away with the old colonial border REVICTIMIZE communities who originally fought colonialism by holding them to that legacy.
In this juncture where negotiations for final settlement are not even being acknowledged and the issue is still unaddressed between Somalia and Somaliland; this is THE POINT BEFORE STEP 1.
Both camps are exceptionally hardcore and extreme in their positions but in a final negotiation, I definitely foresee the POSSIBILITY OF THREE (3) internationally observed referendumS carried out by a mutually agreed neutral partner before legal independence;
1.Referendum for Somaliland as a whole (if independence fails, it ends here) asking DO YOU WANT INDEPENDENCE
2. If Somaliland votes for referendum as a whole but SSC/Awdal communities return close vote or majority no, I forsee a 2nd targeted referendum for those groups asking DO YOU WANT UNITY
3. If agreement is reached at this point about independence (either somaliland goes as one or compromise is reached) then it is possible that Somalia will need a referendum to accept their government's decision----I say possible as I am entirely unsure about this...depends on how beholden gov is to people by then)
Obviously all Somalia nationalists are extreme no now and all Somaliland nationalists are extreme yes, but when REAL final negotiations ever begin---not these fake talks going on for 5 years on and off about maalayacni----I predict hard compromises will have to be reached