Latest Devlopments of Hirshabelle State of Somalia
Following the appointment of the new Minister of Internal Affairs and Reconciliation, Gen Mukhtar Hussein Afrah comes at a crucial time where an attempt by the government (Farmaajo & Fahad) to rapidly change the power sharing agreement that was used to form Hirshabelle State which was indeed brokered by the United Nations (UNSOM) and IGAD. This rapid change in power sharing was meant to start something called the "Hawiye Spring" to make the 2 closely related clans (Wiil iyo Abtigiis) Abgaal and Hawadle to go head to head so the latter goes and becomes speaker of parliament of Somalia out of spite. The foundation of the agreement was a negotiated settlement that was brokered in 2016 by the 2 clan families the Hawadle from Hiiraan, and the Abgaal from Middle Shabelle. Abgaal on one side was given the Vice Presidency, the most MPs and also the capital. The Hawadle on the other hand sacrificed the most MPs, capital and vice presidency (Capital, Bulo Burte est.2016) in exchange for Presidency. So think of it from another point of view is it possible for either party to get Capital, Presidency and Most MPs? the answer is clearly NO!. This move/attempt by the government to give all the power to Middle Shabelle (Abgaal) isn't a favour but a curse and its a plan to shut and silence the Opposition and advocates of a Banadir State.
The "Hawiye" Spring
What is the Hawiye Spring? It is a planned/upcoming clan warfare whilst taking advantage of 4.5 to make Hawiye clans go head to head. How will this happen? As you know most of the opposition hails from the Hawiye clan, such as Kheyre, Sh Sharif and HSM. Farmaajo clearly knows this upcoming indirect elections he was advocating 301 and he got 101 instead. This decreases his chances significantly in winning the Federal Elections. So the real question was how could he return? the only way was by continuing the plan he was heavily against in 2016 which was Sharif Saakins attempt to put Xiddig as speaker of Parliament thus if was successful Farmaajo wouldn't have become president. This is a chance for Farmaajo to put pissed off Hawadle or a Hawiye by interfering in HS elections heavily so the latter becomes speaker of Parliament to elimanate literally 70% of his opposition in one go. Raxanweyn with like 60+Mps if given the chance to get out of speaker of parliament and become Farmaajos PM will all vote for Farmaajo, Dir clan votes count that sold already, and Darood will all vote for Farmaajo if given a chance to politically eliminate Hawiye. The goal to win for Hawiye and prevent this from happening is to stick with the power sharing agreement immediately or postpone HS elections after the federal one and come up with an agreement that the both parties are happy with which obviously takes time.
So What is Next?2
The new Minister of Internal Affairs Gen Mukhtar Huseen Afrah has already started to put the election schedule of Hirshabelle on hold until he has met with both the Mudolood clan and also the Hawadle. He has met with the Mudolood clan yesterday and has an upcoming trip to Beledweyne sometime this week.
Sources:
Abdulkadir Osoble has seemed to figure out Farmaajos plan and is continuing to stick with the power sharing agreement by supporting a member in his party Xisbiga Ileys who happens to be from the Gaaljecel tribe who is currently a candidate for the speaker of Parliament of Hirshabelle.
Source:
There is also a Vice President Candidate who hails from the Middle Shabelle Region which is also sticking with the Power Sharing Agreement
Here is his objectives for the Hirshabelle State as a Vice Presidential Candidate: [tweet]
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Sheikh Sharif is also scheduled to land in Jowhar today to ensure Power Sharing agreement is looked after.
Source: [tweet]
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Hawiye Elites won't allow this to happen, especially with them preparing heavily for Presidential elections as candidates.
