Difference Between Al Shaydaan In Somalia And Taliban

[XimanJaale]

Al Shabaab are similar to Al Qaeda they don't have a local agenda but a international one. Also they get help from groups that have a sinister agenda against Somalia.

The only thing can change Al Shabaab if they split up and root out the international ranks and change their whole manifesto. But I doubt that is gonna happen until they are significantly subjugated by the Somali army which is likely to happen sometime soon if the current leadership is in power. They will change onto a political group possible in the future. Especially if the arms embargo is lifted and AMISOM start leaving, which could potentially happen in 2022. Hopefully nabad iyo nolol are in power by then.

But Al Shabaab are definitely weaker than Taliban. They barely control any important towns. Besides Somalis are very anti Al Shabaab now they rarely got any local support.

[XimanJaale]

Looks like the shock & awe and honeymoon is over; the West has begun demonizing the Taliban. The West is also repeating the mistake of arming & assisting a new armed opposition. Fortunately, a number of countries (Turkey, China, etc) are bold enough to start business with the Taliban who are sitting on $1 trillion natural resources.

Even tho I am not a fan of Taliban. They could be a opportunity for lasting peace. Sooner or later the people will revolt if they go strict. A natural revolt is better than a foreign backed revolt. Hopefully the West will not interfere but I doubt it.

[paperino]

Even tho I am not a fan of Taliban. They could be a opportunity for lasting peace. Sooner or later the people will revolt if they go strict. A natural revolt is better than a foreign backed revolt. Hopefully the West will not interfere but I doubt it.

True.

[grandpakhalif]

Even tho I am not a fan of Taliban. They could be a opportunity for lasting peace. Sooner or later the people will revolt if they go strict. A natural revolt is better than a foreign backed revolt. Hopefully the West will not interfere but I doubt it.

True.

Do you think the same thing will happen in Somalia if the West were to completely withdraw AMISOM?

[paperino]

Do you think the same thing will happen in Somalia if the West were to completely withdraw AMISOM?

Tribal/regional militias do not stand a chance without the West. Those who were trained by Turkey, and to a lesser extent those by Eritrea, might perform better & possibly fight to stalemate, but unclear if they can win on their own in the long range.

[XimanJaale]

^^

If they get paid on time and fed well. And the politic environment is stable then... They have the potential to secure the whole country. Currently if Farmaajo wins the election, I am not worried about their salary. I am just worried about foreign countries meddling in our political environment by creating a hostile opposition or federal region against the future Farmaajo regime. Divide and conquer and this has been happening for the last 30 years. The skinny nation are just to dumb and emotional to realise this. To them clan X or clan Y is the enemy and this is not the general public.. But corrupt individuals that use this tactics to gain power. These politicians rarely care about their clan... They just want to use it as a stepping stone.

[Khalid Ali]

If amisom leaves.
Shabaab will control evething South of galkacyo.

[paperino]

^^

If they get paid on time and fed well. And the politic environment is stable then... They have the potential to secure the whole country. Currently if Farmaajo wins the election, I am not worried about their salary. I am just worried about foreign countries meddling in our political environment by creating a hostile opposition or federal region against the future Farmaajo regime. Divide and conquer and this has been happening for the last 30 years. The skinny nation are just to dumb and emotional to realise this. To them clan X or clan Y is the enemy and this is not the general public.. But corrupt individuals that use this tactics to gain power. These politicians rarely care about their clan... They just want to use it as a stepping stone.

As analysts have pointed out, the reason why the Afghan gov & its forces have failed is due to; corruption & injustice. Those two imperfections are pervasive in Somalia, which could take generations to just reduce it. Paying & feeding well the armed forces is a small fraction of the equation. There are countries with minimal armed forces that are among the most advanced, and it's due to good governance, less corruption & injustice.

[XimanJaale]

^^

If they get paid on time and fed well. And the politic environment is stable then... They have the potential to secure the whole country. Currently if Farmaajo wins the election, I am not worried about their salary. I am just worried about foreign countries meddling in our political environment by creating a hostile opposition or federal region against the future Farmaajo regime. Divide and conquer and this has been happening for the last 30 years. The skinny nation are just to dumb and emotional to realise this. To them clan X or clan Y is the enemy and this is not the general public.. But corrupt individuals that use this tactics to gain power. These politicians rarely care about their clan... They just want to use it as a stepping stone.

As analysts have pointed out, the reason why the Afghan gov & its forces have failed is due to; corruption & injustice. Those two imperfections are pervasive in Somalia, which could take generations to just reduce it. Paying & feeding well the armed forces is a small fraction of the equation. There are countries with minimal armed forces that are among the most advanced, and it's due to good governance, less corruption & injustice.

For sure. Corruption is one big issue that could affect the efficiency of SNA. From all levels of the federal government including the justice system.

[paperino]

The US committed serious violations and done terrible things in Afghanistan. I was watching a report on AJ about former prisoners at Bagram. Among those tortured is Sultan, who lost his teeth during what came to be known as enhanced interrogation.



https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/2 ... -prisoners

[TarTar]

If amisom leaves.
Shabaab will control evething South of galkacyo.

dis agree for 2 reasons. 1. they won't take everything south of galkayo 2. they already control somae are in Puntland

1st u got walalaha galgadud n ahlu sunnah wal jami' n all those moderate tribal groups in galmudug gonna stop al shabab. gedo won't fall to al shabab unless marehan lose both presidency n prime minister. hirshabele ends up mostly surviving too.

Sahal's people gonna stomp on 'em

also u can't forget shabab in puntlan. tha Southwest province is their strong hold. i agree they keep controlling that province.

n like I said minority tribes in Bari r supporting ISIl or al shabab terrorists to defend them from puntland government