Somali National Development Plan, like all Somalia gov stuff, is unreliable; exmpl. False attribution re:Camel #'s

[Gubbet]

Do not use Somalia Gov reports----for anything; period.

The disfunctionality is very evident in the lack of quality control which is supposed to catch the production of seriously erroneous information like the following.

The most recent one contains this gem about Livestock population



Now because of prior experience with Somali livestock numbers, I have a rough mental picture of of the lay of the land and immediately red flags go up as numbers are extremely out of order



Those are some of the immediately noticeable numbers that stand out to me where there is a wide disparity between the average of all other sources and this gem. Some regions are showing numbers that have tripled and some showing numbers that are 1/10 of their usual numbers.

Now understand I "know" what is going on, i.e. that beautiful Somali clan grievance motivation to "fudge" the numbers (this bias is heavily favoring "Hirshabelle" in these numbers and taking away from all "Darod")..

... so I go and look at the methodology/source---


Lo and behold there is none because the report references "FSNAU/FAO"



I think "that's odd" because FSNAU/FAO numbers are something I am very familiar with and have even used their exact numbers for this graphic



Do you see "Source: FSNAU estimates for the Drought Impact Needs Assessment (FGS 2017a)?"

So wondering if the Somalia gov report are new numbers, I check to see which FSNAU work but, conveniently, there is no direct full citation, no title, no real "reference." See my source contains direct title and year and quarter.

There are no existing FSNAU figures as referenced by the Somalia gov report. It doesn't exist.

Those numbers are fudged numbers and as we can all see some Somali evincing the usual Somali clan "IT' totally shat on the figures intentionally skewering it according to bias which clearly is pointing at " Hirshabelle" and the Benadir up to Lower Shabelle. They not only are biased heavily in favor of those regions but look very biased against what they considered" Darod regions.


As you can see here from the UNDP and World Bank referencing FSNAU for livestock population numbers in recent reports, the referenced numbers are exactly like the numbers referenced by my infograph and completely different and even in disagreement with the falsely created "hedged" numbers from the Somalia gov report.



It would be 1 thing for the Somali Gov report to have alleged to be the one who came up with those numbers and make the issue about "methodology" ---

---but they literally cited an entity who never produced those numbers and who is referenced by everyone else as producing different numbers.

The Somalia Report literally and figuratively "falsely attributed" FSNAU.

The only source for those hedged numbers is someone's infamous Somali clan grievance.

[Gubbet]

Sources referencing the same numbers from FSNAU as my infograph;

World Bank;

https://documents.worldbank.org/curated ... igital.pdf

United Nations;

https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskg ... Lowres.pdf

[mahoka]

Do not use Somalia Gov reports----for anything; period.

The disfunctionality is very evident in the lack of quality control which is supposed to catch the production of seriously erroneous information like the following.

The most recent one contains this gem about Livestock population



Now because of prior experience with Somali livestock numbers, I have a rough mental picture of of the lay of the land and immediately red flags go up as numbers are extremely out of order



Those are some of the immediately noticeable numbers that stand out to me where there is a wide disparity between the average of all other sources and this gem. Some regions are showing numbers that have tripled and some showing numbers that are 1/10 of their usual numbers.

Now understand I "know" what is going on, i.e. that beautiful Somali clan grievance motivation to "fudge" the numbers (this bias is heavily favoring "Hirshabelle" in these numbers and taking away from all "Darod")..

... so I go and look at the methodology/source---


Lo and behold there is none because the report references "FSNAU/FAO"



I think "that's odd" because FSNAU/FAO numbers are something I am very familiar with and have even used their exact numbers for this graphic



Do you see "Source: FSNAU estimates for the Drought Impact Needs Assessment (FGS 2017a)?"

So wondering if the Somalia gov report are new numbers, I check to see which FSNAU work but, conveniently, there is no direct full citation, no title, no real "reference." See my source contains direct title and year and quarter.

There are no existing FSNAU figures as referenced by the Somalia gov report. It doesn't exist.

Those numbers are fudged numbers and as we can all see some Somali evincing the usual Somali clan "IT' totally shat on the figures intentionally skewering it according to bias which clearly is pointing at " Hirshabelle" and the Benadir up to Lower Shabelle. They not only are biased heavily in favor of those regions but look very biased against what they considered" Darod regions.


As you can see here from the UNDP and World Bank referencing FSNAU for livestock population numbers in recent reports, the referenced numbers are exactly like the numbers referenced by my infograph and completely different and even in disagreement with the falsely created "hedged" numbers from the Somalia gov report.



It would be 1 thing for the Somali Gov report to have alleged to be the one who came up with those numbers and make the issue about "methodology" ---

---but they literally cited an entity who never produced those numbers and who is referenced by everyone else as producing different numbers.

The Somalia Report literally and figuratively "falsely attributed" FSNAU.

The only source for those hedged numbers is someone's infamous Somali clan grievance.

Doesn’t gedo suffer from constant draughts and food/water shortages. How can it be possible it has the most livestock out of any region?

[Gubbet]

Doesn’t gedo suffer from constant draughts and food/water shortages. How can it be possible it has the most livestock out of any region?

If you have any questions, feel free to ask me.

P.S. "Dollow" contains the biggest IDP relief center in Somalia. Keep that in mind.




Source >>> http://fsnau.org/downloads/Number-of-Se ... t-Deyr.pdf

[Gubbet]

Tip: That's the professional classification system developed by FAO and accepted as food and nutrition scientific standard classification system for Somalia's humanitarian situation. It is what is used to official declare "drought" and even "famine" in Somalia.

From 2015 to beginning of this year, that infographic map represents how many times a district in Somalia was classified as "in crisis" or worse.

Gedo Region was 1/4 regions in Somalia (others being Lower Jubba, Middle Shabelle, and Lower Shabelle) with the least declarations of crisis.

In fact if you remove Dollow given the very obvious reason why, 90% of your districts were more in crisis than Gedo as a whole.

Perception is not everything.

[Gubbet]

Also, Gedo, as I have pointed out before, is the beneficiary of a national Somalia Marehan "bias." There is very clear disproportionate amount of national Somalia attention that is paid to "Issues" involving Marehan. This is a cultural currency or capital that clan is , fairly or unfairly, disproportionately privileged with relative to other tribes. Issues involving them tend to receive more attention and/or animate the public. One of the drawbacks is inevitably perception bias like you are under regarding Gedo and drought but conversely which is a positive privilege in that Gedo, when in crisis, receives disproportionately more attention which may even lead to more Somalis contributing to Gedo relief campaigns than would normally be the case. Attention is indispensable to a moment of humanitarian crisis.