Tracking Conflict: Something that happened today tells me MX-HG headed for serious, 1991 type of clash.

[theyuusuf143]

No Somali can fk with habargidir , they are battle hardened rising empire . Even we isaaqs wouldn't be so confident if they are against us in the battlefield. Caruur caruur aan lala ciyaarin baa jira.

[Gubbet]

Please leave this topic alone----to the both of you HJ men from Burco.

This topic is about "tracking" as in "following" a pattern of developments with the possibility this might lead to conflict which if it were to then happen, there could be potentially something to learn about the process of conflict metamorphosis that could contribute to arresting it beforehand.

Your displays of small petty resentments is unbecoming.

I have described only "Xeer" Marehan including the existence of Afar Waaxood and the sets of Alliances. If you cannot see yourself in not becoming surprised by this level of organization under Xeer [concerning conflict], than that is attributable to the fact Marehan has the most organized Xeer concerning "col" or "belligerence/struggle/warfare/conflict."

As I have pointed out before;

Marehan has a very evolved xeer/formality/procedure on matters relating to "col" (belligerence). I have pointed out before this is clearly the single most institutionalized cultural feature resulting from the "600 years" you like pointing out yourself. Our Xeer for peacetime, nabad, regular life is the inverse to Marehan Xeer concerling "col." That is to say as relaxed and fluid our Xeer dealing with peace, the Xeer dealing with col is rigid, highly organized, and tightly enforced. Probably the most elaborate of any existing Somali clan. It is old with extensive informing precedence.

https://www.somalinet.com/forums/viewto ... 1#p5035907

All this topic does is actually reference actual features within Xeer Marehan for "col" as part of explaining or contextualizing some of these moves.

[Gubbet]

Wagardhac and Reer Siyaad Xussein (Waaxda Ilma Adeero) have declared to be in "union" seeking "security" in "this" land (central Somalia) either through nabad (peace) or 'col' (struggle)

Noteworthy;

1. Reer Siyaad Xussein is part of the ward/waax Waaxda Ilma Adeero including Celi
2. Reer Siyaad Xussein is the eastern most Marehan clan towards the highway settling Bangeelle town towards Dhusamareb
3. Reer Siyaad Xussein is the one MX clan that HG, especially Saleebaan & Cayr Bari are absolutely cautious about engaging conflict given the importance of their impact to any grazing immediately west of the highway for both Cadaado and Dhusamareb




Something is definitely up

[Gubbet]

Habar Gidir/Sacad and especially the Reer Jalaf sub-clan of Gen Caydiid led by former Somali army commander Gen Gorod have sent an 'appeal/petition' to Wagardhac of Marehan to join them for, as they say, a serious, unprecedented, conclusive 'peace settlement '

Noteworthy points

-Sacad has a serious, unforgivable "aano" (infraction) that is 'outstanding'
-That 'aano' is the attack on Wagardhac girls by men from Gelinsoor and Bandiiradley
-Pending capture of those perpetrators and reaching mutual agreement on what to do about them, it is unlikely, and even improbable that Wagardhac will accept this offer before 'retribution'



I don't think it would be an overstatement to say this 'appeal/petition' developed in an empty vacuum. It is fair to surmise it is directly triggered by the developments I am tracking here.

[Gubbet]

Wagardhac has attacked every Saleebaan birka & burnt it up to Dibira & highway; scores of casualties, incl. ina Mulde.

https://www.somalinet.com/forums/viewto ... 0&t=410959