Rambie wrote:TheCadaanGuy wrote:Bence wrote:Puntland join SL? You must be mad.
Puntland not joining SL? You must be mad. The benefits of doing so is too big to ignore.
I'll ask again, what are the real reasons against PL uniting with SL?
Didn't you figure it out from the graph already?
Dhulus and Warsans make like 35-40% of all Darood in Somali republic.
If SL get recognized, than 4.5 won't work for 'em anymore.
PL was established for 2 main reasons:
1- Push the federalism system on Somalia.
2- Counter SL aims for recognition (i.e the only save/stable place in Somalia)
They succeeded in both goals.
Now, if SL got recognized, they will be the underdog.
And of course, they won't accept that and will probably either join SL (because we are so fair
)
Or start their own Darood country.
Nothing more, nothing less.
I did figure it out from the graph but I simply ignored it because it's not relevant.
4.5 clan system doesn't work for Somalia? So what?
Let me lay the facts out:
~ 10 million in Somalia, PL and SL combined.
Assuming the population is divided to the 3 regions equally, that's about 3.33 recurring million for each region.
Somalis in Somalia live bad life due to war. Somalis in PL and SL live alright life due to lack of power (You can't really do anything on your own as because SFG is the boss).
How is that relevant you may ask, and here I answer:
Let's say SL and PL unites to form an alliance. That's 6.66 recurring million vs 3.33 recurring million.
Now they have much stronger chance of recognition. Nobody wants to deal with the government whose the majority of Somalis reject.
What's even better is that the alliance will be able to slowly take over the lands. SNA are stretched to thin and they're not present in peaceful lands. All the alliance soldiers needs to do is walk over and plant a flag. Majority of Somalis will choose the alliance soldiers over Al-Shabaab and bantu soldiers every time.
The only reason why people keep joining Al-Shabaab is because they are stuck in the middle of war between the two sides. For most of them, Al-Shabaab is lesser evil. Not all of them agree with the ideology and I would say many of them are brainwashed.
This leaflet I found somewhere says that one of the major signs of an individual being brainwashed with extremist ideology is to talk about politics constantly.
That goes along in the line with what we've seen regarding to Al-Shabaab supporters, they constantly talk about politics, rarely about religion except "They're true Muslims and they are following the correct path to Allah". Not even many of them are able to argue successfully that they're following the correct path.
Anyway, AMISOM will be faced with two choices. Carry on pretending nothing happened or go and murder the alliance soldiers. If they pick the former, Somalia gets taken over. They pick the latter, there will be public outcry and most will side with the alliance soldiers. In order to control the land, you need the support of people.
Once Somalia is taken over, everyone is now happy again (well, except some hardcore tribalists who would rather to die than to be ruled by somebody hailing from a clan they hate). We'll look back and regret why we squabbled in such nonsensical matters.
Woah, it seems I've gone off the tangent.
Back to the discussion. True, PL was established to push the federalism but it was done for the same reasons as Somaliland except PL did not want go for independence because they wanted the idea of Somaliweyen.
Counter SL aims for recognition? Now, this is the conspiracy theory I've been waiting for. Unless you can prove it, I'll assume it is untrue.
Nothing will change for PL if SL gets recognised unless SL decides to meddle in Somali affairs.
