The Somali Election Thread - Analysis & Prediction

[AbkoowDhiblaawe]

The millionaire MP Ado Ali Geesey is running for the top seat.

Prominent Business Elite Announces his Candidacy in Mogadishu

Ahmed Hassan Suudi for Horn Observer

LONDON – 25 December, 2016: A New presidential candidate, who is believed to be making a significant change in Somalia’s political landscape if elected, announced his candidacy at a news conference on Sunday in Mogadishu.

A successful businessman, Abdullahi Ali Ahmed aka Addow Ali Gees, read out his candidacy to run for the presidential elections at a press conference held in Mogadishu on Sunday, signaling commitment to bring Somalia back to its knees.

HSM got a real opponent. Better watch out.

MashAllah Waceysle are on fire!

[Halmogg]

Nah! It will doofaars thinking they have a doofaar in the Villa when infact Xalweyste is just Django chained.
Doofaars will be sadly let down. RIP.

My donkey friend, no jerberti i know cares for the anisom presidency but i would love to see how yall xoolo hutus react. Kkkkk

Mr. Doofaar, you care, dont lie to yourself. You are a doofaar, which means, you eat your own shit. So yep, you care alright. All doofaars are in Xamar eating their own shit just to get approval from HAG.

Dont get mad MR. Doofaar, blame your doofarnimo.

kkk donkey, care for ugandhishu? i bet you will be among the first to protest/join alshabbab/burn shit down if CC or any other darood wins the selection/bribery process. I can see it right now, walle hutus are predictable.

[TheblueNwhite]

Senor Doofaar
Keep oink oinking about Mogadishu and Hawiye. Use your xaar to wipe your pig tears. No fcks given.

[bromie1]

This man has no credibility, why would anyone with any brain cells take his seriously

His integrity is 10x better than those politicians in Somalia. He says what he thinks, and has no filter in place. Sure he says questionable things, but he ain't in all four sucking ceeb.

I completely disagree, say what you may about politicians in Somalia, but its easy for this guy to sit back talk, his not in a position of responsibility and does not have to face consequences for the things he says , remember the old saying habar faditha lagdan la fudhudhaa

I agree some of the stuff his says are valid but he mixes it with some much bull that my ears hurt when I listen to him, In my opinion waxa uka shaqeeya faafinta warka beenta ah, iyo baseless criticisms iyo war xun as if he could a better job and lastly iskudirka bulshada Somalida. Just looking his wagacusub webite should help you decide what type of person he is

I can't believe you just defended Somali politicians. could you enlighten me as to when they faced consequence arising from the decisions they made collectively?.

how about when they allowed Ethiopian troops to enter and kill at will and to cover their backs point to an amendment that bans frontline countries?

The only thing worth mentioning is when they rejected the MoU with Keyna and is was not completely selfless act. Coz you know why to get a slice of the cake when you can eat the whole cake yourself.

you may say that it is unfair to lump these degenerates who mortgaged their possessions to attain a seat. for sure there are few dozen who pick up the slack of the rest, but we know you would not trust them with your own money in taxes or as government bonds.

just recently, an MP was almost elected, he managed to change his name to run for an exclusively female seat and called himself IFTIN. to add insult to injury there was a party thrown to celebrate the progress women made thus far, and this man instead of giving it a miss decides to turn up and partake in ceremony.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0uNlaIUtIp8




At least dahir culusoww has a value to give in the form of entertainment at the very least, and we collectively can hold him accountable and call out his bullshit. for Somali politicians tho.

[bromie1]

now to the elections, HSM got this wrapped up. I called it he will in the second round if not the first. A lot is on the table, and the country's future.

http://www.jowhar.com/maxaa-ka-soo-baxa ... -warbixin/

[smooth]

now to the elections, HSM got this wrapped up. I called it he will in the second round if not the first. A lot is on the table, and the country's future.

http://www.jowhar.com/maxaa-ka-soo-baxa ... -warbixin/

If these rumours are true, it's bad news for HSM and CC as I said before, Shariif Sakiin running alone would disqualify Sheikh Shariif as well as the other dark horses mainly Ossoble and Jibril with his 69 guaranteed votes that will now come into play and up for bidding by anyone.

It looks like Ethiopia's plan will once again reign supreme, UAE will be taking a big L, looks like we will see 2 HAG in the second round compete against CC which is the most likely scenario as of now.

For many months I was posting that the IC, Turkey, Qatar, Uganda, including the UN wanted Sheikh Shariif, they spent a lot of money educating the guy in political science and English putting him in 5 stars hotel, it looks like if this news is true, the sheikh is back in play and with a big chance of winning.

There are rumours being floated for weeks now that the UAE did a U turn on CC due to Ethiopian warning of civil war, if this is true, I expect CC to drop out aswell as he will have no more chance in winning, the vote will likely split between Jibril and Sheikh Shariif for CC voters, Farmaajo will also be out of the picture, Sakiin running was in his favour.

The possibility of 3 HAG as finalist breaking last election record is a real possibility now, sheikh shariif and HSM are certain finalist if Sakiin drops out, the third one is up for debate, likely ossoble or Jibril.

[bromie1]

now to the elections, HSM got this wrapped up. I called it he will in the second round if not the first. A lot is on the table, and the country's future.

http://www.jowhar.com/maxaa-ka-soo-baxa ... -warbixin/

If these rumours are true, it's bad news for HSM and CC as I said before, Shariif Sakiin running alone would disqualify Sheikh Shariif as well as the other dark horses mainly Ossoble and Jibril with his 69 guaranteed votes that will now come into play and up for bidding by anyone.

It looks like Ethiopia's plan will once again reign supreme, UAE will be taking a big L, looks like we will see 2 HAG in the second round compete against CC which is the most likely scenario as of now.

For many months I was posting that the IC, Turkey, Qatar, Uganda, including the UN wanted Sheikh Shariif, they spent a lot of money educating the guy in political science and English putting him in 5 stars hotel, it looks like if this news is true, the sheikh is back in play and with a big chance of winning.

There are rumours being floated for weeks now that the UAE did a U turn on CC due to Ethiopian warning of civil war, if this is true, I expect CC to drop out aswell as he will have no more chance in winning, the vote will likely split between Jibril and Sheikh Shariif for CC voters, Farmaajo will also be out of the picture, Sakiin running was in his favour.

The possibility of 3 HAG as finalist breaking last election record is a real possibility now, sheikh shariif and HSM are certain finalist if Sakiin drops out, the third one is up for debate, likely ossoble or Jibril.

Hmmmmmmmmm

I don't completely agree. HSM skills are honed and his political operations are firing on all cylinders. there is no visible established structure in ascending to power in Somalia. HSM and his buddies have been laying the groundwork in the federal process the last few years and whether he is in the office or not, they as a collective have the skills set to move things and would be in the driving seat whether HSM is in the office or not.

If you were to leave outside influences, HSM and his buddies are the most seasoned and skilled to win any political tournament. And the way the system is structured it acts as an equilibrium were excessive push results in counteractions that are unforeseen. So the UAE, Ethiopia, and the EU/US need to fathom this and to deal with the winner of this game by using incentives and pressure, otherwise, the winner which they didn't anticipate will have a leverage and hoodwink them to the detriment of their interest.

The training and conditioning HSM has been getting will secure his win. pure and simple

[smooth]

I don't completely agree. HSM skills are honed and his political operations are firing on all cylinders. there is no visible established structure in ascending to power in Somalia.

I agree, I have posted on here many times, the damul jadiid camp are the greatest strategists I have seen in Somalia, there is no question without IC interference's this would be a wrap up, the way he stopped it from taking place in Xalane is a master stroke.

However the risks are there, there are those states with much deeper pockets, which is the only Achilles heel, but the way he has played things so far makes you appreciate him more, it's the kind of strategist that we currently require in this dangerous times, playing all sides against each other.

[Halmogg]

Nah! It will doofaars thinking they have a doofaar in the Villa when infact Xalweyste is just Django chained.
Doofaars will be sadly let down. RIP.

My donkey friend, no jerberti i know cares for the anisom presidency but i would love to see how yall xoolo hutus react. Kkkkk

Mr. Doofaar, you care, dont lie to yourself. You are a doofaar, which means, you eat your own shit. So yep, you care alright. All doofaars are in Xamar eating their own shit just to get approval from HAG.

Dont get mad MR. Doofaar, blame your doofarnimo.

nah nigga


anyway, cafis man. i am out

[TheblueNwhite]

Cafis man.

[bromie1]

ANY updates on the wheel of fortunes that is turning in Somali politics, or whispers ??

[GAMES]

I use to support HSM, but he has disappointed me in the last few months. So screw him, I hope he loses and we get someone else. But he would probably buy off the votes if what I read on some websites is to be believed.

[smooth]

ANY updates on the wheel of fortunes that is turning in Somali politics, or whispers ??

Xidig and Jawaari are the favourites for the speaker post, if rumours are true that Sakiin was told to back off from Ethiopia, then likely Jawaari will win.

I haven't yet come across any statements from Sakiin confirming he is no longer running. If it doesn't come soon, I expect as my prediction that Xidig will take, Jawaari made the announcement he is running yesterday, although another D&M announced he is also running for the speaker post just a few minutes ago.(gesey)

Gesey is a staunch ally of Shariif Sakiin, this has to be a ploy to split the votes and threaten Jawaari, there must have been a falling out between Jawaari and Sakiin or simply a ploy to get Xidig into the speaker post! I am more inclined to believe the Sakiin will likely announce he is not running.

Bad news for HSM so far, his chances at the moment not looking good at all the extension was a strategic decision, he is hoping the changes at the UN this month including America, will somehow take the pressure of him, but it won't at all.

The biggest winner so far and the person in the ascendancy is Sheikh Shariif, I have been told he is making big headway in Galmudug and Hiirshabelle and it looks like Ahmed madoobe has actually endorsed him, he is in Jubaland currently, Ahmed Madoobe has done a complete U turn on CC

This is great news as he is the person I would like to see win most, and the international community have his backing, and I am being told now that even the UAE that was on the fence is supporting his presidency, the momentum is with him now.

I wrote early in this thread that the entire IC unanimously was Sheikh Shariif, what happened in Kismaayo with Madoobe speech is a game changer, CC changes have totally evaporated and it looks like HSM will follow him out the door soon as well!

If Sakiin announces he is no longer running, you can expect Sheikh Shariif to win easily and those 69+ come into play, currently he has more funding then HSM, and recently he came out openly attacking him and his government.

[PanSomaliNationalist]

If farmaajo wants to win he should appeal towards rahanweyn. Just simply promising to make af maay and official language he'd get rahanweyn which would be helpful because rahanweyn have a big say in the government

[bromie1]

ANY updates on the wheel of fortunes that is turning in Somali politics, or whispers ??

Xidig and Jawaari are the favourites for the speaker post, if rumours are true that Sakiin was told to back off from Ethiopia, then likely Jawaari will win.

I haven't yet come across any statements from Sakiin confirming he is no longer running. If it doesn't come soon, I expect as my prediction that Xidig will take, Jawaari made the announcement he is running yesterday, although another D&M announced he is also running for the speaker post just a few minutes ago.(gesey)

Gesey is a staunch ally of Shariif Sakiin, this has to be a ploy to split the votes and threaten Jawaari, there must have been a falling out between Jawaari and Sakiin or simply a ploy to get Xidig into the speaker post! I am more inclined to believe the Sakiin will likely announce he is not running.

Bad news for HSM so far, his chances at the moment not looking good at all the extension was a strategic decision, he is hoping the changes at the UN this month including America, will somehow take the pressure of him, but it won't at all.

The biggest winner so far and the person in the ascendancy is Sheikh Shariif, I have been told he is making big headway in Galmudug and Hiirshabelle and it looks like Ahmed madoobe has actually endorsed him, he is in Jubaland currently, Ahmed Madoobe has done a complete U turn on CC

This is great news as he is the person I would like to see win most, and the international community have his backing, and I am being told now that even the UAE that was on the fence is supporting his presidency, the momentum is with him now.

I wrote early in this thread that the entire IC unanimously was Sheikh Shariif, what happened in Kismaayo with Madoobe speech is a game changer, CC changes have totally evaporated and it looks like HSM will follow him out the door soon as well!

If Sakiin announces he is no longer running, you can expect Sheikh Shariif to win easily and those 69+ come into play, currently he has more funding then HSM, and recently he came out openly attacking him and his government.

Hmmmmmmmmmm. I like how you are going with this.

But, a small and insignificant rumor has emerged for that a someone, a dark horse is planning to run for the speaker post.

HE goes by the name of farx c/qaadir.
http://caasimadda.com/xog-faarax-cqaadi ... ooonka-bf/ wild rumors from tabloids, but that is something groundbreaking, The mother of all coups, a hedged bet against HSM not coming back. Which he won't if farax wins the speaker. I have alluded to this few times, these dam gadid folks are serious players and they would if they have a speaker help (anyone who is willing to cooperate) JIBril I would think and appoint some MJ they have to PM position and their overall grip on power only increase.

How i this turns out true and top, although its a big ask to bring back HSM.