TPLF grip on power slipping in Ethiopia

[paidmonk]

Nothing will happen, absolutely nothing.

To be honest, lets put it this way: Isaaq/Dir are uninvolved, Marexaan are too far South, Ogaden are out of the question, Abgaal are neutral, etc.

All in all, it'll be Habar Gidir vs. Harti, and with most of Habar Gidir's weapons and so-called rights in the TFG bank, we all know who's getting away with it when it all falls. If anything, I'd say this is the last day for Habar Gidir to fight, their power is with the TFG, without it, they're mostly powerless, especially the neutered Ceyr who only have a few mortars to show their power.

[Luq_Ganane]

. Marehan are going to be uninvolved in this. Theres no "MJ-MR business" or "MR-HG" business. We don't have a problem with HG or with MJ as we handled our business with them as men a long time ago. If and when the Eithos leave, Mudug will turn into a warzone, between HG and Harti, and we'll immedietely declare Jubbaland with Abdirazak Farax Tano as president

[AbdiWahab252]

LuqGanane,

Nah, u will fall victim to the typical Majeerten swan song of "Ya Darood ah"

P.S.

Don't forgot the Walalaha Galgaduud who are going to demand their share


PAIDMONK,


CabdiQeybdiid did not disarm the HG in Central Somalia. They have their weapons and are ready to strike from Xarardhere, Dhusamareb and Cadaado.

[Luq_Ganane]

This isn't a Darood-Hawiye conflict. This isn't 1991. Somalia has left the Darood-Hawiye stage, and now its every subclan for themselves. This will be a HG-Harti conflict.

[AbdiWahab252]

LuqGanane,

Yep, the good old days are behind us when things were less complicated.

Anywayz, as long as the native Sacad folk of Jubba are given their fair share its all good.

[Luq_Ganane]

Native Sacad folk of Jubboinka? your funny.

Also correction: Wacaysle typically do not fight in any battles, and are among the most respectable, most educated Somalis. There not with this puppet Government and they won't get involoved in useless battles. During the time of Muxammad Siyad they were all businessman, Goverment officials (i.e Kalmoy and others). Abgal would be well suited to have Wacysle decision make for them.

[FAH1223]

[quote="paidmonk"]Nothing will happen, absolutely nothing.

To be honest, lets put it this way: Isaaq/Dir are uninvolved, Marexaan are too far South, Ogaden are out of the question, Abgaal are neutral, etc.

All in all, it'll be Habar Gidir vs. Harti, and with most of Habar Gidir's weapons and so-called rights in the TFG bank, we all know who's getting away with it when it all falls. If anything, I'd say this is the last day for Habar Gidir to fight, their power is with the TFG, without it, they're mostly powerless, especially the neutered Ceyr who only have a few mortars to show their power.[/quote]

that Harti is MJ, obviously

[AbdiWahab252]

LuqGanane,

Saxiib, there have been Sacad in the Jubba since the 1890s. My adeer owns homes in Kismayo.

They are more native than Barre Hiiraale and all the Galgadud Marexan.

[Luq_Ganane]

. FYI: Marehan were one of the first Somalis to cross the Jubba River. My adeer yaal, used to come from Gedo and would graze their lifestock around Jubboinka as they were in near proximity. I think I even have some realitives buried in that region. Anyway thats all besides the point. We came there in '91 by force when we kicked USC out, and in '99 when we kicked out Morgan. We're not going anywhere sxb. Teeda kale, I think Sacad have a million and one things to worry about then Kismayo. MJ have a a strangle hold on you guys right now.

[AbdiWahab252]

LuqGanane,

Your logic is why Kismayo will never have stability.

U can not deny the rights of its residents otherwise u are simply laying the foundation for more war.

A few Sacad in the Jubba only need to whisper into the ears of the Galjaceel, Sheikhal, Ogaden, Garre, Ajuuraan, and Tuuni to create a common unity front.

We are good at starting movements.

[Luq_Ganane]

A/Wahab, FYI, Barre alienated even a portion of Marehan when he told them that he wouldn't strong arm the people the way Indacadde did. The only resentment that comes against the Marehan leadership, is the bitterness of the Majerten in them not controlling the city. So basically the point I'm making is that, Marehan could easilly abuse everyone down there including Sacad, but don't. Somali Bantus lived there in peace let alone Galjeecel. I have articles that talk about this, and how Somali Bantus live there in peace but I'm too lazy to bring it now.

[AbdiWahab252]

Luq,

Like I say, the devil is always in the details.

If its a fair and transparent system agreed by all parties, it will work. However, if the main positions of power are concentrated among Marexan, then it presents problems. I am sure even among the Marexan, if there is a heavy Rer Galgaduud influence, there will be problems.

Barre & any strongman are basically idiots. Their time of ruling is over.

We need new faces and blood free hands.

[Luq_Ganane]

A/Wahab your dealing with Africa and in particular Somalia. Get out of the fantasy world. If you have a group in power, who's not going to grossly violate your human rights you take it and run. Marehan will have the exclusive power in Jubboinka, and everyones going to have to accept it, as obviously nobody can do anything about it. In addition lets be real here, Sacad is under Absame, Harti, Galjeecel, Sheikhaal in the Jubba region food chain. I'm not beating my chest, but I'm being honest. Its like saying Awtarable and Lelkasse should have huge influence in Puntland politics, or that Biimal and Sheikhal and other Dir groups should dominate Shabelle politics. The strong survive, so as long as your not being oppressed, accept it.