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DON'T FORGET THE SENIOR LEADERS HAS ALL THE SAME IDEOLOGIES. BUT ABU MANSUR IS NOT THE LEADER IT'S SOMEONE ELSE.

seems the international crisis group(and affiliates),are trawling somalinet forums.how interesting.

mujahid1 wrote:DON'T FORGET THE SENIOR LEADERS HAS ALL THE SAME IDEOLOGIES. BUT ABU MANSUR IS NOT THE LEADER IT'S SOMEONE ELSE.

Who IS really in charge of al-Shabab? This seems to be a bit of a mystery, is it a secret?
My suspicion is Turki.

original dervish wrote:seems the international crisis group(and affiliates),are trawling somalinet forums.how interesting.

If you're referring to me then no, I'm just a gossip basically. Ironically my gossipy analyses are probably better and more informative than the drivel the ICG and other IGAD related American mouthpieces produce, but so is what I can scrape off my shoes.

Local traditional leaders chose to turn him in. That is a pretty good indicatior of al- Shabaab's curent standing in that community, especially if The Youth had already taken steps to limit what Ceyrow could do. I see this death as more an indicator of that reality, than I see Ceyro's death as the loss of an ireplaceable leader.

The last I heard Osama's approval rating in Pakistan has dropped to 4% since the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. This strikes me as similar.

Martin Adler
Sister Leonella
Daud Cali
the Italian graveyard
etc., etc. were all linked to Ceyro.

This does weaken Al-Shabaab because realistically speaking, I highly doubt Abu Mansoor can successfully takeover his position as leader of the group. I believe Abu Mansoor is too overrated and this fake government won't have a hard time putting out the fire in the couple of months to come. It'll eventually die out.

Btw, where are these men getting their weapons from? I've heard from many sources that they buried the weapons underground during their reign over Mogadishu.

TURKI ISN'T THE LEADER OF SHABAAB. I THINK IT'S ABU ZUBEYR. TURKI IS A MEMBER OF SHABAAB AND ARS. SO THEREFOR A PART OF THE SHABAAB HAS DISTANCED THEMSELVES OF ARS SO TURKI ISN'T A FULL LEADER OF SHABAAB.

I think even if he isn't the leader, Mukhtar Robow has been the most influential and important member for a while now, especially now that his group controls so much of Bay and Bakool. When he takes Baidoa it would be the icing on his cake.