What Is Happening to Gedo/ Hiiraan/Mogadishu Subclans?

[Voltage]

Murax are you sure?

You do know Marehan have not been under a single entity since Aabe Siyaad right?

Even as in the most fiercest wars, the Marehan would not go as a group but at least three different factions with the same ambition.

The biggest irony was when the whole clan turned against Ethiopia, to see Cumar Xaaji's SNF, Al Itihaad, and the other group led by Mohamud Sayid's assasinated predecessor all fighting Ethiopia.

Lack of organization isn't the problem. I think the ambition of fighting has ceased.

[King-of-Awdal]

Shirib

Today you are the strongest entity in Somalia because you have invented the Abu Abu Alliance. I say go on a killing spree

Rahanweyn got their land back in 1999, and I'm still being f*cked, in fact they do a good job of f*cking me over too

Dude i thought u captured your land back? Didnt the Abu Abu dude capture back your hometown?

[Voltage]

Cawar

People who have adminstrations in their regions can engage a long discusion about the definition of the Mogadishu subclans. Let us just give the forum to young people from these regions and see what they want to do with their regions?

Voltage,


Try to represent Gedo people and try to leave the shadow of other Somalis and assume the role of Somaliland, puntland, and Galmudug early organizers. Also try to push aside your professional warlords like Abdi Hirale and the religious people. Think Gedo elders, intellectuals, business community and expatriates all in one place and wanting to have regional administration that would keep their people from harm and assist them in peaceful development.

Do you think it is desirable? Do you think it is possible? if so, how if not why?

At this present time I don't think it is possibly.

The main problem is geographical location.

Even when Ethiopia was not very active in Somalia, they have always been very active in Gedo region, and they try to contol the politics of the region to an alarming degree.

This is what happens when you are the most strategically located southern region have boundary with both Kenya and Ethiopia, as well as across the border from Ethiopia's largest military base in south-West Ethiopia (Suufka).

At this present time especially, it is really hard for any neutral intellectuals to get involved because they have to be dictated by Ethiopia to survive.

Most Marehans abhor the Ethiopians and would rather see the region under the control of the Islamists rather than clan militias who can be easily manipulated by Ethiopia.

It is really a strategic decision.

You also have to understand alot of the Somalilanders and Puntland guys are doing autonomous state initiative for POLITICAL PURPOSES that is to give themselves a national platform.

The Marehan ruled for 21 years, still run the risk of being alienated by all other Somalis, and since the civil war was going on were viewed by all others as the group whom the top political positions of civil war era Somalia should not go to.

So there was a lack of ambition by Gedo politicians and intellectuals, since people do these things for political platform but couple things seem to be changing including the idea that the Gedo group should somehow be officially barred from contesting top officies.

You now have Maslax Maxamed Siyaad in a very high profile contestation of the Somali presidency and men such as Gen Cumar Xaaji Massale as guests of Ugandan president Yower Museveni for consultations on where to go "forward" with respect to the changing political landscape in the country.

So maybe we are seeing a turn around?

[Shirib]

Shirib

Today you are the strongest entity in Somalia because you have invented the Abu Abu Alliance. I say go on a killing spree

Rahanweyn got their land back in 1999, and I'm still being f*cked, in fact they do a good job of f*cking me over too

Dude i thought u captured your land back? Didnt the Abu Abu dude capture back your hometown?

No they captured everything but my hometown

[Nolol cusub]

Somaliweyn, the brilliant young Muddulood warlord is very close freind of mine. By the way he cannot represent Mogadishu subclans. I want other Mudulloods and Murusades to try to defend their people's rights for regional administration.

Hiiraan too must have people who are sharp and want what already the 3 regions have.



Mr. Shirib

try to present you views without anger so that we may understand better.

[Shirib]

Islamists will rule, cause everyone else has shown incompetence for 18 years

[Murax]

Actually the thing that seperates North from South are mainly

-North has very little clan diversity, bascially Issaq, Harti + Minorities in large swathes of open desert, while in the South You have probably over a dozen different Somali clans living in condenced areas, making powersharing a little more difficult.


-The ten Konfureed Gobols are fiercely Xabashi diid, foreign interference diid, and foreign powers, along with lowly Tigray dread the thought of going there, while they go to Puntland/Somaliland freely. Ethiopians encountered severe resistance, in Bay, Bakool, Gedo, Mogadishu, Hiiraan, etc.


So the South is going to be a little more challenging.

[Nolol cusub]

Excellent Voltage,

Through tradition majority of population are fiercely anti-Ethiopian domination, due to the proximity of the region to the border the Tigre's have strong influence on local politics. Intellectuals from the regions who find themselves entangled with local politics have to conform or risk their lives. For this reason religious groups offer the only alternative againt the Tigres.

Another interesting point you have made is how the older Gedo politicians and intellectuals have been discouraged by the prevelant anti-Gedo prejeduce in the national politics due to Bare's 21 year expereince.


Difficult situation


The major issues that prevent Gedo from regional administration is the problem of non Gedo influence, first by the Islamic groups, then by the Tigre invasion then again caught bewteen the two.

There are two readings to Gedo situation. One is to suggest that if independent Gedo group emerges and pushes reigious militia out of Gedo the Tigre influence might correspondingly be reduced, and if that happens then we will know that the Tigre have no other plans regarding the region. On the other hand if the Tigres resist the emergence of independent Gedo group in order to justify their presence, then this will betray the possibilty of long presence and infuence, alshabaab being the bait.


Another question,

Do you know if these two situations have been sounded out by the intellectuals and young generations?

[sadeboi]

Another question,

Do you know if these two situations have been sounded out by the intellectuals and young generations?

The Gedo population know that in the long run Al-shabab will not bear great fruits, nor do they want to be lead by heavily Ethiopian influenced men. It's quite difficult for any of those situations to happen while being non-confrontational--which is what they promise to be-- especially when both sides have a number of your young boys with them. I think the general outlook that the Gedo population has is that, their only way of saving the lives of Reer-Gedo boys from killing each other because of their alignment to two vastly different entities is to let the greater Somalia political scene play itself out. They believe this is the best hope for the region from internal conflict, and they are trying to keep some sort of relative peace between them. Only when the full attachment to either Ethiopia or religious groups is non-existent can the goals set in place for Gedo and essentially Jubbaland be implemented!

[Demure]

I am a firm believer that the way forward is through the creation of independent states rather than one centralized government. There is no genuine trust among the Somali clans, so why continue to force them to come under one umbrella? It’s been almost 20 yrs of civil war, it’s time that ppl start thinking of alternative solutions rather than the one centralized government. We need to come up with a solution that is suitable for the Somali ppl and their specific needs. Somalis need not follow Western/ or Eastern styles of governing, we should come up with our own form of government, one that works for us!

Having said that, I would love to see a newly defined Southern State (that is completely free of Ethiopia). The regions to join can be discussed, but should definitely include the historical Banadir region.

[Nolol cusub]

Murax

Voltage's discription of Tigre influence in Gedo is extremely relevent to the regions that don't have administration as much as the regions that have. Ethiopian imperialism may not be after a religious militia and that religious groups like alshabaab may be the best collaborator of Ethiopia's long term goals. This is why it becomes critical for southern subclans to retain independence and strive to unite and collobarate with other likeminded regional administrations against the enemy.


I suspect Hiiraan has similar issues as Gedo and would benefit if local indenpendent group emerges and tries to pullback the region from enemy's jaws.

I do not think Mogadishu Subclans have any excuse in not having a workable administration after the departure of the enemy.



Sade,


Like Voltage, Thanks again. This is actually what I had in mind when I started the discussion. Most Somalis see politics as either a game or insulting others. They don't see the emotional side of it or the legitimate causes that are fought for.


Waiting the national politics to play itself out is one strategy. Another strategy might be actually fighting against the current. It is true like Voltage said the geography of the region is not much help but sometimes going against the current and the conventional wisdom might be the only way to move forward. For example there must be systematic propaganda in favor of the center, Gedo interest and away from Ethio-warlords and alshabaab people. Then the establishment of political or youth organizations for the benefit Gedo administration, usage of media outlets belonging to the regions, forums exclusively for the people from the regions. Waiting is not going to help.


I would never wait anything from Mogadishu politicians. It is the dome of let downs.

[Addoow]

Somaliweyn, the brilliant young Muddulood warlord is very close freind of mine. By the way he cannot represent Mogadishu subclans. I want other Mudulloods and Murusades to try to defend their people's rights for regional administration.

Did somaliweyn send you A pm? where did you get the idea that he is part of this discussion.

Anyway,the creation of banadirland which includes the whole ex-banadir and mogadishu as its capital(well,it can still be the nations capital)is what we reall need.
If we come to the conclusion that fighting among ourselves over petty issues is probably the reason which hinders the development of our regions both socially and economically then,I am sure we can discretely handle our differences.
We need intellectually stimulated leaders to lead us Not Neanderthal warlords which have no aganda for their people.

[Nolol cusub]

Demure

You are from Mogadishu subclans and you agree the need for regional administrations is more important today than ever before especially since the national government has been non existance. With the departure of ethiopian enemies, what is it that is preventing Mogadishu subclans from regional administration today ?


Whom are they going to blame if the subclans do not look out for themselves?

[Nolol cusub]

"Anyway,the creation of banadirland which includes the whole ex-banadir and mogadishu as its capital(well,it can still be the nations capital)is what we reall need."

Who is going to do it for you if your people don't do it?

[Somaliman50]

NC,

Given that Mogadishu is the capital of the entire country, there is the automatic assumption that they must build a centralised government which is representative of the whole country. At the end of the day, Somalia needs a government which can represent it in international events like summit meetings for example. A regional administration for the capital is not seen as representative.