Is Tunisia about to be the next Iran?

[king of kismayo]

its possible knowing how at times irrational and unpredictable revolutions and public uprising can be.
the iran revolution itself was never intended to be a islamic revolution it gradually morphed into islamic revolution, in the beginning its was a coalition of interest groups which included islamist, Marxist and nationalist but in the end the islamist commanded the heights of the uprising.

in a other case the Tiananmen Square incident started as a student disaffection which had it origin in a dispute over African student dating a ethnic Chinese girl, but overtime the whole thing turned into a pro democracy thing.
The thing that will happen if the west trays to damage control is it will automatically empower anti western forces who will gain the public support what ever ideology they hold, and remember the Tunisian had years of experience of state grafting and institutional management like the Iranians meaning if this whole thing becomes a anti western thing, the west will be in bad situation for a long time because like the Iranians the Tunisians gained the mechanical know how of institutional state crafting from the west when they where secular western originated state.
So far sarkosy has learned from history and refused the Tunisian president asylum. Sarkosy has redirected the Tunisian prez to Saudi Arabia, but has Mr Sarkozy unintentional spread the wildfire because the Saudis are now in the spotlight and I recon their people are watching this through the mass media in their own country with a empathetic view since this is not a alien country but a arab brotherly country and those type of emphatic wildfires are the worst.

remember the colour revolutions of former soviets republics and how they spread and how others in semiliar sitution replicated it(those revolutions where not organic like the tunisians because they had great deal of foreign hands init but how others emulated was based on emphaty)

what ever comes out of this it requires Consolidation Through Institutionalisation and keep key state organs intacts like the millitry and goverments civil servents, but knowing the nature of greater arabs you can forget about them Consolidating a islamist gains with out squabling and infighting and reactionary responses to onfolding events weather geopolitics or as basic as keeping law and order

[Voltage]

If kingdoms were to fall, Saudi Arabia's monarchy will be the last to fall trust me on that. The Saudis are Salafi Jadeed who believe revolting against leadership is un-Islamic combined with the fact the Saudi royal family is close to 10,000 now (just from one man 4 generations ago) and are expanding even more. They are a state within a state. Not to mention the only weapon with which Saudi society could be used to turn against the royal family (the Clerics) are very satisfied in their relationship with the monarchy. Finally Saudis have a love of country and veneration of loyalty to the State unrivaled in almost all the countries of the world.

[shiniile9]

Arab dictators, parepare your future assylum destinations since Euro destinations are uncertain.

[king of kismayo]

If kingdoms were to fall, Saudi Arabia's monarchy will be the last to fall trust me on that. The Saudis are Salafi Jadeed who believe revolting against leadership is un-Islamic combined with the fact the Saudi royal family is close to 10,000 now (just from one man 4 generations ago) and are expanding even more. They are a state within a state. Not to mention the only weapon with which Saudi society could be used to turn against the royal family (the Clerics) are very satisfied in their relationship with the monarchy. Finally Saudis have a love of country and veneration of loyalty to the State unrivaled in almost all the countries of the world.

you right the saudis have a strong foundation, but the same can not be said about Bahrain with a 70% shia majority who are dissatisfied with the ruling sunni monarch,and those Bahrainis have the Iran connection but the real question is would America with such vital military base in Bahrain allow such lose of vital American interest?

Qatar is shaky especial knowing how Iranian influence is the greates in that country and Qatar has also great deal of shia population .the Kuwaitis are not really in stable political position with their quasi parliament vs emir elections but their population is like family who all know their interest in the larger sense
but saudi Arabia pretty save.

the Tunisian wind won`t blow eastwards I have a great feeling its impact will be felt next door in the Maghreb states with similar cultures and histories

[The_Patriot]

If kingdoms were to fall, Saudi Arabia's monarchy will be the last to fall trust me on that. The Saudis are Salafi Jadeed who believe revolting against leadership is un-Islamic combined with the fact the Saudi royal family is close to 10,000 now (just from one man 4 generations ago) and are expanding even more. They are a state within a state. Not to mention the only weapon with which Saudi society could be used to turn against the royal family (the Clerics) are very satisfied in their relationship with the monarchy. Finally Saudis have a love of country and veneration of loyalty to the State unrivaled in almost all the countries of the world.

dude the salafi jadiid you see are only spread over in Europe and North America mostly reverts of AA, Jamaican and Whites trying to act they know everything. Saudis have no veneration for the Royal family, after the 90's the level of poverty has increase and King Cabdalla ha tried his best to bring some reforms but the bottom line is corruption is eating the society, their were some floods that ha happend like a year ago and thye had no disaster management programe as alot of money to build proper drainage were swindled.

The royal family receive preferential treatment as they get paid more from annual royalty payments and when they establish businesses they monopolise the trade using their influences making it hard for the locals to engage in trade.

They also run the top positions in most large companies making the locals to resent alot, qabilism is slowly comming back to the Kingdom and the only reason the Kingdom is still around is cos of Uncle Sam. US has bases their and protect the kingdom from both bad publicity and any kind of unrest.

[union]

We all know how much freedom a religious theocracy brings out.

[union]

Ben Ali's fate was sealed when the military stood down and even protected the demonstrators. Whatever government comes about next, it will need the backing of the military. And the Tunisian military is a deeply secular institution which will not allow religious theocrats to take over. Not to mention the fact that the fundamentalists factions have been ruthlessly decimated so they honestly pose no political threat.

[Murax]

If kingdoms were to fall, Saudi Arabia's monarchy will be the last to fall trust me on that. The Saudis are Salafi Jadeed who believe revolting against leadership is un-Islamic combined with the fact the Saudi royal family is close to 10,000 now (just from one man 4 generations ago) and are expanding even more. They are a state within a state. Not to mention the only weapon with which Saudi society could be used to turn against the royal family (the Clerics) are very satisfied in their relationship with the monarchy. Finally Saudis have a love of country and veneration of loyalty to the State unrivaled in almost all the countries of the world.

Okay so if Saudis should revolt against their king, then why shouldn't Somalis have revolted against Siyaad Barre?

[The_Patriot]

If kingdoms were to fall, Saudi Arabia's monarchy will be the last to fall trust me on that. The Saudis are Salafi Jadeed who believe revolting against leadership is un-Islamic combined with the fact the Saudi royal family is close to 10,000 now (just from one man 4 generations ago) and are expanding even more. They are a state within a state. Not to mention the only weapon with which Saudi society could be used to turn against the royal family (the Clerics) are very satisfied in their relationship with the monarchy. Finally Saudis have a love of country and veneration of loyalty to the State unrivaled in almost all the countries of the world.

Okay so if Saudis should revolt against their king, then why shouldn't Somalis have revolted against Siyaad Barre?

because somalis were made to revolt against him.

[Murax]

If kingdoms were to fall, Saudi Arabia's monarchy will be the last to fall trust me on that. The Saudis are Salafi Jadeed who believe revolting against leadership is un-Islamic combined with the fact the Saudi royal family is close to 10,000 now (just from one man 4 generations ago) and are expanding even more. They are a state within a state. Not to mention the only weapon with which Saudi society could be used to turn against the royal family (the Clerics) are very satisfied in their relationship with the monarchy. Finally Saudis have a love of country and veneration of loyalty to the State unrivaled in almost all the countries of the world.

Okay so if Saudis should revolt against their king, then why shouldn't Somalis have revolted against Siyaad Barre?

because somalis were made to revolt against him.

The point is if being a dictator is the only requirement needed to have revolting against You warrented then there should be civil war blood baths in every Muslim Country today, and heck many gaalo Countries even

[The_Patriot]

Murax you can be dictator and your citizens hate you what keeps you in power is your friends abroad if they like you then they will finance you if not then they will finance your downfall.

Mobutu faced the same fate and Lumumba was killed in a simmilar fashion

Haile selasie was dumped while Nyerere was allowed to stay longer.

[The_Patriot]

As for Siyad Bare the US wanted him to fall coz he backed out of the oil deal and embarassed the Americans several times.

[Murax]

Murax you can be dictator and your citizens hate you what keeps you in power is your friends abroad if they like you then they will finance you if not then they will finance your downfall.

Mobutu faced the same fate and Lumumba was killed in a simmilar fashion

Haile selasie was dumped while Nyerere was allowed to stay longer.

Ofcourse I understand, but You think these foreign powers bring their own commandos in to do the job? No, they use the local population, whip up hysteria, get the people emotional and use them. My point is to the masses who want to break down Governmental structures no matter how corrupt they are (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, etc.) and not replace it with anything better. People think I praise the days MSB was in power out of qablaayad, but Wallahi that is not why. The bottom line is any Gov is better than no Gov. Even if Caydiid succeeded in capturing the whole Country and established control I would think it would be detrimental to national interest to fight Him. I know of so many Amharas who hate the regime in Addis Ababa yet they will not attempt to use force to get power as they understand Nationhood is at stake. Those Amharas must be Salafi Jadeed


This is just common sense 101

[The_Patriot]

Murax you can be dictator and your citizens hate you what keeps you in power is your friends abroad if they like you then they will finance you if not then they will finance your downfall.

Mobutu faced the same fate and Lumumba was killed in a simmilar fashion

Haile selasie was dumped while Nyerere was allowed to stay longer.

Ofcourse I understand, but You think these foreign powers bring their own commandos in to do the job? No, they use the local population, whip up hysteria, get the people emotional and use them. My point is to the masses who want to break down Governmental structures no matter how corrupt they are (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, etc.) and not replace it with anything better. People think I praise the days MSB was in power out of qablaayad, but Wallahi that is not why. The bottom line is any Gov is better than no Gov. Even if Caydiid succeeded in capturing the whole Country and established control I would think it would be detrimental to national interest to fight Him. I know of so many Amharas who hate the regime in Addis Ababa yet they will not attempt to use force to get power as they understand Nationhood is at stake. Those Amharas must be Salafi Jadeed


This is just common sense 101

horta let me tell you that Amharas are not patriotic they were given the country on a silver plater and since it was taken away from them. they pretend that they are peace loving they know that Uncle Sam nor the West will not entertain them. That why they have to save their ass and sing the unity song since they are the most hated ethnic group in Ethio had they not done so they would have been extinct as Meles would have armed all groups that resent them and the MOFOS would be extinct.

As for Caydid the US did not like him but if they had then He would have been a president whether you went to the bush or not.

Dictators are always supported by the west and the day they are seen as not useful then they are discarded and left alone. they dont last that long.

[FAH1223]

As for Siyad Bare the US wanted him to fall coz he backed out of the oil deal and embarassed the Americans several times.

well the Cold War also ended and Somalia also became pretty useless