Abdiwahab252 come in brother.

[AbdiWahab252]

Abdiwahab, we pretty much share 99% of the same vision. You are a great man and a real patriot. The only thing I wish to disagree with you is on the long-term hope where you said you want to decrease Federalism. I would say even though I do not think Somalis are politically mature to practice Federalism right now in the long term it is the best avenue of uniform and equal growth in Somalia. If you make Somalia's political competition only about national seats in Mogadishu, the rest of the country will get neglected once again. Have a mature federalism and local politicians will be forced to bring the same sort of competition in the local and state level. So even though I still value a strong central government, I wish to see a very mature and balanced Federal states which is about RESIDENCY and not TRIBE.

Yes, but you first of all need to address the root causes behind weak governance in Somalia:

1. lack of centralization

2. poor understanding of governance

3. conflict resolution


Federal States are about 20 years away. We won't be as reasonable as the Nigerians under which Federation has failed to bring equal redistribution.

[Somaliman50]

nin c/wahaab la tashanaayo waa qof godka galay, sxb al jamhuuriyah xaal qaado ninyahow

[AbdiWahab252]

*Sigh*

AbdiWahab

What of the recent talks that have initiated Between the two states?

- Continuation depends on the composition of the NEW government, who is most suited to champion Konfur front?
- What are the tactics to revert 22YEARS of ANTI-UNION culturing?
- IF all else fails would you support physical confrontation until the hand of the IC is Forced into a SUDAN like referendum?

There is nothing wrong with talks. It is the failure not to talk which causes problems. To answer your questions:

1. Konfur will need a strong central government that places emphasis on security and good governance. It should take baby steps starting with Benadir then spreading to the Shabelles, Jubbas, Galgaduud, Mudug and beyond.

2. The 22 years of AntiWalanweynism can be undone through people to people interaction which I believe should occur for all provinces. A lot of myths will be shattered once people start traveling across the Republic.

3. Physical confrontation is unnecessary. It is a waste of time, resources. A Sudan referendum is not a bad idea under free and fair conditions (freedom for Unionists to campaign, and decisions on unity be done on a tribe by tribe basis as the British signed treaties with Clans and referendum should be decided by district by district. The result may be a Republic of Somalia with borders extending up to middle of Sanaag and a patch with significant territory in Awdal.)

[Colonel]

Odey Abdiwahab wan ku salamay your vision is excellent indeed, perhaps that is because you've had the chance to experience the golden days of Somalia?

[AbdiWahab252]

Odey Abdiwahab wan ku salamay your vision is excellent indeed, perhaps that is because you've had the chance to experience the golden days of Somalia?

IF you are mentioning pre77 SOmalia, ha adeerow. Those were the glorious days.

[Salah Al-Din]

*Sigh*

AbdiWahab

What of the recent talks that have initiated Between the two states?

- Continuation depends on the composition of the NEW government, who is most suited to champion Konfur front?
- What are the tactics to revert 22YEARS of ANTI-UNION culturing?
- IF all else fails would you support physical confrontation until the hand of the IC is Forced into a SUDAN like referendum?

There is nothing wrong with talks. It is the failure not to talk which causes problems. To answer your questions:

1. Konfur will need a strong central government that places emphasis on security and good governance. It should take baby steps starting with Benadir then spreading to the Shabelles, Jubbas, Galgaduud, Mudug and beyond.

2. The 22 years of AntiWalanweynism can be undone through people to people interaction which I believe should occur for all provinces. A lot of myths will be shattered once people start traveling across the Republic.

3. Physical confrontation is unnecessary. It is a waste of time, resources. A Sudan referendum is not a bad idea under free and fair conditions (freedom for Unionists to campaign, and decisions on unity be done on a tribe by tribe basis as the British signed treaties with Clans and referendum should be decided by district by district. The result may be a Republic of Somalia with borders extending up to middle of Sanaag and a patch with significant territory in Awdal.)

The delusion that Somaliland will disitigrate is too funny.

[AbdiWahab252]

*Sigh*

AbdiWahab

What of the recent talks that have initiated Between the two states?

- Continuation depends on the composition of the NEW government, who is most suited to champion Konfur front?
- What are the tactics to revert 22YEARS of ANTI-UNION culturing?
- IF all else fails would you support physical confrontation until the hand of the IC is Forced into a SUDAN like referendum?

There is nothing wrong with talks. It is the failure not to talk which causes problems. To answer your questions:

1. Konfur will need a strong central government that places emphasis on security and good governance. It should take baby steps starting with Benadir then spreading to the Shabelles, Jubbas, Galgaduud, Mudug and beyond.

2. The 22 years of AntiWalanweynism can be undone through people to people interaction which I believe should occur for all provinces. A lot of myths will be shattered once people start traveling across the Republic.

3. Physical confrontation is unnecessary. It is a waste of time, resources. A Sudan referendum is not a bad idea under free and fair conditions (freedom for Unionists to campaign, and decisions on unity be done on a tribe by tribe basis as the British signed treaties with Clans and referendum should be decided by district by district. The result may be a Republic of Somalia with borders extending up to middle of Sanaag and a patch with significant territory in Awdal.)

The delusion that Somaliland will disitigrate is too funny.

If you are advocating for secession from the Somali Republic, why not allow the Unionists of the former British Somaliland secede too ?

[Salah Al-Din]

The delusion that Somaliland will disitigrate is too funny.

If you are advocating for secession from the Somali Republic, why not allow the Unionists of the former British Somaliland secede too ?

AbdiWahab252,

Somaliland united with Somalia in 1960 albeit illegally, as one unit. The union has since been dissolved in 1991and your question is thus a moot point. Nevertheless, your hostility is noted. We in Somaliland know what to do with such aggression.
I on the other hand pray Somalia prospers and is no longer synonymous with anarchy. It appears not everyone is cut from the same cloth.

One thing is for certain though; Somalia and Somaliland will either become friendly neighbouring states, or they will be at war. I know it is funny to fathom such thoughts of war when AMISOM is guarding the TFG. Nevertheless, it is necessary to underline this point that Somaliland will defend its Sovereignty. Any aggression/provocation from Somalia will be met with stiff resistance and from my estimation will only send back Somalia back into the stone ages. In all actuality though Somalia will proceed with caution, as it will not have the stomach nor the temerity to take such offensive measures.

[Khalid Ali]

Abdiwahaab

[AbdiWahab252]

Salahdiin,

There will be no aggression from Ex-Italian Somaliland. The conflict in Somaliland at the moment is between Somalilanders themselves. One side wants Unity and the other wants separation.

Theorectically speaking, it would be a drop in the bucket to support ProUnion forces in Somaliland. Not much, heck even 300,000 a month would keep Khatuumo afloat and on the move.

[Cirwaaq]

*Sigh*

AbdiWahab

What of the recent talks that have initiated Between the two states?

- Continuation depends on the composition of the NEW government, who is most suited to champion Konfur front?
- What are the tactics to revert 22YEARS of ANTI-UNION culturing?
- IF all else fails would you support physical confrontation until the hand of the IC is Forced into a SUDAN like referendum?

There is nothing wrong with talks. It is the failure not to talk which causes problems. To answer your questions:

1. Konfur will need a strong central government that places emphasis on security and good governance. It should take baby steps starting with Benadir then spreading to the Shabelles, Jubbas, Galgaduud, Mudug and beyond.

2. The 22 years of AntiWalanweynism can be undone through people to people interaction which I believe should occur for all provinces. A lot of myths will be shattered once people start traveling across the Republic.

3. Physical confrontation is unnecessary. It is a waste of time, resources. A Sudan referendum is not a bad idea under free and fair conditions (freedom for Unionists to campaign, and decisions on unity be done on a tribe by tribe basis as the British signed treaties with Clans and referendum should be decided by district by district. The result may be a Republic of Somalia with borders extending up to middle of Sanaag and a patch with significant territory in Awdal.)

Much Appreciated...

Re: 1. Strong central government is a byproduct of compromise between the various Presidents of Somalia-Italiano. Since you project Federal states 20years into the future this NEW central government will forever require Amisom troops. There is no trust between the power brokers and such investment into a strong army is a recipe for DICTATORSHIP II. At snails pace this central authority and it's baby steps will have eroded at the knees if Puntland and Future Jubaland have anything to say about it.

Re: 2. Puntland host 150K Konfurians, last estimate of Somaliland is 100K now besides the political failures and Dollar leaches of the norther states who does Konfur host for these northern people?... Who is indoctrinating who? it is more then likely that Konfur will be dominated by Northern born wanlaYariis who have been induced and breastfed on northern agendas. They will return south with northern Qaldaan accents and qaldaan cultures hating everything wanlaweyn... I smell a WanlaWeyn-Vs-WanlaYAriis war. Another Perpetual Konfur meltdown Tnx to Norther Inception without them lifting a finger. On the other hand The leaches they send to Xamar take AID and Canshuur money and build a Villa in the north.

Re:3. 2 States joined if a solution of dismantling one state was a benefit to anyone i can promise you the same laws used to dismantle one state will enable the other state to also be dismantled. A Wise man like you should recognize neither dismantlement favors YOU. If i have observed you correctly then

a. This course of action is a hollow threat.
b. This course of action is foreign to you and borrowed it without consideration.
c. This course of action best serves to disable the efforts of those you claim to represent.

Anything other then (a.) and i have over rated you mental capability. A Referendum will come and be held in accordance with international law according to which the departing partner's state gets to vote while the divorced party observes silently. Further more:

i. 70% of the population were born post 1991 and do not know a UNION.
ii. only 51% is required a Majority vote for outright independence/

I am investing in securing a positive end as opposed to a resisted INDEPENDENCE which is futile and will inevitably leave a diplomatic gulf which will be near impossible to cement post independence.

Flawed outcome you propose: Instead of Somaliland if Independence is granted to Isaaqia triangle.

- It is bigger then Djbouti, burundi, rwanda and many other sovereign states
- They would be a threat purely due to their clan homogeneity politically, economically and physically.
- Most other Somali regions have diversity which makes it easy to infiltrate and weaken due to internal division... what will we divide the Habars? while they bid Hutu against Jebarti? they would win hands down.

Down come to dirir without a Kastumo in a Macawuus ... it is ugly.

[Khalid Ali]

Salah stop trying to reason with the walanweyns there is no point walanweyns have their own opinion and those opinions are their facts.we should just continue the double dealings with them adopt few policies that are in line with their neighbors never play an open book with them.There are only a few percentage of the somalilanders who can see through them the rest dont people like me khalid former president cigaal cumar carte selebaan gaal former president rayaale edna adan ina waran cade muj ina xaashi and others people who lived in walanweynia. People who understand the maffia culture of walanweniya and their tradition. People who understand the mindset of the koonfurians. The average somalilander doesnt know what we were dealing with when we shared a country with them and who these folks really are.
President cigaal once said the old lady selling tomatos at the bakara market believes that they got. Our country as a gift.
See walanweyns u have to treat them like childeren the day they were born we were right there to hold their hand first of july 1960they cant remember a somali republic with out us. They cant remember a history with out the somalilanders.
For them the somaliland issue is very emotional if they let go its like they lost all purpose of lifee in islam muslims need imaan right they need somaliland to have something to live for. This why i have stopped discussing somaliland related topics with walanweyns in real life. Waxan la walaqa uun sh dalxiis farmaajo iyo sakiin iyo doorashada axmed godane ibrahim seylici iyo general bahuku

[AbdiWahab252]

Ciirwaaq,

1. My approach is built on dealing with the power brokers on the ground. The men who are holed up in their villages, with the Caapo qabiils and real power brokers not roaming politicians who don't have a techniko to their name. Jubbaland, Puntland, Galmudug are entities whose power are derived from the local leadership. Among the populace, there is wide spread acceptance that there must be a strong unity government in Mogadishu. A few elites in foreign countries will not change the push towards unity.

2. Sadly, there is very little integration of Konfurians in the Northern landers. Those children are reminded on a daily basis that they are not from there and are guests. In the end, they will side with their Konfurian people. It is the Oromo migrant children who are being absorbed in large numbers in the North into the Lander system of tribal patronage.

3. Dismantling Ex-Italian Somaliland will be very difficult by the Somaliland authorities. There are no proxies they can use in the South unless they wish to link up with Al Shabab. The reality is that there is immense popular support for Union among natives of Awdal and Sool/Sanaag which is based on the old conflict pitting the SNM against Former Mogadishu Supporters.

In the end, the tactical advantage is towards Konfur The reason why Somaliland got away was because of the decline of Mogadishu and not because of their superiority of military or economic proweress. For 22 years, Konfurians were busy working against each other but if they decide to work towards a ProUnity campaign in supporting allies in Ex-British Somaliland, Hargeisa will experience immense pressure to: 1. secede these territories 2. seek a Taiwanlike Status 3. Fight a losing war

[AbdiWahab252]

Salah stop trying to reason with the walanweyns there is no point walanweyns have their own opinion and those opinions are their facts.we should just continue the double dealings with them adopt few policies that are in line with their neighbors never play an open book with them.There are only a few percentage of the somalilanders who can see through them the rest dont people like me khalid former president cigaal cumar carte selebaan gaal former president rayaale edna adan ina waran cade muj ina xaashi and others people who lived in walanweynia. People who understand the maffia culture of walanweniya and their tradition. People who understand the mindset of the koonfurians. The average somalilander doesnt know what we were dealing with when we shared a country with them and who these folks really are.
President cigaal once said the old lady selling tomatos at the bakara market believes that they got. Our country as a gift.
See walanweyns u have to treat them like childeren the day they were born we were right there to hold their hand first of july 1960they cant remember a somali republic with out us. They cant remember a history with out the somalilanders.
For them the somaliland issue is very emotional if they let go its like they lost all purpose of lifee in islam muslims need imaan right they need somaliland to have something to live for. This why i have stopped discussing somaliland related topics with walanweyns in real life. Waxan la walaqa uun sh dalxiis farmaajo iyo sakiin iyo doorashada axmed godane ibrahim seylici iyo general bahuku

Khalid,

We are grown ups and lets use the proper terms here. Its only your qabiil that wants seccession from the SOmali Republic. Just don't bully the others into joining you.

By the way, it was Cigaal who RAN to Mogadishu. Mogadishu did not RUN to Hargeisa. The dark secret was if there was no Union on July 1, 1960, the Issaq would have gone to war against each other. The Union provided a compromise to the feuding Northern clans. The failure was that Cigaal and the other Issaq leaders were too busy to fill their personal interests over those of the Somalilanders in the Union. Remember, it was Cigaal who failed to stop the Coup of 1969 because he failed to assume the Presidency as he was too busy running around to get another Konfurian from baari to take Abdirashid's place.

Poor leadership

[Salah Al-Din]

Salahdiin,

There will be no aggression from Ex-Italian Somaliland. The conflict in Somaliland at the moment is between Somalilanders themselves. One side wants Unity and the other wants separation.

Theorectically speaking, it would be a drop in the bucket to support ProUnion forces in Somaliland. Not much, heck even 300,000 a month would keep Khatuumo afloat and on the move.

I believe we can have a quid pro quo. The thing with proxy wars is that we can reciprocate in kind. If Somalia wishes to play a zero sum game with Somaliland, we're more than happy to oblige. But before you can have wet dreams, lets first get rid of the Foreign Troops in Somalia eh?