Somaliland's external political enemies & friends

[Siciid85]

The entire horn of Africa is politically unstable what makes you think countries like USA will risk getting involved directly they still haven't forgotten what
happened to them in Somalia in 1992-1993. Yes i agree every country is mostly after their interests but when our interests match with that country then
it is better than countries like Egypt who we have no border yet are obsessed with a united Somalia for their own interest and for that we indeed refuse it
as our interest lies with a independent Somaliland. As for Guelleh don't buy that Somaliweyn hype the man is a opportunist he will go where he thinks his
little Djibouti has interests at the point they are stuck between a rock and a hard place, with a united peaceful Somalia Djibouti will be in the books of history
as they will be overshadowed, with a recognized Somaliland they will also be overshadowed but not as much as a united Somalia. Hence why the fat Guelleh
is softening up and accepting Somaliland passports and other demands.

You have to understand Somaliland can't afford to make every country their enemy,
so the political friendships has to start somewhere Somaliland will benefit from it one way or another. As many countries said the Somaliland - Somalia issue is up
to the AU aka African Union so it is important Somaliland makes friends within Africa other than Kenya whose members openly said they support Somaliland
independence there is also several western African countries like Senegal, Ghana etc that showed they have no problem with Somaliland recognition and even
received former Somaliland president Dahir Riyaale as a president of a country. Countries like United Kingdom are doing their part playing it indirectly, we are not in colonial times where a European country can directly dedicate in what happens in the African continent without other African countries, so this is a African issue
the best the UK can do at the moment is do it indirectly and push it and shove it down the throats of Somalia as the recent february conference where talks to
clarify the future of Somaliland and Somalia was agreed. Previously Somalia use to deny there was a problem regarding former Somali republic union but
now they have been forced to face the reality. That is a good step.

[KimJongIllest]

Yes, the horn is very unstable and of course the US will not get involved now but what makes you so sure they will get involved should it become stable in the future? There must be something big in Sland for them to have open ears. Offering space for a military base would be peanuts and wouldn't mean anything for them since they already have Camp Lemonnier a stones throw away. You better wish and hope and pray to God that you strike oil, lots and lots of oil.

As for Ghelleh, with the Issa representation in Somalia parliament, his interest lied not only with his clan but also Djibouti. You are right. He and his country have a huge interest in Somalia. The Issas have some say in Somalia which is what he wanted and which is what Somalia didnt mind giving since Issa are fellow Somalis and fellow brothers. No loss on Somalia's side. They had to fill in the 61 Dir spots anyway. This man made sure his clan was represented well. Can you tell me any clan with 8 seats or more other than the big Hawiye subclans and MR/MJ? Somalia has done much for him (even though it wasn't intentional) and he will remember it. Dont get fooled with them accepting passports. That is small and miniscule. It is not a victory. It was a favor they did. It doesnt change what they believe in. Many Somalilanders go to Djibouti, they did it out of conveience. There is zero Djibouti support. Zero. Djibouti is in fact Somaliland's biggest enemy. You are right, they will be overshadowed with an independent Somaliland. That is why their non-support should make you realize they are your enemies.

You need to get to the drawing board. Somalia wont give Somaliland indepedence when they know the world wont give it to them. Doesn't make sense. What needs to be done is to scratch the backs of the USA and the EU and maybe the AU. Offer them something big. Scratch their back and they will scratch yours. Give the US oil companies exploration rights. Get ready to give them half if oil is found. This should be the topic of discussion in with Silanyo and his cabinet.

Edit: Yes you are right. Make friends. But you have to sell a little bit of yourself in order to make friends. You make political friends by offering stuff. Think of stuff to offer. African countries that offered recognition was just pure talk man. They want something in return. They will recognize ONCE they get something.

[Siciid85]

Dude i don't think anybody wants USA involvement in the Somaliland-Somalia issue, they are a bad news generally as they are known for double-dealing,
opportunism to the highest level so it is best they stay away politically speaking for now. Whether we have oil or not it will remain within Somaliland sphere and
Hillary Clinton won't be allowed to bath in it.

It all depends on what is on at stake, if a united Somalia will overshadow Djibouti to an extent never seen before than obviously Guelleh will not care
about few MP seats, at the end of the day they live in 1 small area of the former Somali republic and that will not change, political representation is good but in
4 years time the 4.5 system will be abolished in Somalia so where will Guelleh's sub clan get MPs? for now he knows he stands to benefit but come 4 years time
his involvement in Somalia is finished and we know what that would mean. So for Djibouti in the near future is a choice between a independent Somaliland that
will overshadow you but not to a greater extent than a 1 united Somalia, so i think we both know which they will support. I don't really expect Somalia to agree
with the recognition of Somaliland, neither will we agree with the unification of former Somali republic, from the looks of it though Somalia is desperate to
have talks with Somaliland, we can channel that emotion of theirs and turn it into our advantage. At the end of the day Somaliland is doing well currently in
terms of a area in unstable east Africa, so it will be Somalia that be will crying for more talks if the current talks between Somalia - Somaliland fail.
Their new president himself said union has two from two sides and not just one so he indirectly admits that there might not even be a union, if attempt to unite
fails then Somalia has no choice but to submit to the wishes of majority of Somaliland citizens which is a recognized Somaliland. Somaliland - Somalia is a
African issue, i much like many nations around the world believe it lies within Africa and the AU. There is also external players that are for pro/against that can also
play a part in it.

[LiquidHYDROGEN]

The number one rule of international politics is to only do something that will benefit yourself (the country). If there was 100 billion barrels of oil, you bet your ass the Americans will push for Somaliland recognition. But if there is nothing to be offered, why look twice?

There is no benefit for any country to recognize Somaliland. No such thing as being nice in intl politics. Even Ethiopia won't do it, the closest country involved in Somaliland, and that is because the Ethiopians are enjoying and benefitting from an unrecognized Somalia both economically and politically. It's a dog eat dog world in politics.

The only friends of Somaliland would be those who would publicly say they will recognize Somaliland and make sure that Somaliland will get its seat in the UN. The countries listed as friend as in fact enemies of Somaliland. UK, former colonists, have showed no support. Development means nothing. US gives aid to North Korea but we all know what kind of relationship they have. Djibouti is a huge enemy of Somaliland. Just yesterday, Ghelleh was in Xamar watching the Somalia political process. This man is a Somaliweynist at heart. He lobbied for 8 of his tribesman from Awdal to join the Somalia parliament. It's obvious what he believes in and wants. If he respected the sovereignty of Somaliland, he wouldnt have lobbied for 8 Issas to get their Xamar paychecks.

Scandinavian countries like Norway have made sure a few percent of their GDP goes towards international development and aid. That is why they are involved in Africa a lot, and in this case Somaliland. They are humanitarians, not looking to be anyones political friend.

The best time for any place to get recognition and their seat in the UN when the colonialists left (like Africa in the 50s and 60s). The next best example was the collapse of the USSR. The other times are individual cases where some superpower (USA) sees that they have an interest somewhere.

Only friends of Somaliland are those who accept them. Why consider someone a friend when they dont acknowledge your existence?

Pretty much sums it up. Somaliland has no enemies, but it doesn't have any friends either. This whole world works on Quid Pro Quo, if you have nothing to offer, dont expect any help.

[The`Republic]

Real Politik was missing in this topic until Kim Jong laid a fat egg in the nest.

[Cumar-Labasuul]

I see the jeberti group are out in full in this thread, did sadeboi issue out a war call directed to bombard this thread

[ZubeirAwal]

Somaliland will never be accepted in the UN and it will never be recognised , Why? because it's pretty obvious that in the Somaliland constitution , It says "anything against the shari'a is void" , acceptance into the UN is against the shari'a and so is being recognised , because at the moment Somaliland is recognised , it will become your typical 'democratic' muslim nation that will kneel , bow, and obey what uncle sam says , and it is obvious that the UN and US and other western nations read the Somaliland constitution , and they feel Somaliland is worthless , of no interest etc.., and this is something good for SLers because we are a nation, we govern ourselves , have a separate currency etc.., So the somalis can't say Somaliland isn't a nation because in a sense of reality we are, and it is an achievement that the pig-headed zionists have 0 influence in Somaliland , it is as if we are being protected by Allah, and whatever Silaanyo says about recognition , it won't happen .

The current democratic government of Somaliland will be the last. After that something remarkable will happen Inshallah, and Allah knows best.

[Khalid Ali]

The US state department is neither pro somaliland or against Somaliland they said that they would support what the Africans support. And the Africans pretty much the entire continent of Africa is either very neutral or pro somaliland excluding Egypt and Sudan. President Paul Kagama raised the Somaliland issue at the African union summit who threatened to leave the entire summit if Somaliland is mentioned again the Egyptians with their allies the sudanis.Its all about interest than again we in Somaliland are pretty lucky the country we are independent from is a failed state the world doesn't really care it hasn't really have real powers in the world pushing their agenda. As for ismaciil cumar geele and Djibouti he totally changed his policy towards Somaliland and Somalia , he has troops in Somalia, he accepted Somalilands passport he also now supports Somalilands observer status in igad. He was the one raised the issue of Somaliland at the london conference suggesting that Somaliland and Somalia should talk. The Egyptians are also losing the Nile war in the near future with south sudan coming up as a new nation the Ethiopians will continue to build their dams.

[Siciid85]

khalid ali i think Riyaale and Paul Kagame once met as head of states. Rwanda is another country that doesn't have a problem with Somaliland sovereignty, those
who have shown hostility again and again are some African Arab countries like Egypt, Libya although they have gone through a regime change they still have
similar policies but are softening up and realising that a united Somalia isn't one-sided it has to come from both sides (Somaliland & Somalia). Wasn't it Gaddafi
AUN who threatened to walk out of a AU meeting if the Somaliland cause was mentioned in the AU when he was the chairman of the African Union? some of the
Arabs are obsessed with one former Somali republic for their own interests such as countering Ethiopia and the Nile issue, yet some naive pseudo- nationalists
think it is because of their love for Somalia lol.

[LiquidHYDROGEN]

khalid ali i think Riyaale and Paul Kagame once met as head of states. Rwanda is another country that doesn't have a problem with Somaliland sovereignty, those
who have shown hostility again and again are some African Arab countries like Egypt, Libya although they have gone through a regime change they still have
similar policies but are softening up and realising that a united Somalia isn't one-sided it has to come from both sides (Somaliland & Somalia). Wasn't it Gaddafi
AUN who threatened to walk out of a AU meeting if the Somaliland cause was mentioned in the AU when he was the chairman of the African Union? some of the
Arabs are obsessed with one former Somali republic for their own interests such as countering Ethiopia and the Nile issue, yet some naive pseudo- nationalists
think it is because of their love for Somalia lol.

[BlackRain]

Saciid, you should add Somalia to the enemies list. The only thing that unites Hawiye and Darod is their stance against the independance of Somaliland

[Khalid Ali]

Siciid that's why we should support Ethiopia and south sudan and other African Nile countries to get more and more rights over the nile river To screw the Arabs the next 50 years will be a war over water.

[KimJongIllest]

Siciid,

4.5 or not, Ghelleh is still going to have much influence in Somalia. Don't be fooled. He doesnt need 4.5. All he needs to do is talk to Xamar and Xamar will gladly give him. This man has become political friends with every single administaration in Somalia. Every single one. They are not enemy countries and not in competition. They have no reason to not be political friends. He got his clan second deputy speaker and 8 reps by asking and he will get it the next time. This can still be done by him with 4.5 or not. This is Ghelleh we are talking about. Not some fake mamuul president. Djibouti shouldnt be regarded as a Sland friend. You know what Djiboutis choice is now and in 100 years. No need to think otherwise. Biggest issue on the table: It is Berbera port vs Djibouti port. Its all about intl politics my friend. They will not recognize you when you have a port that can be fully utilized and be in direct threat to the Djibouti port. That is like helping a friend get lifted off the group while he has a knife in his hand ready to kill you. This is about their very existence man. A recognized Somaliland and they will be in competition with you. If you had a company that controlled 95% of the market, would you gladly accept and welcome a start up company in a market you control? Hell no. You are going to defeat your competitors.

Also, you need the USA if you want recognition. What the USA does, the world does. No one moves without the US moving first. In intl politics, the US will be at every corner with every turn you make. They are king and they have more influence and political power than all Western nations combined. It seems that for you they are the elephant in the room. But they cant be ignored. They are there and you have to work to them. There is no way around it. Somaliland has practically ignored Somalia for the past two decades so how can they ignore the USA? You can't ignore everyone. You go no where with that method.

At the end of the day, we are all entitled to our opinions. But let me tell you something man. Somalia isn't dying to have any talks with Sland. They arent the ones looking for recognition and they arent the ones looking for a seat in the UN. It is you who has to bend backwards. Yes of course Somaliland is doing well (peace, government)and alhamduillah for that but in terms of economics, do you think they have anything on places like Xamar economically (assuming you meant economically Sland is doing better)? Not even close. Somalilanders use Bosaso port because Berbera port has become to pricey to use. Businessmen have found it cheaper to send their goats and camels to the Gulf via Bosaso.

What you have failed to realize is that Somalia doesnt have to do anything for Somaliland. They dont care about the wishes and aspirations of anybody on this planet, nor does the international community care. A bunch of demonstrators with placards that reads "democratic and peaceful somaliland in a sea of instability and violence" is irrelevant and meaningless to the world. no one cares about anyones democratic process. it may get the smiles and approval of some un employees and aid workers but not the USA govt, not the EU, not China, not any govt on earth. they care about interests. not a bunch of illiterate skinny somalis who require remittances from their 3rd cousin in london just to survive.

Whether we dismiss Khatumo state as being a nonexistant state on the ground in Sland, we cannot dismiss their presence in Xamar. You have obstacles to face. Dhulbahante representatives are there. They are somewhat organized and have a voice in Xamar while the Issaq do not. Xamar will listen to them. They might even tell you to recreate your borders if they do accept that you officially leave. But this might not help your case but further hinder it. the world wouldnt be interested in a one clan state. especially africa. ESPECIALLY africa.

as for Somalia-Somaliland being an AU case, it sure is but like i said get ready to stratch their backs.

anywho i am not anti somaliland so no need to bash me as one, i can honestly care less what happens in that dilapidated continent. i truly dont care as its not my home but just like to talk about its politics. my home is north america and its future and its well being is all I care about so think twice before bashing me lol.

[Siciid85]

KimJongIllest your contribution is duly noted.

Siciid that's why we should support Ethiopia and south sudan and other African Nile countries to get more and more rights over the nile river To screw the Arabs the next 50 years will be a war over water.

We are already doing that, not uniting with Somalia = screwing them since a important scheme of theirs is using a united strong Somalia as a proxy against
Ethiopia in the nile issue. So one can understand their frustration at Somaliland for refusing to unite with Somalia.

Saciid, you should add Somalia to the enemies list. The only thing that unites Hawiye and Darod is their stance against the independance of Somaliland

Somalia is just a pawn in the greater game not a actual enemy, their new president has talked diplomatically about the Somaliland - Somalia issue and his
ready to deal with the issue as equals in the former Somali republic (Somaliland & Somalia).

khalid ali i think Riyaale and Paul Kagame once met as head of states. Rwanda is another country that doesn't have a problem with Somaliland sovereignty, those
who have shown hostility again and again are some African Arab countries like Egypt, Libya although they have gone through a regime change they still have
similar policies but are softening up and realising that a united Somalia isn't one-sided it has to come from both sides (Somaliland & Somalia). Wasn't it Gaddafi
AUN who threatened to walk out of a AU meeting if the Somaliland cause was mentioned in the AU when he was the chairman of the African Union? some of the
Arabs are obsessed with one former Somali republic for their own interests such as countering Ethiopia and the Nile issue, yet some naive pseudo- nationalists
think it is because of their love for Somalia lol.

It is the cold truth isn't it lol.

[gurey25]

Siciid,

4.5 or not, Ghelleh is still going to have much influence in Somalia. Don't be fooled. He doesnt need 4.5. All he needs to do is talk to Xamar and Xamar will gladly give him. This man has become political friends with every single administaration in Somalia. Every single one. They are not enemy countries and not in competition. They have no reason to not be political friends. He got his clan second deputy speaker and 8 reps by asking and he will get it the next time. This can still be done by him with 4.5 or not. This is Ghelleh we are talking about. Not some fake mamuul president. Djibouti shouldnt be regarded as a Sland friend. You know what Djiboutis choice is now and in 100 years. No need to think otherwise. Biggest issue on the table: It is Berbera port vs Djibouti port. Its all about intl politics my friend. They will not recognize you when you have a port that can be fully utilized and be in direct threat to the Djibouti port. That is like helping a friend get lifted off the group while he has a knife in his hand ready to kill you. This is about their very existence man. A recognized Somaliland and they will be in competition with you. If you had a company that controlled 95% of the market, would you gladly accept and welcome a start up company in a market you control? Hell no. You are going to defeat your competitors.

Also, you need the USA if you want recognition. What the USA does, the world does. No one moves without the US moving first. In intl politics, the US will be at every corner with every turn you make. They are king and they have more influence and political power than all Western nations combined. It seems that for you they are the elephant in the room. But they cant be ignored. They are there and you have to work to them. There is no way around it. Somaliland has practically ignored Somalia for the past two decades so how can they ignore the USA? You can't ignore everyone. You go no where with that method.

At the end of the day, we are all entitled to our opinions. But let me tell you something man. Somalia isn't dying to have any talks with Sland. They arent the ones looking for recognition and they arent the ones looking for a seat in the UN. It is you who has to bend backwards. Yes of course Somaliland is doing well (peace, government)and alhamduillah for that but in terms of economics, do you think they have anything on places like Xamar economically (assuming you meant economically Sland is doing better)? Not even close. Somalilanders use Bosaso port because Berbera port has become to pricey to use. Businessmen have found it cheaper to send their goats and camels to the Gulf via Bosaso.

What you have failed to realize is that Somalia doesnt have to do anything for Somaliland. They dont care about the wishes and aspirations of anybody on this planet, nor does the international community care. A bunch of demonstrators with placards that reads "democratic and peaceful somaliland in a sea of instability and violence" is irrelevant and meaningless to the world. no one cares about anyones democratic process. it may get the smiles and approval of some un employees and aid workers but not the USA govt, not the EU, not China, not any govt on earth. they care about interests. not a bunch of illiterate skinny somalis who require remittances from their 3rd cousin in london just to survive.

Whether we dismiss Khatumo state as being a nonexistant state on the ground in Sland, we cannot dismiss their presence in Xamar. You have obstacles to face. Dhulbahante representatives are there. They are somewhat organized and have a voice in Xamar while the Issaq do not. Xamar will listen to them. They might even tell you to recreate your borders if they do accept that you officially leave. But this might not help your case but further hinder it. the world wouldnt be interested in a one clan state. especially africa. ESPECIALLY africa.

as for Somalia-Somaliland being an AU case, it sure is but like i said get ready to stratch their backs.

anywho i am not anti somaliland so no need to bash me as one, i can honestly care less what happens in that dilapidated continent. i truly dont care as its not my home but just like to talk about its politics. my home is north america and its future and its well being is all I care about so think twice before bashing me lol.

are you kidding me???
Somalilands economic heart is the livestock trade and this was successfully sabotaged by the carta government when abdiqasim salaad convinced the Saudis to ban all Somali livestock as an attack on Somaliland.
Since 90% of the livestcok trade was in Somaliland hands there was little collateral damage, but devastating to us.
but guess what?
we are still here kicking and screaming, we lost $200 million a year between 1999 and 2009 that $2 billion dollars that could have gone into our economy.
During those years we also had the misfortune of the Riyale government that mismanaged berbera port.
but guess a few months after the kulmiye government it was back to mid 90's rates and after the Saudis removed the ban we have been experiencing a boom.
this year $250 million was exported , and next eyar $400 million is expected.

There was a brief period between 2000 and 2008 when Bossaso was the chief exporter of livestock in the horn, exporting 5 times as much as berbera.
but this was still only around $20 million far less than the boom times and this was also due to an agreement with Ali abdullah saleh to smuggle somali livestock into Saudia through yemen from Bossaso.

when the ban was lifted in 2009 the boom has commenced , and berbera is again close to full capacity while only 2 years ago it was idle and bossaso was busy.