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Perfect_Order wrote:

Nomand wrote:the PM is wrong on this, there is no war between ogadeen and marehan so there is nothing to reconciliate about.

and the federal goverment will not control the seaport or airport. mogadishu is a hawiye city darod are not welcome there and don't have any power so kismaayo is our mogadishu.

the other thing is he came with the 40 qabils live in jubbaland crap there are not even 40 qabils in somalia and how come those 40 qabils are not represented in the capital of somalia? only 1 qabil has the whole capital on lock.

This mentality that it is just Ogaden and Marexaan in the Jubbas needs to stop, it is a very diverse region. There are over 30 clans that live in just Kismaayo, imagine places in Jubbada dhexe.

The federal government controls the airport and port of xamar, while the banaadir administration only gets about 15% of the revenue. The government will soon start to receive revenue from Bosaaso, as they receive it from Merca as well. There is no reason Kismaayo should be exempt from this either. After all, do you know how the revenue from Kismaayo port is being spent?

Actually 200 clans living in Kismayo and 500 in Jubbada dhexee.

Perfect_Order wrote:Talo, I think very much they have the power to stop this Jubbaland conference, because honestly it isn't say much. The whole conference is not based on real legitimacy but on a "perceived legitimacy". Let's say you convene a bunch of odayaal, and "aqoonyaal", you say that they represent the people of this region, how therefore they can make decisions for those people. The only social construct that is being relied upon here is one of "clan" affiliation thereby resulting in some kind of legitimacy. But what, what is the end result? Can these odayaal and aqoonyaal bring any thing worthwhile to the table? Can they bring land, soldiers, people? Now you may say it worked well for the government, so why not now? Well the government had the whole of IC, plus 18,000 amisom troops, to back up their claims. What does Jubbaland have? A few RasKambooni troops? Kenya who now more than ever is towing the line?

If this Jubbaland conference continues to proceed, it will not materlize any tangible change on the ground. The lands still controlled by Alshabab are still controlled by Alshabab, Gedo is still controlled by it's Gudoomiyes and Governor. All of Jubbada Dhexe is in the hands of Alshabab, almost all of Jubbada hoose except the cities of Kismaayo, Afmadow, and Badhaade, but nothing can be said about the outskirts and rural areas.

That is the first folly of this Jubbaland conference. Second is what happens if Jubbada Dhexe falls in the Government hands and they simply put an administration without any input from the "jubbaland president", and that administation says we don't recognize Jubbaland. Same thing with Gedo governors, and mayors, they say we don't recognize the results of the Jubbaland conference. And more to the point, the other districts of Jubbada hoose Jamaame, and Xagar fall to the government, and they set up administrations for them as well. By what authority can any maamul set up by this conference extend their influence or power, when the govt flat out rejects it? Are they going to fight the govt?

The only legitimacy to be derived now is from the government, like it or not. They will simply outgun you sooner or later. And how can you fight them when amisom is right there? For these reasons and more, that is why it has been so crucial to obtain legitimacy from the Federal Government. Without it, it is doomed.

PO, It is the government who needs to seek legitimacy from the people it claims to represent. Remember, the government was not elected by a popular vote but a council of MPs selected by elders. It has to prove its goal is reconciliation and winning the trust of the people. It has no legitimacy because it's an institution imposed on the Somalis by outside powers. So far, it's short-sighted actions has led almost to a war in Baidoa.

The argument about land and alshabaab- the Somalis consist of tribes whose members roam the 4 corners of the earth. Therefore if the argument for liberating land is the fear of under-representation of certain communities, the dispersing of the somalis across the horn dispels this notion. The government can simply observe whose partaking in this conference and evaluate the legitimacy of the process with regards to representation in that regard.
If it's simply to wait to conquer the land before a political settlement, then you run the risk of waging a military campaign without a political direction further compounding the risk of misunderstanding between the somali tribes. It is far simpler to settle things now as they stand and go forward with a working formula.

second, Let me ask you; for a weak government that relies on foreign power for it's day to day survival, whose ruling over a society fraught with mistrust, wouldn't make sense then to tweak this ongoing process which has already cost thousands of dollars and endless meetings, rather than behave in a dictatorial fashion further prolonging the uncertainty and misunderstanding.

Forget about the government for sec, why are you oppose to this state?

As for what will happen to Jubaland if the TFG does not recognize it, it will ultimately depend on the unity of the tribes that live in the area.

As long as there is a consensus between all stakeholders in the J/Land process, the Govt is powerless to intervene.
Any talk of the use of force is all bluster, as has been pointed out, the Govt is on Amisom life support.

This Govt can never be legitimate because Villa Somalia was bought for Damul Jadiid with Qatari $$$$$$.
The folks running the J/Land project should be commended for their sterling efforts in the face of hag machinations.

original dervish wrote:As long as there is a consensus between all stakeholders in the J/Land process, the Govt is powerless to intervene.
Any talk of the use of force is all bluster, as has been pointed out, the Govt is on Amisom life support.

This Govt can never be legitimate because Villa Somalia was bought for Damul Jadiid with Qatari $$$$$$.
The folks running the J/Land project should be commended for their sterling efforts in the face of hag machinations.

The OGs are naturally cool headed. We can only imagine what the fate of Kismayo would have been if Meles was still alive and the Ethiopians went ahead to capture Kismayo with ASWJ, before Kenyan led Kamboni.

You may think that the govt needs to seek legitimacy, but that is false, it already is the legitimate government of Somalia. The only thing it needs to do is gain public support, and for the most part it has. Even the PM recent tours around where he set up new 6-month administrations for Baidoa, Merca, Beledwayne, Caabudwaaq, Dhuusamareeb, Cadaado, and started a working relation with Puntland, and Gedo is on their side, all this gives it more credence than ever before. It's no wonder the PM is trying to tackle this issue after his whirlwind tour. So legitimacy is on their side, no one denies they are the Federal Government of Somalia, not even RasKambooni.

Baidoa, was a small issue, and I assure you, there was danger of war there. It is in the hands of Ethiopian troops, do you think that any administration is strong enough to fight them? The local governor of Baidoa was replaced, despite is short lived resistance.

Yes the govt is militarily weak, but don't forget, it is stronger than RasKambooni. Do you think Raskambooni would be where it is without of Kenya? RasKambooni can not hold it's own against Alshabab, so in relative strength, the govt is stronger than Raskambooni. Also, Amisom is mandated to work with and assist the Federal Govt of Somalia, not RasKamboni. So Raskambooni is twice the weaker here.

As for twerking the conference, that is exactly what the FG is trying to do, turn it into one of reconciliation. But what the Federal Govt can not do, and give legitimacy to, is the current conference as it stands. This opens the door for other regions to convene their own conferences, and try to set up regional administrations (though they control very little land), where it can be easily manipulated, one could even set an administration for a region that doesn't want them, like Baidoa and it's "6-region Konfur state", these new administrations can set up how to deal with military, taxes, deliverance of goods without the govt, and makes the govt beholden to conferences not the other way around. No govt would accept this, and you wouldn't either. The govt has a stronger case to reject this, for the sake of their own power and authority. And for a very weak country, it does not do well if their are to be heads, as priorities and efforts will conflict, resources will be used poorly, and development will stop.

I don't oppose Jubbaland, but I oppose this conference. I see it as useless, with no tangible change on the ground, it will create conflict with the FG when it should be working inline with the FG. It bolsters up Raskambooni's influence, when they are nothing more than a jabhad that rode on Kenyan tanks. Most of the land is occupied by alshabab, so it is speaking for people we have no idea what their real say is, we just think a few clan elders will truly speak for them. The delegate allocation is flawed, and heavily favors Jubbada dhexe, less so Hoose. Gedo is not truly on board, so any outcome will speak for gedo falsely, and we will just say go to hell, you can't govern Gedo. It will be rejected by the Parliament, and most likely the Supreme court that will be constructed.

Tallo, their is no real unity in Jubbaland, now more than ever. Yes a lot of tribal elders are present, but that doesn't say much, these elders can easily be rejected by their people. And they go wherever they are invited to, if the govt was to convene their own conference, they could bring their own elders too.

You keep on saying ''Would RK be in Kismayo without Kenya'' well would Somali federal government even be in moqdishu without Amisom? I guess not, would a Sade govern Gedo without Amisom? I guess not.

Its like they`re offended by the support the the OGs have from Kenya.
"How dare these people solicit outside assistance to achieve their aims"

On the issue of which party is weaker.....I think its self evident.
This is only the beginning of J/Land......you haven't seen anything yet.