Ethiopia reclaims her Hong Kong (Djibouti)

[Hawdian]

Estarix,

Ethiopia is not the old Ethiopia that used to depend on aid and the West so much. It has tested the West again and again with daring policies in recent times. The West is now the one that relies on Ethiopia and Ethiopia is taking advantage of that.

As you know Ethiopia has been diverting aid for the poor for many years now and even blockaded the Ogadens from receiving any assistance much like the Israelis on the Palestinians. When few Western journalists sneaked in we saw what happened to them and the al Jazeera TV.

We saw Ethiopia kidnap ONLF top members from Nairobi.

This week Ethiopia abducted a high opposition figure who is British citizen from Yemen. The British government is silent to this moment.

The Foreign Office has been accused of failing to act to prevent the extradition to Ethiopia of an opposition leader facing the death penalty.

Andargachew Tsige, a British national, is secretary general of an exiled Ethiopian opposition movement, Ginbot 7. He was arrested at Sana'a airport on 23 June by the Yemeni security services while in transit between the United Arab Emirates and Eritrea.

"The British knew he was being held in Yemen for almost a week but they did nothing," said Ephrem Madebo, a spokesman for Ginbot 7. "We are extremely worried about Mr Andargachew, because the Ethiopians kill at will."

The Foreign Office, which called in the Yemeni ambassador earlier this week, said it was urgently seeking confirmation that Andargachew was in Ethiopia.

"If confirmed this would be deeply concerning given our consistent requests for information from the Yemeni authorities, the lack of any notification of his detention in contravention of the Vienna convention and our concerns about the death penalty that Mr Tsige could face in Ethiopia," the Foreign Office said in a statement.

Ethiopia is no longer afraid of the West and its suspension of aid.

[LiquidHYDROGEN]

In a case of a conflict the overwhelming military mismatch would be show itself. Ethiopia has millions of expendable soldiers, a far greater budget and economy to resource and sustain a war, in addition having hundreds of armoured vehicles and tanks, likely hundreds of aircrafts, thousand in artillery, a much more efficient logistic system. Somaliland overglorified militia would be steamrolled in a short period of time. They would also not need to conquer all of Somaliland, just capture Hargeisa and force the leadership to do their bidding. Once the 15,000 Somaliland trained soldiers are eliminated the leadership would probably come to the table anyway.

Lol this guy thinks war is game. If ethiopia decided to invade SL to day, with the current state of the SL army, it would most likely be swept aside by sheer numbers alone. Ethiopians would most likely capture Hargeisa. But that is where the ethiopian advantage would stop. SL is perfect for guerrilla warfare and there are many Isaaq clans who live in the Hawd. From Addis, Diredawa, jigjiga to Hargeisa the ethio army would be harried and harrassed by guerrilla fighters. By that point, most, if not all, of the Hargeisa Population would evacuate to other major towns and cities like Burco and Berbera. That is if Ethiopia caught us off guard. It wont't inshallah and any confrontation we have we'll be prepared. Buying weapons and overhauling our national army would be a starta dnI intend to go and do that when I go back in the next few years. There is also a legacy in our country of beating armies much greater in size and better equiped. We have never lost a war and inshallah we never will.

However The ethioipans would pay with heavy losses (not that they care since most of te fighting would be done by Oromo and somali chattel), captured Hargiesa but having won no strategic victory since they the politicians would've also fled the capital and it would actually reverse mutual friendly relations with them and have turned them into enemies for life. In the meantime I get what I want; the capital moved from Hargeisa, The entire of SL and Isaaq are now enemies of Ethiopia and the Ethiopians would've have suffered major damage to their reptation and suffered significant losses. It would've won a few battles but lost the war.

[Estarix]

Ethiopia would only need to capture the major cities and towns, the Ethiopians would built bases and camps and defences, any tribal militia coming any where near would be gunned down. At the start of the campaign if the government flees to Burco the move would be to capture Burco, if it runs to Ceerigabo then it would move for Ceerigabo. A rapid campaign would result in minimal losses for the Ethiopians. The government would hurredly sign a treaty with the Ethiopians in such a scenario.
But lets just say the government somehow survives, the civillian population in such a case would take a brunt end of the stick.
In the case of an insurgency the potential mayhem which will disrupt urban and rural livelihood, food supply and law and order, this would split the Isaaq society where many will push for a settlement with the Ethiopians. The Ethiopians could exploit this by propelling their own government.

You are right an insurgency coming from the middle of the desert could cause problems especially in logistics, supplying material and weapon through the Hawd would be difficult; but i have no doubt the alternative which is the smaller distance required to travel especially the travel from Djibouti to Zeila to Borama and with heavy armour the result would be minimal losses.
You are false in thinking that inflicting casualties would shake the Ethiopian leadership, if anything it would just embolden as the Tigray has less to worry about as soldiers which could potentially cause a problem for the regime. Ethiopia is like the soviet union this way, they will lose thousands and it will mean nothing; and a destructive and sustained insurgency would result in the destruction of the nomadic livelihood and losses of countless of civilian lives.

[Estarix]

Estarix,

Ethiopia is not the old Ethiopia that used to depend on aid and the West so much. It has tested the West again and again with daring policies in recent times. The West is now the one that relies on Ethiopia and Ethiopia is taking advantage of that.

As you know Ethiopia has been diverting aid for the poor for many years now and even blockaded the Ogadens from receiving any assistance much like the Israelis on the Palestinians. When few Western journalists sneaked in we saw what happened to them and the al Jazeera TV.

We saw Ethiopia kidnap ONLF top members from Nairobi.

This week Ethiopia abducted a high opposition figure who is British citizen from Yemen. The British government is silent to this moment.

The Foreign Office has been accused of failing to act to prevent the extradition to Ethiopia of an opposition leader facing the death penalty.

Andargachew Tsige, a British national, is secretary general of an exiled Ethiopian opposition movement, Ginbot 7. He was arrested at Sana'a airport on 23 June by the Yemeni security services while in transit between the United Arab Emirates and Eritrea.

"The British knew he was being held in Yemen for almost a week but they did nothing," said Ephrem Madebo, a spokesman for Ginbot 7. "We are extremely worried about Mr Andargachew, because the Ethiopians kill at will."

The Foreign Office, which called in the Yemeni ambassador earlier this week, said it was urgently seeking confirmation that Andargachew was in Ethiopia.

"If confirmed this would be deeply concerning given our consistent requests for information from the Yemeni authorities, the lack of any notification of his detention in contravention of the Vienna convention and our concerns about the death penalty that Mr Tsige could face in Ethiopia," the Foreign Office said in a statement.

Ethiopia is no longer afraid of the West and its suspension of aid.

Slightly less than half of Ethiopia's budget comes from donors and other types of foreign aid, and it's the largest recipient of aid in the continent.

[LiquidHYDROGEN]

I was giving an example of an unprepared SL and even then the ethios would lose a lot of men and morale as we harass them from the the K5 region all the way up to Hargeisa. They would find an empty city stripped of resources and anything of worth is either taken or burnt. The truth is a prepared SL would be more than a match for the xabashi forces. A prepared SL would have bunkers, and artillery fortifications all along the border. We would arm and train any loyal tribes in the Hawd and galbeed region as well as send spies to the ethio hinterland to stir up ethnic tensions and arm and train rebel groups. We would only need anti-tank rockets and anti-air missiles as well as artillery and that would wipe out any invading force. Ethiopian jets, if their stupid enough to use them, would be easily taken down with a couple of SAMs like the patriot or cheaper Russian and Chinese models. Their attack helicopters would be dealt with by stingers and machine guns in pill boxes and baracades.

You are looking at it all wrong. You are looking at it from a southerners perspective, or an Ogadenian one. A group of people who couldn't unite around a dinner table and who are constantly backstabbbing eachother. If there is one thing we in SL have it's cohesion and unity even if they take Hargeisa and Burco, we would keep fighting and they would lose in the long-term. Their supply lines would be over-extended, the terrain would be hot, unfriendly and unfamiliar to them. Nobody would pressure the SL government to surrender, if anything the people would fight harder and more resolutely.

[thegoodshepherd]

If you think S/L stands a chance against the Ethiopia of today you are sorely mistaken.
No matter how costly in terms of lives lost, Ethiopia has over 45 million men, essentially a bottomless pit of men.
Ethiopia has a formidable artillery corps, and Somalia learned that the hard way in 1977.
The only way S/L would have a chance in this scenario is if it gets the entire population of Galbeed involved in an uprising, and continued resistance.

[LiquidHYDROGEN]

You are just making baseless assertions now. The somali-ethiopian was a different kettle of fish and has no connection to what I'm talking about. The former was a poorly planned and executed invasion which almost became successful if it wasn't for the intervention by the communist world and their arming of xabashi troops. What I'm talking about is a war of attrition in familiar and harsh terrain. Against poorly equipped and trained ethios. And the ethios we fought in 77 aren't even the same as the ones today. Like I said, the ethios would lose long-term.

[Estarix]

The truth is that Ethios only need to capture Djibouti, somali ragtag militia force and capture border towns such as Zeila and Borama and the Somaliland government would quickly come to the table and cede the territory. I think we strayed too far from the discussion tbh, an ethio war fighting aganst guerilla forces for years would be costly to Ethio in terms of resources and money. Somaliland would be costly in terms of casualties so neither would wish to draw one out if it came to that.

[LiquidHYDROGEN]

What do you think capturing Djibouti, Borama and Zeila will achieve? The will never achieve the first and the second and third towns are small and largely insignificant. How will capturing empty town help the habash? If ethiopia ever tries to invade, they'll go straight for Hargeisa and maybe Burco as well. Lol SL will cede it's own territory? Ninyow sit down, SLtoona ma garaneysid eh. And actually it would be the other way around, an ethio-somaliland war would be financially and resource straining on SL and it would be involve heavy Ethio casualty.

[Estarix]

Thats because the primary aim is to capture Djibouti obviously, you dont need to always aim for total defeat against an enemy, sometimes you just need to demonstrate that fighting is futile. in such a case if Somaliland would wish to continue the war it would have to go on the offensive which would be a heavily disadvantageous position.

Plus i didnt responding to your entire comment because your idea of Somaliland an extremely poor country with no credible tax base, one living of remittances, a country with a government of 200 million budget a year, with few qualified engineers , no large factories or know how to develop own weapons, with an untrained rag tag militia that would not mann or know how to use heavy weaponry against a country with the know how and with capable officers and generals, and relatively much greater military resources and manpower is nothing short of delusions.
If Somaliland arms tribal militias then the Ethiopians will do their own, hell they already have.
Lastly Somaliland leadership currently kisses Ethiopia's ass, and the people see it as an ally. What makes you think they'd destroy their own capital (run to where? Burco is only 220 km) and fight a war - the kind that your stringing up. lol funny joke.
Its nonsense.

[LiquidHYDROGEN]

Why would we need factories? There are few countries advanced enough to develop military hardware. It's much cheaper for now to purchase on the black market. You are again using the wrong argument. I already said if ethiopia were to invade SL today, the SL "army" would be swept away. That is however where the ethiopian victories stop. A war of attrition in which the ethios can't afford to stay or continue against a united and determined foe will ultimately work to our long-term advantage. However, that is due to a lack of preparation. The army currently is little more than a large militia. Building a small but highly trained and equipped army would be part of that preparation. The current administration has diplomatic relations with the ethios, but they do so out of self-interest, not out of fear. You argument makes no sense. In your scernario ethiopia is the agressor, why would we ever surrender to an agressor? We didn't do it when we had little and less to fight for with almost no resources. Why would we do it when we are against the wall with everything to fight for? You don't understand because you come from a culture where you grovel and booty-shake for the same people who kill and rape your people. Of course the concept of resistance and determination is alien to you.

[Estarix]

I'm in full agreement that a guerrilla war would have its own success in that the losses could persuade the occupying power to abandon its objectives, but a war doesnt have to end that way, and as the government is representative of the people, it would do the negotiation. If it sees the war as lost and at the same time ceding territory is good price to pay it will come to the negotiation table. I think it would depend on the attitude of the people and also more importantly the government.

[LiquidHYDROGEN]

The relationship between SL gov and it's people is very different. The dynamic is that the government is held accountable and hostage by the people, not the other way around. So if the government sign a thousand deals with xabash ceding territory away (I can tell you no SL will ever do that regardless of the situation) then the people will flip out and drag that same government out and shoot them. SL is a mob democracy, but still a democracy.

[Hawdian]

It's the old region guys. Ethiopia does not need to use military but her shear human (300mn by 2030) and consumer power (GDP to hit $500bn by 2040). You guys are still in 1977 mentality. The new power is the Birr and the flow of goods. Djibouti is pretty much gone and its now time to make it official by getting her into economic integration.

Military invasions are thing of the past.

[luis1]

LiquidHYDROGEN:

There is also a legacy in our country of beating armies much greater in size and better equiped. We have never lost a war and inshallah we never will.

Somalia has lost many wars.

Ahmed Gurey was defeated by Ethiopia and Portugal

Mohamed Hassan(Mad Mullah) was defeated by England,Italy and Ethiopia

Siad Barre was defeated by Cuba,Soviet Union and Ethiopia.