The SL elections in 2015 will be very interesting to say the least, all 3 parties have bases some more than others some more popular than others.
Let me start with Kulmiye Kulmiye has the advantage because its the government and have done a good job in terms of development the past 4 years.
But if Kulmiye tries to avoid elections in 2015 they will fall harder than Udub, because any one who tries to avoid elections is terrified of the SL electorates, and the SL public will punish any one who messes with Somaliland democratic credentials. Kulmiyes liability is the allies who surrounded the president with bad advises and try to enrich them selves while he is the president. If Siilaanyo was more in charge and he was leading cabinet sessions every day and worked 10 hours a day as a president Somaliland would progress faster than it does. And he could reign longer.
The Clan factor plays a role i dont think this is bad because there are 3 parties because the clans are forced to make an alliance and no clan can claim the throne by him self , the 3 party system is perfect Kulmiye i agree with salah Kulmiye had sacad muse and Arab and HJ are the back Bone , in 2012 the Arab part of kulmiye left the party due to Xaqsoor clashes in Hargeysa. The Sacad muse are still in Kulmiye many left , because of the harassment of many journalists especially Waaheen and the Haatuf , and the treatment of Dr Bidaar and Boobe Yusuf and Maxammad xaashi and his fight with the Minister of minerals Maxammad xaashi joined Ucid and Boobe Joined Wadani and , Dr Bidaar got an international job for the European Union and the African Union. Muse Biixi earlier this year tried to fight the establishment but lost the game , but there is a liability there are rich Sacad muse elites in Hargeysa like ina Aw siciid Omaar and Ibrahiem dhere and they have government contracts Ina Aw siciid doesnt leave the presidential palace. If Jamaal wants to win the entire Hargeysa he needs to target them. Jamaal also needs to in cooperate madasha wadatashiga iyo toosinta iyo jiiftinta into the party a couple of Mujahids he already has ina xaashi but the Ciidagale mujahid to and last but not least xassan ciise jamac to win the Arabs maxammad asxal. Ina aw siiciid is Siilaanyo main campaigner , UCID needs donors rich Habar awal donors Jamaal should go to his uncle Baxsane in Jabuuti and even Khadra Xayd in Jabuuti. Because its money that will make the difference campaign money fund raising adag bay u bahantahay.
Than there is Wadani , Wadani has allot of former udub members mostly from dahir ayaales former supporters former UCID after ciiro and faisal fought in 2011
Wadani was first supported by the government because they thought ciiro can be their ally against gaboose , because gaboose is Muse carre and Muse care are by nature the HY tradional leaders Dr Gabooose came very far but because the HY votes were splitted , gaboose was part of kulmiye he wanted to have his party, later gaboose and his supporters joined wadani to make the party one of the biggest in Somaliland , Wadani is good but they need to try to distinguish themselves from other they call themselves wadani they need to be an SL party ultra right wing , UCID socialist and Kulmiye is a more republican . Wadani has a good back bone mostly from the larger HY clan and segments of Awdal, But Wadani needs one other block to win the elections and because Ciiro is not really a good speaker and cant convince the SL people to vote for him. It will be very difficult for SL people to vote for Him..
Compare Ciiro to faisal cali waraabe faisal cali waraabe is straight to the point he will say straight away dadki iyo dalki qaadki ba babiyey he would bash walanweyns on national tv , he would threaten Puntland with an all out war. Now i know faisal is a bit to extreme but ciiro mahaba nin hadli yaqana. I can assure you if AXMED XASSSAN Cigaal run he would make a great chance to be the next SL president. Waa Qunyor socod and well spoken Idoor educated and he can rally the people of SL behind him. If he runs i will become a Wadani Fan and will like their wadani Page on facebook lol.
Awdal votes will most likely go to Ucid
Jamaal relates to the masses in Awdal
Kulmiye cant win awdal , their elders begged siilaanyo for representation gudi bu u saaray
Ucid will take Awdal
And will come second in Sool
the challenge for Ucid is to win over the clan bases In Hargeysa the majority of the Sacad muse Majority of the Arab
If jamaal focuses on that to win elites with in Hargeysa he can have a great chance winning because berbera will behind him and so will be borama and gabiley
And the people who will say ceerigaabo will not vote for wadani u are wrong , Ceerigaabo has the biggest Wadani head quarters lol
The HY will rally behind Ciiro , the projects the roads will be finilized by any government that comes. the roads of SL has become like ictraafka oo kale why would any one stop that the same way rayaale started the hargeysa bridge but was finished by Siilaanyo.
Salah Al-Din wrote:Le Justicier, I know it is very unfortunate brother, but the Gar Adag conference has shaped the trajectory of Somaliland politics for the foreseeable future. Further, the people have not screened the opposition as what they will do better? All that will happen is they will use a mixture of clan loyalty and the promise to do away with the corruption, nepotism and dictatorial tendencies of Kulmiye only to repeat the same thing once in power. We have a few more election cycles to go before the public will come to realize this farce of a democratic process where political parties use the electorate's appetite for change as a vehicle to get into power only to renege on those promises they made during the campaign.
Of course, it is not to say all political parties do not have support in all regions of Somaliland, I just highlighted the core voting block of each political party. We need to help people to understand if you are a farmer, it is better to vote for a farmer like that, rather than a clansmen who is a nomad as their interests do not intersect. We have a ways to go.
I agree with you all except the area I highlighted. We were in this situation 50 years ago 60s.
Ignoring our mistakes is a sign of immaturity and stupidity. When was the last time you have watched SL tv's or news? It's all sickening " Beesh reer hebel oo taageertay ama canbaaraysay, Dhalinyada Beesha reer hebel etc)
How much longer do we need treatment ?
