So what is the strategy at play here?

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sahal80
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Re: So what is the strategy at play here?

Post by sahal80 »

gurey25 wrote:
sahal80 wrote:Its not that hard to sign oil deals

First the gate will be the SFG, then they can sign tripartite agreement.
No it is much harder because we do not recognize your authoritym
then you can wait till the day of judgement lol

There's similar dozones of cases that SL has been cooperating with under the SFGs mandate from the maritime file to the army/police training and even the turkish consulate in hargeysa works under the auspices of their embassy in mogadishu, there was also a representative from the SFG in the process!
http://www.esteri.it/mae/en/sala_stampa ... o_gdf.html
Actually the oil file is the easiest one bc somalis r corrupt by nature and these leaders r broke, some r even using NGO planes!

It started when SL accepted to partake the conferences along the TFG and the regions with the help of the former UNPOS office like the kampla process for maritime strategy and other conferences in nairobi and addis ababa

Now what's new is all of them working under the SFGs mandate

"We recommend that as a matter of priority, the SFG formalize the Somali EEZ"

Somali Maritime Security and Resource Strategy http://unterm.un.org/dgaacs/unterm.nsf/ ... enDocument


Somaliland Maritime Law http://www.somalilandlaw.com/maritime_law.htm
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Re: So what is the strategy at play here?

Post by Typhoon »

All the major powers have bilateral relations with Somalia and they have their embassies in Mogadishu.
Name one major power block that even contemplates dealing with Somaliland
China, Russia, EU, arab leaguge, AU, IGAD or Latin america
These talks are window dressing; the actual reality is that the talks are part of bigger picture, namely state formation and federalism in Somalia.

As Somalia improves its diplomatic leverage increases, basically Turkey, AU, EU, America and the arabs are doing Somalia`s bidding.

Somaliland has no leverage over Somalia, all they can say is, we won’t` unite, well, Somalia doesn`t care what Somaliland thinks because legally Somalia is one and Somaliland would be reduced to Pakistan’s tribal province.
Somaliland had chance in 1991 with the end of the cold war and the only reason Somaliland question persist is because of Ethiopia.
Image
The entire Somaliland case makes sense from Ethiopian strategic view.
Ethiopia would want a buffer state within the somali political enragement that it exercises suzerainty over .
Ethiopia would never want another sovereign somali state in horn of Africa.

I made a thread about this few years back
Typhoon » Sat Jun 01, 2013 10:52 am
Historically Somaliland was part of axum and Abyssinia on and of throughout history
And Somaliland has been very close and even to close at at times wich irked natives somalilanders
The anti Somali sentiment in wagooyi is a manufacturered sentiment that is part of greater hegemonic struggle for the soul of the people of Somaliland…somalinimo is out
There is a reason why Ethiopia will always want to control the Somaliland region weather somalilanders like it or not and they need to learn to live with Ethiopian strategic security concerns

In hargeisa learning Amharic is very popular and anything Somali is held in disdained..it went from xamar ma rabno to wilka adis ababa deggen ba ii higa---hegemony isa slow process
With Ethiopia growing so rapidly, south Somalis will be forced to recognize their interest and that is: we lost northern regions to ethiopia

Somaliland will never be a country just like palestine will never be a militarised state capable of defending itself against Israel
Ethiopia having a state in its invasion route is like having a nuclear bomb aimed at your country, your will always be at the mercy of outside powers

Somaliland should never have been incorporation into Somalia, for fok sake adal sultanate was decimated because it geographic predisposition of course Ethiopians want to controll anything near it Achilles heel , djoubuti got lucky because bab el mandeb and the world would not allow Ethiopia to control djoubuti

south somalia should use somaliland as leverage to get defensible borders---master strategist know what I mean
another thread few years back
you see bro, difference between me and you is, ethiopia is not a treat to me nor does it want my land, Ethiopians historic aim was always access to the sea, the nearest acces to the sea in terms ofEthiopian highland is in north western somalia.

here is a emperor menilik outlining his policy
"Towards the east are included within the frontier the country of the Borana Gallas and Arussi country up to the limits of the Somalis, including also the Province of Ogaden .

To the northward the line of the frontier includes the Habar Awal, the Gadabursi, and Essa Somalis , and reaches Ambos"
Formerly the boundary of Ethiopia was the sea. Having lacked strength sufficient, and having received no help from Christian Powers, our frontier on the sea coast fell into the power of the Muslim-man.
At present we do not intend to regain our sea frontier by force, but we trust that the Christian Power, guided by our Saviour, will restore to us our sea-coast line, at any rate, certain points on the coast .
Image
f you look at the map you will see why Ethiopian always valued your land, infect when Ethiopians say Somalis were part of abyssinia, there is some trut to it because the isaaq terrotory used to come under Abyssinian Ethiopian rule from time to time.
ethiopian where always ready for land for land deal
1- The Ethiopians came up with a proposal that if a corridor to the sea , to the port of Zeila in British Somaliland, could be given to Ethiopia , they would in turn , be prepared to cede to British Somaliland part of the Ogaden in exchange . They said that Ethiopia was ready to convene a conference on Lake Tana and to have a Boundary Commission
Ethiopia would be compelled in the interest of her own self-preservation to build up armed forces with funds she would otherwise devote to the progress of the people of Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somaliland
that why you where running towards koonfur in 1960 because you knew brittian didn`t build you a state nor a millitry force and brittian moved british somaliland capital from berbera to hargeisa a indefensible erea from ethiopian garrisons in jijiga, infact Great Britain put idoor on a plate for Ethiopians to grap, just like ethiopian were allowed to annex eritrea in the 50s.
the reason you somalilanders where running towards koonfur was never out of love but out of self preservation, but time have changed koonfur is making grand bargain deals with ethiopia
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Re: So what is the strategy at play here?

Post by Typhoon »

the south has accepted Ethiopian hegemonic and strategic claims and that why ethiopia somalia relations has improved greatly in recent years.

the deal between ethiopian and somalia is that somalia exercises nominal sovereignty over somaliland while the Ethiopians exercises suzerainty over somaliland.

somaliland status will not change but their existence is in the framework that I just explained.

southeren politician actual conceded alot to ethiopia when it comes to somaliland, ethiopia can arm twist the somalilanders in terms of air space acces and sea acces and somalia would not consider that voilations of its sovereignty.

there is a symbiotic relation emerging wbetween Ethiopia and Federal government with regards somaliland.

the kenyans tried to do what ethiopia did in northern somalia but they kenyans are not good imperialist, they have hard time controlling their own border let alone extend their influence
influence kenya ma so dhafo nairobi, half of their country is ungoverned space.

what is interesting is djoubuti role in all of this, its seems Djibouti is really investing heavily in the new ethiopia and somalia relations.

wallahi southern politicians are cunning and treacherous what they have agreed with ethiopia is the somali and ethiopian equivalent to Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact.

it makes sense for somalilanders to seek independence because ethiopian hegemony is real in the north in the south its more deterrence.

ethiopian hegomony is know fully concealed behind a veil of legitimacy and acceptance
ethiopia are persistent people from axum kings to menilik to melez and now they all have the same tragic overview

my advice to somalilanders would, aqoonsiga ethiopia bu yala, find a way to convince the ethiopians about the importance of somaliland independence
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Re: So what is the strategy at play here?

Post by samatar133 »

Perfect Order,
soon when the timing and the process of elections is agreed and sorted, SL army will be deployed in the eastern ends of our border with Somalia, few KMs from Garowe, Qardho and Boasaaso. We will see how SFG and Puntland respond to that, any hostility from Somalia will be responded with hostility. In the near future, I predict an increased level of hostility between Somaliland and Somalia that could exacerbate into an armed conflict.

If negotiations are to be restarted in the future, the status of the negotiating sides and what they represent should be clarified as a condition to any engagement. There will be no talks before Somalia first acknowledge that Somaliland represents the people living in the territories of the former British Somaliland. When that condition is met, Somaliland will not care who should Somalia include into their team as long as those in Somalia's team do not claim to represent parts of Somaliland. In the meantime, I predict an increased hostility between the sides.

Sahal,
Tiiyoo geel loo heesayo ayaad adna wali gorayo u heesaysaa. Waxa laysku hayaa waa kala g'o iyo sidii loo kala bixi lahaa, adna waxaad wali hadal haysaa boolis layska kaashado iyo bad la wagaago iyo waxyaabo aan wakhti xaadirkan meesha oolin. I think you don't fully understand Somaliland's position!
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Re: So what is the strategy at play here?

Post by gurey25 »

sahal80 wrote:then you can wait till the day of judgement lol

There's similar dozones of cases that SL has been cooperating with under the SFGs mandate from the maritime file to the army/police training and even the turkish consulate in hargeysa works under the auspices of their embassy in mogadishu, there was also a representative from the SFG in the process!
Then we will wait till judgment day.
The reason we attend all these meeting is to keep the world in the picture.
Everyone knows our case, you cannot sweep it under the carpet, and you will have to deal with this sooner or later.

Your diplomatic analysis are generally correct but you have one glaring blindsight,
you cannot imagine or understand how useless somalia is, and how little somalilander have for your internal politics.
its ridiculous and embarassing.

We dont want to play the game, we dont think you are worth anything.
once you understand this you will understand the Somaliland mindset.

all this talk about lots chances, missing out on powrsharing.
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Re: So what is the strategy at play here?

Post by nord »

Typhoon wrote:
Somaliland has no leverage over Somalia, all they can say is, we won’t` unite, well, Somalia doesn`t care what Somaliland thinks because legally Somalia is one and Somaliland would be reduced to Pakistan’s tribal province]
Wrong. Somalia legally has no control over Somaliland. It is internationally recognised as an autonomous region, not controlled by the somali government.
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Re: So what is the strategy at play here?

Post by Typhoon »

nord wrote:
Typhoon wrote:
Somaliland has no leverage over Somalia, all they can say is, we won’t` unite, well, Somalia doesn`t care what Somaliland thinks because legally Somalia is one and Somaliland would be reduced to Pakistan’s tribal province]
Wrong. Somalia legally has no control over Somaliland. It is internationally recognised as an autonomous region, not controlled by the somali government.
waxaan o kale ba iska jira, you can play with words as much as you want but autonomous region means Notting in the overall somali sovereign claim.

somalia is a member of the united nations do you know what that entails?
somalia is the only sovereign authority from Djibouti border to kenyan border.
weather somalia controls its territory or not is besides the point, because no UN member state or international organisation has disputed somalia`s territorial sovereignty, infect the UN and its member states constantly affirm somalia`s territorial integrity.

somalia was never a terra nullius because somalia is a UN member state and everything somaliland claims really means noting.
talking points mean noting, it doesn`t matter weather you have all the symbols of a state, the fact of the matter is attaining sovereignty as a state and UN membership is a whole another league .

somaliland can`t even get into into the category of "Non-UN member states recognised only by non-UN members" or "Non-UN member states recognised by at least one UN member"

you guys need political scientist and legal expert because you lot don`t understand the basics of the international system.

the international Westphalian system is not based on tribal logic or hope, its based on power and legality.
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Re: So what is the strategy at play here?

Post by Xildiiid »

Perfect Order,

We shouldn't deal with them at all because they won't change their stance. I also oppose dealing with Djibouti and Ethiopia given their ambiguous nature. Djibouti has never been sincere when it comes to Somali issues and Ethiopia is trying a different strategy to cover her expansionist motives.

I believe the government of Somaliland should deal with the problems in Somaliland first. Secure the the borders with an iron fist and total decimation of rebel groups. Then I believe the government should focus on our primary sector and develop the livestock and mining industry, with one of the world's largest mineral deposits, it will be the backbone of our economy. Reorganize taxation and create a central monetary policy that will protect the SL shilling against inflation but also make sure we have enough hard currency. With our revenues, the government could fund various projects in the fields of education, health, infrastructure and our military. I could go on..

When you have a strong country with a viable market, other countries will deal with you on equal terms because it's all about interests in this world. Aduunyadu danta way kala leedahay laakin dantu waa inay isu miisaanaata sxb.

We wish Somalia success but we'll oppose cooperation with Somalia as long as it claims our country and we'll fight to the bitter end if we have to.
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Re: So what is the strategy at play here?

Post by theyuusuf143 »

Typhoon

Ethiopia has no political or military presence in somaliland. they dont support our armed forces, they have no economy power in our country in fact we are the ones who control many of their main revenue sources. its easier for them to control kismayo without efforts using their own kilil5 subjects who are 100% willing to cooperate with them. berbera wax go lagu qaado ka weyn. the fact that we used the xabashis against afweyne does not mean they have influence in our country, they used us too against afweyne and adweyne used the tigrays against mingiste. somalilanders has nothing todo with the xabashis other than trade and business. we are not easy prey we are ambitious. somaliland belongs to us only and we have the balls and the gut to defend by any means.
Last edited by theyuusuf143 on Fri Mar 06, 2015 12:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: So what is the strategy at play here?

Post by Xildiiid »

^
Indeed, people like Sahal and others from Somalia have one goal only and that is to become a vassal state to the Turks and indirectly NATO.

We Somalilanders have goals beyond Somaliland and correcting a fatal mistake our grandfathers made in 1960. We want to regain territory we lost to the Abyssinian kingdom like Hawd and the Reserve area and we want to become a regional player especially when it comes to the dark continent, mother Africa. There are many countries in Africa and the 3rd world that show a lot of sympathy to our cause and once we've established ourselves I believe we'll become players of the same team, against western domination.
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Re: So what is the strategy at play here?

Post by sahal80 »

Eaglehawk

Your great at the westren strudies and strategies but when it comes to the history of this region, I think you still need alot to discover specially its connections with the arabian peninsula

Aksum has never had a control on the somali sea, rather it was hadramout-aden-

Aksum was allied with saba, futher on the north and has landed from there

Ethiopias position from SL is not different than its position from PL or any other somali region, its the reason why SL hasn't been recognized despite pentagon backing this till the mid-2000s if the AU makes the first move

Security-wise, ethiopia supports more the stability in the north-including PL- than the south bc its closer to them, use their ports but generally speaking ethiopia sees somalis as clans not as adminstrations or as a govt since haile salase

Why ethiopia let's wabar front to have a base inside her despite SL being its ally?

I researched this and all the conclusions I got were that "these clans are both citizens of the two sides", therefore, ethiopia can't arrest them!!

Ethiopia will not allow strong somali northern country that can have every thing, plus, its ports will be expensive and demand hard currency just like djibouti!

More somali countries can influence in the regional organizations and the african decision!

Ethiopian policy for the whole of somalia is balkanization

There's secret ethiopian document that was exposed by matt bryden and it belonged to the former ethiopian FM

He talks about 5 qabiil enclaves and names them one by one!!

It dates back to 1998-when it was exposed-
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Re: So what is the strategy at play here?

Post by Hodan94 »

These failed talks gained sl a good cv.
everytime these guys open their mouths of so called talks next time, we can shove the evidence of these failed talks up their arses.
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Re: So what is the strategy at play here?

Post by theyuusuf143 »

@sahal

if Culusaw militarily or financially supports our rebels we will invest destabilising somalia too, we will support all clan based regional border disputes , we will also contribute alshabaab using indirect channels. my enemies enemy is my freindenemy . there is nothing culusaw or any hawiye controled administration is getting from supporting a bunch of uncountable rebels who are not loyal for somalia nor for somaliland. we have nothing against if he makes a political lip service for them in exchange of some votes but somalia will pay the price if they provide any harmful assistant to our rebels. we won't tolerate that. our rebels are pure clan minded they dont care somalia despite using fake blue symbols to cover their true agenda. any hawiye who get involves isaq dhulos issues is a naive.
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Re: So what is the strategy at play here?

Post by nord »

Typhoon wrote:
nord wrote:
Typhoon wrote:
Somaliland has no leverage over Somalia, all they can say is, we won’t` unite, well, Somalia doesn`t care what Somaliland thinks because legally Somalia is one and Somaliland would be reduced to Pakistan’s tribal province]
Wrong. Somalia legally has no control over Somaliland. It is internationally recognised as an autonomous region, not controlled by the somali government.
waxaan o kale ba iska jira, you can play with words as much as you want but autonomous region means Notting in the overall somali sovereign claim.
You are playing with words, as you will see. Autonomous region means freedom from and external authority. Somaliland is internationally recognised as that, hence no other governments are able to control it.
somalia is the only sovereign authority from Djibouti border to kenyan border.[/b] Does that matter?
weather somalia controls its territory or not is besides the point, because no UN member state or international organisation has disputed somalia`s territorial sovereignty, infect the UN and its member states constantly affirm somalia`s territorial integrity.
So only a UN member state can dispute sovereignty? What was the point of bringing this up anyway? Off topic for what I posted.
somalia was never a terra nullius because somalia is a UN member state and everything somaliland claims really means noting.
talking points mean noting, it doesn`t matter weather you have all the symbols of a state, the fact of the matter is attaining sovereignty as a state and UN membership is a whole another league .
Further off topic points, attaining UN membership is not something I posted about.
somaliland can`t even get into into the category of "Non-UN member states recognised only by non-UN members" or "Non-UN member states recognised by at least one UN member"
Passive aggressive attack on somaliland.
you guys need political scientist and legal expert because you lot don`t understand the basics of the international system.
More attacks.
the international Westphalian system is not based on tribal logic or hope, its based on power and legality.
More attacks.
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Re: So what is the strategy at play here?

Post by theyuusuf143 »

Typhoon wrote:
nord wrote:
Typhoon wrote:
Somaliland has no leverage over Somalia, all they can say is, we won’t` unite, well, Somalia doesn`t care what Somaliland thinks because legally Somalia is one and Somaliland would be reduced to Pakistan’s tribal province]
Wrong. Somalia legally has no control over Somaliland. It is internationally recognised as an autonomous region, not controlled by the somali government.
waxaan o kale ba iska jira, you can play with words as much as you want but autonomous region means Notting in the overall somali sovereign claim.

somalia is a member of the united nations do you know what that entails?
somalia is the only sovereign authority from Djibouti border to kenyan border.
weather somalia controls its territory or not is besides the point, because no UN member state or international organisation has disputed somalia`s territorial sovereignty, infect the UN and its member states constantly affirm somalia`s territorial integrity.

somalia was never a terra nullius because somalia is a UN member state and everything somaliland claims really means noting.
talking points mean noting, it doesn`t matter weather you have all the symbols of a state, the fact of the matter is attaining sovereignty as a state and UN membership is a whole another league .

somaliland can`t even get into into the category of "Non-UN member states recognised only by non-UN members" or "Non-UN member states recognised by at least one UN member"

you guys need political scientist and legal expert because you lot don`t understand the basics of the international system.

the international Westphalian system is not based on tribal logic or hope, its based on power and legality.

so what can somalia do if some UN member states or non members decide to recognise somaliland ? you think in UN tu idinla dhalatay lool. political dynamics can change from time to time there are many countries who can simply buy our story if we create political ties with them. no body cares about your sovereignty if it does not effect their political situation. countries like ethiopia kenya may not recognize us because thry are have similar separatism problems. but there are many other countries who has no separatism phobia.
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