Official Somaliland election prediction thread!

[SuldaanMaplesyrup]

Agree with you on most points. I just don't think it will be as close as you make out.
In every election we have had in Somaliland Kulmiye has won Maroodijeex (50% 2010), Togdheer (68% 2010) Sool (74% 2010) and Sanaag (49% 2010) This will happen again as nothing has changed since the last election. In fact it might be even more polarized this time around. You can add Saxiil to that in this election which was 53% win for UDUB in 2010 and previous elections.

All that's left is Awdal and even if you give Wadani 90% (however unlikely) it still won't be enough.

There is absolutely no excitement in this election. If only Wadani had a live body as a candidate, some one with a pulse and with some karti we might have had an election. This guy has spent the past 5 years laughing and grinning instead building a powerful opposition.

That is true, Cirro is a terribly weak politician. He does however enjoy the privilege of hailing from a large clan who are all rallying to put him in power. I know it is not a determining factor for how many votes a party gets, but the turnout at both Kulmiye and Wadani rallies in the big cities suggests to me that some places will be tightly contested.

I'm not convinced Wadani will win big in Awdal, but yes even if they did get a landslide it will not be enough to counter Kulmiye gains in the rest of the country.

Wow suldaan great analysis but is a gebiley a province where the cites of waajale gebiley arabsiyo kalabaydh abaarso come under its jurisdiction

I wouldn’t be surprised if salaxley doesn’t become a kulmiye stronghold knowing how devious faysal is he would urge his kinsmen to vote kulmiye like he did in the election but we will see inshallah

Gabiley is still part of Maroodi Jeex

It's too late for Faysal to get people to vote for Kulmiye, but in the rare event that he drops out of the race this week, Wadani would get a significant boost in Salaxley and Hargeisa.

I am speechless. Sir SuldanMapleSyrup, you have outdone yourself, take a bow.

Such insightful analysis, I believe you are on the money.

Perhaps Somaliland should save some $$ and just implement your recommendations?

If this ends up being right, I might just have to move back home and open a research firm.

Ipsos Somaliland

[JSL3000]

I think kulmiye win by slight margins unlike suldaan predictions nice effort though by this election is completely different than 2010.

[Ben Dover]

SuldanMapleSyrup's projected outcome is probably the best Wadani can hope for.

I can swear Cirro knows he will lose.