sahal80 wrote: Tue Dec 19, 2017 8:10 am
Adali wrote: Tue Dec 19, 2017 7:47 am
sahal80 wrote: Tue Dec 19, 2017 7:36 am
Xaaf got his own problems and what is happening in xamar is not his business bc Galmudug is a regional state not qabiil state this issue waxay u taal HG as qabiil and politicians.
He was welcomed in xamar by the HG army officers mostly the second line who r not loyal to the Govt
The guy in your avatar and others in the first line dont control shit as the structure of the army is based on qabiil
Xaaf has won the war with the help of the federal states bc the govt has retreated from its position like calling a new elections and carabeey being the acting president. Carabeey meel cidluu ku soo dhacey marka xaaf buu isku dhiibay xaafna wuxuu yiri intaan mid kale keeni lahaa kan hada ii baahan aan iska haysanaa. Carebeey wuxuu yiri sxbow waa iga dhuumatey laakiin hada kadib waa kaaa danbeyn hadaad waxaad soo qaraabbatid wax iga siisid xamar danbe uma shaxad tagayo and you will see carabeey oo mucaarad ah this is not kutiri kuteen just telling you how xaaf is in control of every thing
he is building HG front and mudug front. MJ and HG r united now they r making now a mixed GLK army after the mixed police. Ethiopia and gaas r involved in xaaf heshiis with ahlussuna.
People nowadays say garguurte was smart bc he was using the regions against PL. Now PL uses the regions against the govt . HG and MJ politicians have common strategy they think they can fill the political vocuum in Xamar left by Abgaal but they have different tactics. MJ will gain constitutional goals by using the regions in their separatist agenda also they r after the presidents seat be it gaas or CCC they all want early elections bc they king there no now strong HAG candidate who has millions. HG is mainly after the PM.
GLK
https://www.garoweonline.com/so/news/pu ... i-galkacyo
interesting view point.
Sahal you think CCC or Gaas has a chance to become president or pm in the future ?
MJs r not popular but laba wax yaa madaxwaynaha sameeya; 1 dabeesha dawladaha shisheeye sida Qatar, Turkey, UAE, Ethiopia and Kenya
Sharif, Garguurte, Farmaajo all were/r pro qatar and turkey yacni islaax iyo ala sheekh aka muslim brotherhood that why even fiqi was pushing the motion against the UAE in the parliament despite his khilaaf with farmaajo
Seconf factor is the local alliances like the regional leaders and the political blocs aka mps
Turkey farmaajo masiin lacagtii bil kaste Garguurte la siin jiray waxay ku tiri la heshii ikhwaanka oo buri calmaani khayre ama ikhwaanka ayaa take pressure saarey intey pm ka helaayaan
Sababtaas waaye waxa khayre xaasanada uga qaadi rabo xassan macalin the leader od daljir who backed farmaajo with over 40 mps in the last elections
Farmajo waxaa u soo harey bas qatar dhanka fahad yaasiin
Current buuq helps mj politicians in order to deploy these political blocs for their agenda and once Farmaajo was ousted they will use the foreign factor make REAL heshiis with HG over the pm post
There r the abgaals who r waiting for such chance but they need to unite under one candidate and gather millions of $$$ as they no have govt backing but is like Turkey will support an angaal candidate in such scenario so both MJ and HG will lose their bet
So to reverse to current situation Farmaajo neeeds to get an ikhwan hiraab pm for the external and internal factors hadii kale chance kiisa waa ku cayaari.
Sahal you are making good political analysis, however you are missing one crucial element, the massive support for Farmaajo by the Somali people, this new awakening is nothing to take lightly, Somalis are energised and support the dowlad like never seen before.
You are right Farmaajo also need local strong tribes, however they are not as crucial as mass support from Somalis.
HG have stigma on them cus they are working with dhaboyaco who have lost face in Somali politics, they are basically today like MX was directly after the civil war, they still hold connection abroad via people like CCC however he is hated and has many local enemies.
You analysis is based on loyalty build on money, however Farmaajo has both the funds and the loyalty build on Somalinimo, and he is open minded about working with whoever supports his agenda, while working hard to build the institution that makes a reputable government allowing for more diversity by limiting monopolies held by warlords for 26 years and securing foreign funds for his government.
There was just news about the IMF also prepared to nullify any debt we owe them and willing to lent the SFG funds for projects and administrative cost.
Going forward, Farmaajo will need HG and Abgaal, hence why he is giving them so many position, more than their fair share, however he is not building Mogadishu government but instead a Somali government, his support will only grow you cannot deny that.
You claimed he will be ousted, however all attempts have failed.
Make better analysis Sahal.
