Cross roads for somaliland

[original dervish]

You must be still high from last night.
Why don't you guys solve the Palestinian conflict while your at it.

[Ben Dover]

Bro it's been almost thirty years. The international community might send a minister or an ambassador once in a while but they will never recognise us unless we force Mogadishu to recognise us first. There has to be a proactive stance. The paradigms shift. Somalia is at a stage now were they're saying we'll give you our oil just stabalise us. It won't be a failed state forever and even if it is, that is of no interest to us as we'll be poor isolated and Somalia will be poor and failed and the people on the ground will be suffering. There is no way we can continue on this trajectory. The Somali Republic isaaq and hawiye bringing there tables together. Why should we be like the kurdistan region while the real kurds are sitting in the seat cumar arta qalib vacated in 1993.

We have to create a favourable constituion move the capital to hargeisa so we can easily conduct coups if things out against our interests and drum up irirsim.

There's no such thing as somalinimo and democracy. The future Somalia is heading to authoritarianism. Coups, counter coups, assassinations. Dominance over state assets. We were naive last time. Now we are in a perfect position to strike. The 30 years we have left Somalia will give us a lot of breathing space of staying in power which will be more than long enough to consolidate power. If isaaq and hawiye are on board and we give Ethiopia port access there is also no chance of rebel groups. You strike iron when it is hot. This is our time

You are not Isaaq. You cant be Isaaq if you are this weak mentally.

You need to answer a simple question, is Somaliland a country? Only a yes/no answer is needed.

If it is indeed a country, then you should operate from that POV. If it is not, then you were playing games all along and were not serious.

Your problem is you are building up a bizarre and unrealistic scenario where Somaliland is in the weakest possible position, whilst simultaneously propping up Somalia into an a most a most unrealistically power-hand. It does not work like that.

I have explained above, it is undeniable that Somaliland is today stronger than any other point in its history, diplomatically, militarily and economically, absolutely undeniable. On the other hand, Somalia is spiralling down the same endless pit of lawlessness and destruction.

- Al Shabab are not getting contained, they are actually getting stronger.
- Renegade federal states are only getting bolder.
- International community is even more dismissive of the administration in Mog.
- For the first time ever, sovereign states are publicly ignoring Somalia and dealing with Somaliland as a sovereign state.
- Neighbouring countries are explicitly splitting up Somalia's territorial waters and land.

I can go on...

The status quo is not good for us, we all agree on this. But it is even worse for Somalia, on so many levels. International recognition is not the be all end all goal, Somalia has international recognition, and look at the state of it. You would be stupid to trade what little you have now to become another Somalia. So stop getting worked up about unrealistic scenarios that you've just made up, it will never materialise.

If you think you have it bad imagine being from Mogadishu, getting bombed every other day, or from Al Shabab controlled area.. worse still, imagine being a godforsaken qurjiile wandering in no mans land, where nobody gives a shit about you and you have no voice or say in your destiny or prospects of ever developing.

I dont know what the future holds, but I can confidently say that Somaliland will never, ever, share a state with Somalia again. That ship has sailed. Some delusional folk who posted in this thread were claiming that Somaliland will not exist beyond 2015!

We can have other arrangements but we will never share a state.

[MajorIgaare]

Somaliland gave up its statehood on the first of July. The war to fully regain the statehood back is not over and has not been won. The international community recognising Somalia in 2013 or whenever is was changed the paradigm. To think somalia will be a failed state forever is ridiculous. They have one key state institution that we don't and that's recognition. Hawiye and darood are fighting over that institution. If darood were to ever consolidate that institution its an existential threat to somaliland. Why would you want to concede that leverage to darood instead of consolidating it yourself riding it till the wheels fall off and putting clauses in the constituion like Ethiopia one for succession. The world is about economics. If they monopolise it and drill for oil they will laalush us and break us apart like we do to dhulbahante. Why is America so powerful. They monopolised the world economy after ww2. This lead to them having the best military and being able to apply sanction and cripple countries. We are in a perfect position to monopolise power right now and create an irir alliance that's unbreakable.

[Ben Dover]

Somaliland gave up its statehood on the first of July. The war to fully regain the statehood back is not over and has not been won. The international community recognising Somalia in 2013 or whenever is was changed the paradigm. To think somalia will be a failed state forever is ridiculous. They have one key state institution that we don't and that's recognition. Hawiye and darood are fighting over that institution. If darood were to ever consolidate that institution its an existential threat to somaliland. Why would you want to concede that leverage to darood instead of consolidating it yourself riding it till the wheels fall off and putting clauses in the constituion like Ethiopia one for succession. The world is about economics. If they monopolise it and drill for oil they will laalush us and break us apart like we do to dhulbahante. Why is America so powerful. They monopolised the world economy after ww2. This lead to them having the best military and being able to apply sanction and cripple countries. We are in a perfect position to monopolise power right now and create an irir alliance that's unbreakable.

All I am seeing are 'ifs', and more 'ifs', and even more impossible 'ifs'.

We deal with reality on the ground, not hypotheticals.

There is nothing for Somaliland to gain from going back to the union, literally nothing. Look at Puntland, what did they gain from becoming the most stable maamul goboleed in Somalia?

Isaaq have moved on, there is no going back now.

[Mk777]

Somalilanders why not think of and implement this plan of infiltration at least 10 years ago?

[MajorIgaare]

There was no recognised government in Somalia 10 years ago. There was still a chance there could have been a Kosovo style partition of the country. That is out of the question now as Somalia is part of the community of nations again.

[Mk777]

There was no recognised government in Somalia 10 years ago. There was still a chance there could have been a Kosovo style partition of the country. That is out of the question now as Somalia is part of the community of nations again.

Sax. It would be wiser for you guys to ally with D&M to serve your interest truth be told. D&M live in every single region in south Somalia and will be a major political force 5-10 years time.

[theyuusuf143]

Somaliland gave up its statehood on the first of July. The war to fully regain the statehood back is not over and has not been won. The international community recognising Somalia in 2013 or whenever is was changed the paradigm. To think somalia will be a failed state forever is ridiculous. They have one key state institution that we don't and that's recognition. Hawiye and darood are fighting over that institution. If darood were to ever consolidate that institution its an existential threat to somaliland. Why would you want to concede that leverage to darood instead of consolidating it yourself riding it till the wheels fall off and putting clauses in the constituion like Ethiopia one for succession. The world is about economics. If they monopolise it and drill for oil they will laalush us and break us apart like we do to dhulbahante. Why is America so powerful. They monopolised the world economy after ww2. This lead to them having the best military and being able to apply sanction and cripple countries. We are in a perfect position to monopolise power right now and create an irir alliance that's unbreakable.

Somaliland is muqadas , that's our holyland , at the same time we should play active role in somalia to protect our interest. That's enough. In other words we should behave like hypocrites because that's how Southerners like. Just look at puntland they are the worst hypocrites I have ever seen. Preaching what they don't believe , yet they have More access to Somalia sensitive positions which are direct threat to our interests. MJ contributes zero percent to somalia government budget and military Force. Isaaqs should behave the same and compete daarod mercenaries in Mogadishu. Eventually hawiye will kick out all mercenaries including ours but now we should beat them in their own game and run the whole show. As bayle said in his famous song #SOMALIA-WAA-MASHRUUC . Indeed it's mashruuc because he just completed his first building in hargeisa , we need More like beyle. hypocrites with good reputation

[original dervish]

[AwRastaale]

Looks like the weak and lonely secessionists deleted my comment. They know it hits them hard with facts like a bunker buster bombs.

Too late everyone has already seen it

By the time you wake up from the long victim mentality, once again the South is already a dominant force and Waqooyi will not even have any thing in its arsenal to negotiate with. They will follow their kids as they seek jobs, education and opportunities in the south.

The greatest denominator is economic prosperity and economic opportunities.

Waqooyi lost its opportunity to become an equal negotiator.

I already see the scale tip.

For example army



Compared to tribal militias with few relics from Barre era. Very poorly trained with no one with modern military skills available to them nor resources.

Education



Diplomacy and economic policies; even Saudia shut them down and there's nothing UAE can say or do because secretly they want to work with Somalia again. They know where things are heading.

Secessionists now need clearance certificates from the Federal government or Saudi doesn't take their animals. Damn that hurts.

Now reer Waqooyi nomads will take their animals to Bosaaso.



The rest is pretty clear. On top of that no more weekly trips to Ethiopia or cuddle burning. I'm surprised they didn't burn any for the four officials killed this weekend in Addis and Bahir Dar.

Game over. All the writing is on the wall so not surprised reer Waqooyi lost faith in isolation and the dead victimism ictiraaf.

Weak secessionists can try to put a lid on the reality but the little project long fell apart while unity gains strength after strength

[Farah072]

I think awraastale is triggered because other Isaaqs didn’t come to his aid in gashaamo

[original dervish]

Delusion can only take you so far......eventually reality hits you in the face like a wet fish.

[paperino]

Somaliland is muqadas

Istaghfurullaah.

[Khalid Ali]

Bendover said it all Somaliland it's independence it's struggle for rerecogntion it's very existence came with a heavy price under circumstance will the sadaat nation be under walanweyn warrawarood and others in the south we have known these people. There is no benefit of Somaliland to share anything with walanweyns jabartis. So such defeatist post is useless really sxb This debate of wanting the capital we don't want anything from Somalia. There won't be any talks the next decade.

[theyuusuf143]

Somaliland is muqadas

Istaghfurullaah.

Somaliland is Not only muqadas , but holier than jureslem.