Somaliland is politically isolated...for now

[Xildiiid]

For a long time Somaliland had a cordial relationship with Ethiopia.

All of its top brass in the military are trained there. Ethiopia was where the SNM went into hiding and where it received local support (same clans across the border) before launching cross border raids.

In many ways Somaliland saw Ethiopia as a strong ally and a shield. It’s been fortunate in its entire existence never having to face a resurgence Somalis due to the unrest and anarchy in the south but it could count on Ethiopia lending a hand since they both had a common Enemy.

Times have changed. Ethiopia is deeply divided and weakened as a result. The new guy has thrown his support behind Xamar. Countries continue to open embassies in Xamar. Somalia is looking more and more like a functioning country.

Somaliland is politically isolated. All the countries that border it are pro one Somalia.

However the dispute btw Kenya and Somalia regarding the seas has opened an opportunity for Somaliland. Kenya is not like Ethiopia nor does it border Somaliland. Kenya May recognize Somaliland. Unclear what impact that will have on the continued resurgence of Somalia

We shall see, reer somalia day the same thing pretty much every year. The status quo will continue sxb.

There are two forces that are aligning against Somaliland. One is fundamental which was always there, the Dhulos whose loyalty was bought and made to submit with the barrel of the gun, disenfranchised Iidoor clans like the HY, others etc looking to level the playing field with the HA/HJ alliance. The other now is a Somalia getting significant financial and military support.

If the N&N party's candidate wins JL, it will mean the integration of the SNA will speed up. Already the Americans have begun to pay for some of their Salaries. With all the foreign money pouring into N&N pockets, it does not take a rocket science to predict they will start arming & recruiting some of the tribal militias in the North to join the SNA.

This is your wet dream but its far from reality!

[paperino]

There are two forces that are aligning against Somaliland. One is fundamental which was always there, the Dhulos whose loyalty was bought and made to submit with the barrel of the gun, disenfranchised Iidoor clans like the HY, others etc looking to level the playing field with the HA/HJ alliance. The other now is a Somalia getting significant financial and military support.

If the N&N party's candidate wins JL, it will mean the integration of the SNA will speed up. Already the Americans have begun to pay for some of their Salaries. With all the foreign money pouring into N&N pockets, it does not take a rocket science to predict they will start arming & recruiting some of the tribal militias in the North to join the SNA.

Good analysis.