my prediction on the out come of Mogadishu talks comes true

[sahal80]

[AbkoowDhiblaawe]

Bye bye xaliimo yareey

[sahal80]

Bye bye xaliimo yareey

Banaadir waa noo diideen PL iyo JL laakin dont worry waxay ku xirantahay baarlamaanka already they voted waxaa haray qodobka in la badalo si mooge u saxiixo haduu toos u saxiixana waa kaas laakin wuxuu ka baqaa "inuu qodob dastuuri ah jabiyo kadibna motion laga keeno"

dastuurka ay ku qorantahay tirada xubnaha aqalka sare laguma dari karo tiro cusub ayadoo qodobkaa la badakin. baarlamaanka aan ku noqono before Abgaal president gets elected


Guul wayn waaye from nov to feb doorashada baaralamaanka waa la soo gabagabaynaa. december 30 ay ugu egtahay no more than one month.




Mursal goob joog uu ahaa( observer) wuxuu damaanad qaadey inuu baarlamaanka ka ansaxinayo.

[grandpakhalif]

No wonder your regions didn't score the top students. The task awaiting Somalia is daunting if your understanding of Somalia's ongoing state formation through this simple and predictable process playing out is this challenging to understand.

voltage what does this mean for Gedo? the 6th qodob says only two cities shall voting take place. Also the other point states that Aqalka sare shall he elected by mamuul goboleed. No way Fartaag and co will represent Marehan in Gedo without their permission. the Stooges in Kismayo must be breathing a sigh of relief

[Osob101]

No wonder your regions didn't score the top students. The task awaiting Somalia is daunting if your understanding of Somalia's ongoing state formation through this simple and predictable process playing out is this challenging to understand.

voltage what does this mean for Gedo? the 6th qodob says only two cities shall voting take place. Also the other point states that Aqalka sare shall he elected by mamuul goboleed. No way Fartaag and co will represent Marehan in Gedo without their permission. the Stooges in Kismayo must be breathing a sigh of relief

Kismaayo and most likely Dollow will be selected. Again in my view Madoobe is still in trouble here because unless he moves Kismaayo to Ras Kambooni which is impossible, he again over played his hand of decks here. The assumption here is that each side will manipulate the MP selection in their strong hold to their favor and in this scenario, it is a concluded fact for Gedo selection will favor Farmaajo 100%. Kismaayo selection will favor madoobe up to a point and even so, it’s very likely some of them will flip and change allegiance to the government by not only being paid but also the assumption madoobe will be out of power during the next government. This is exactly why I seriously believe Madoobe will be flipped by the government and ditch Puntland. If I was going to to bet by the time election arrives Puntland and Hiirshabeele officially will be on one side while Jubaland will be in the pockets of the government. Officially Galmudug will Pro government but in reality it will have a divided house. What’s left is Somaliland and Southwest. Somaliland aka the Isaaq will vote government by a slim margin. The deciding factor is Southwest where Digil and Mirifle will vote on opposite sides mostly and not necessarily for clan reasons but economic,cultural powe struggle within them and many other factors.

[SultanOrder]

No wonder your regions didn't score the top students. The task awaiting Somalia is daunting if your understanding of Somalia's ongoing state formation through this simple and predictable process playing out is this challenging to understand.

voltage what does this mean for Gedo? the 6th qodob says only two cities shall voting take place. Also the other point states that Aqalka sare shall he elected by mamuul goboleed. No way Fartaag and co will represent Marehan in Gedo without their permission. the Stooges in Kismayo must be breathing a sigh of relief

Kismaayo and most likely Dollow will be selected. Again in my view Madoobe is still in trouble here because unless he moves Kismaayo to Ras Kambooni which is impossible, he again over played his hand of decks here. The assumption here is that each side will manipulate the MP selection in their strong hold to their favor and in this scenario, it is a concluded fact for Gedo selection will favor Farmaajo 100%. Kismaayo selection will favor madoobe up to a point and even so, it’s very likely some of them will flip and change allegiance to the government by not only being paid but also the assumption madoobe will be out of power during the next government. This is exactly why I seriously believe Madoobe will be flipped by the government and ditch Puntland. If I was going to to bet by the time election arrives Puntland and Hiirshabeele officially will be on one side while Jubaland will be in the pockets of the government. Officially Galmudug will Pro government but in reality it will have a divided house. What’s left is Somaliland and Southwest. Somaliland aka the Isaaq will vote government by a slim margin. The deciding factor is Southwest where Digil and Mirifle will vote on opposite sides mostly and not necessarily for clan reasons but economic,cultural powe struggle within them and many other factors.

Somali politics is very sophisticated and can not just be looked at from a reer Hebel prospective. Interesting analysis.

[sahal80]

Osob

looks like you havent read the communique

it says two provincial capitals of each state like Jowhar and Baladweyne.

only senators will be elected in the regional parliament wich is based in state capitals.



this is better than Hassan sheikh era security wise for Galmudug abd Hirshabelle maybe bc these two have majured. we local forces now. i remember Damjadeed siyaasiyiin having their own soldiers and kicking out the rest!

[Osob101]

Sahalow

Forget communique iyo agreements, they don’t mean anything in Somali politics. Madoobe is adamant parliament should not have a say in approving the agreement reached which is not going to work because even the international players are who prefer the one man one vote will be seen as hypocrites. I’am telling you so far in this whole saga Madoobe seems to be the biggest looser and threatened and why I believe he will cut a deal with Farmaajo. Forget two provisional capitals and you can not compare the political structure of Hiirshabeel with Jubband. Galmudug and Jubbaland face a dilemma of where will be the second location.!

[Caytame]

^ NN fans never stop dreaming, only if they approached their personal goals and dreams with such conviction and mindset that refuses to compromise....

Ahmed madoobe checked farmaaajo in every way.
He said don't hold elections, Ahmed did.
he Sent his Ethiopian overlords to kismaayo, they couldn't even land.
He said I don't recognize you as Jland president, he bent the knee and recognized him.
He sent thousands of Ethiopian troops to Gedo, with Macalimu as an interpreter , and he lost yet again.
After all that, using state wealth, and SNA, and Ethiopia, farmaajo still lost.

But don't let me stop you from spinning it as a W tho . Ain't that what y'all been doing the last 10 years?


Madoobe marched to xamar, and got all his demands met, and he's still there, after so many threats of arrest, and even assassination plots coming from farmaajo's own ugaas of beesha sade.

Unless you can pull a miracle out of your asshole, and do in 3 months what you couldn't do in almost 4 years, marehan are finished after farmaajo.

[Murax]

^^Lmao at your sensitivity that you label anyone a N&N fan who says your Adeer’s future might not be paradise. This is why gender stereotypes are stupId. Osob101 gabar waays and conventional stereotypes would say she would be the emotional one not the analyst. Yet its the opposite its you and Sahal that pass off bitter qaraarnimo as analysis.



Sahal for having his Adeer Sanbaloshe fired, excluded by Abdiwali Sh, Farmaajo, not being in the xisaab for top positions under HG.


You because of being salty about your Daddy Madoobe.

[sahal80]

^^Lmao at your sensitivity that you label anyone a N&N fan who says your Adeer’s future might not be paradise. This is why gender stereotypes are stupId. Osob101 gabar waays and conventional stereotypes would say she would be the emotional one not the analyst. Yet its the opposite its you and Sahal that pass off bitter qaraarnimo as analysis.



Sahal for having his Adeer Sanbaloshe fired, excluded by Abdiwali Sh, Farmaajo, not being in the xisaab for top positions under HG.


You because of being salty about your Daddy Madoobe.

welcome back from hospital coma but atleast you sound good

[Osob101]

^^Lmao at your sensitivity that you label anyone a N&N fan who says your Adeer’s future might not be paradise. This is why gender stereotypes are stupId. Osob101 gabar waays and conventional stereotypes would say she would be the emotional one not the analyst. Yet its the opposite its you and Sahal that pass off bitter qaraarnimo as analysis.



Sahal for having his Adeer Sanbaloshe fired, excluded by Abdiwali Sh, Farmaajo, not being in the xisaab for top positions under HG.


You because of being salty about your Daddy Madoobe.

The conventional wisdom you referencing to is a narrative created by none men as such it can not be considered. History has proven again and again that men are more emotional and impulsive when it comes to reactions or making decisions.

Suaasho aniga aan qabo is when did I become a fan or Mr Cheese iyo his govenment.


Arooye Caytamo magaca Horta soo badaalo oo laa so bax mushunguli banu kakuma binto kukiyu al Fufu mise Habuusha bini Zanji Aga Aga Banu Amxaar ileen aniga Madoobe aad sheegeeso maba iis aaf naqaan.

[zidane88]

I'll drink that to shaah as long as Mooge don't come back and take back the country into civil war. I don't care whoever become president as long as this wannabe dictator is gone.

JL right now is like win win situation as Modabobe secured the fate of the two jubba. Jubada dhexe meesha waa laga saarey they will be elected in Kismaayo.
Damn! it looks like the judgement day! Mooge is losing his allies after Mursal joined it wich means no more ila meersysi iyo baarlamaan shit. waare and lafta gareen told him man this is your last chance to join it!
most FMS now want the 101 option 150 waaba soo dhaaftey. like i said guud ahaan heshiis waa la gaarey its in its final stages. laakin last time markii break la qaatey the FMS came back stronger and more united after having after having consulted with each other so now they want to change it from 150 to 101 and the speaker being part of the deal. Tanag mahdi Guuuled joined it as Gurmad after mursal jumped on the bandwagon kkkkk on more meeting to go.