WILL THE BAIDOA GOVT UNRAVEL?

[Af_libaax]

Galol


Ramadan Kariim , The ICU have made very Clear they will not attack Badao , Puntiland or Somaliland if only when the local People invited Them, mansha Alla some of those places the local People are already started slowly their repercussions and the ICU will be there to help them , the reality is most members of the Puppet gov't in Baidao , are realy don't have support their tribal costituents , the facts are the guys like Buubaa is there to make Money only . simply to make the story short Afbiijo and his crew Digil & Mirifle People will take care and the ICU will be there to help them .


, You will see soon after the ICU settle Mr Hirrale to choose the right bath Gedo will fall under Marehan Ulumo , and Bay & Bakool the inhabitabts are enough , about Ethiopia all the ICU need is to integrate and support the opposition rebels in Ethiopia , Maleza is dead man already .

,

[ABSAME']

[quote="Cilmiile"]Galool,

You may take a flutter on the courts, but dont bet the house.

Let me reassure you about one thing: The Courts will never take Gedo, Baydhabo, Puntland or Somaliland.

The question is can they consolidate their initial success and leverage it for bargaining on the national stage. But they are not interested in power sharing. They are not pragmatic and that is their downfall. They have very ambitious aims and that has brought them into conflict with powerful enemies.

- They have enraged an already alarmed Ethiopia by declaring that they would liberate Ogaadeeniya, instead of making soothing and reassuring noises.

-They have made enemies of Somaliland by making ridiculous statements about the internal affairs of Somaliland.

-Puntlanders remember the costly and bloody war with Itixaad where brothers were killing each brothers, Uncles were killing their nephews, Father and sons even. Kugu dhimay, kaa dhimay in other words. They have no desire to repeat that because they know the cost only too well, as well as the political and tribal motives of the Wadaad leadership.

They have made enemies of the powerfully armed Mareexaan.


The government has toned down their calls for foreign force intervention precisely because they are aware of its public relations drawbacks. Instead it is the Wadaads who have been trumpeting their foreign supporters. There will be no need for Ethiopian troops once the government establishes itself militarily. That task was aided by the Kismaayo fiasco. there is a hardcore, diehard anti wadaad Segment of the population that comprises certain Abgaal( dont forget Geeddi is becoming even more powerful thatn CY), Mareexaans who are itching to regain the face they lost in the Kismaayo defeat, Veterans of the various Puntland wars. All of them determined, well drilled and armed to the teeth from an Ethiopia that is now fighting for its own life.[/quote]




The Next two months, we will see a whole different story and I predict Cilmiile's above statement to turn truth 80%. Great analysis saxib

[Niya]

Add to the equation a 3rd option, where there is a marriage of convenience between the TFG and the UIC. If UIC is politcally astute and wants to levarage their current popularity and gain international legitamacy, they will agree to power sharing with the TFG whose remaining manadate is less than 3 years. On the other hand, the TFG knows that power-sharing is their best option short of a war that brings foreign intervention, -----a political suicide for the TFG.

I am worried more about what will happen to Somalia after the TFG period is over. It seems we will be regressing to the 7th century way of life, considering the zeal of the wannabe talibans.