Great Analyses by a Somali military expert, regarding the situation
Conflict Enters New Phase
As government forces and African Union peacekeepers spread through Mogadishu to take over positions left empty by the abrupt departure of militant Islamist group al-Shabaab from its bases, thoughts are turning to whether the government will be able to hold the city and what exactly the insurgents now have in mind.
Pockets of fighters have been left behind in districts such as Daynile and Yaaqshid, apparently hiding in private homes, to harass the advancing pro-government forces. However, essentially Mogadishu is now in the full control of the government for the first time since the insurgency began in early 2007, following Ethiopia’s invasion to oust the Islamic Courts Union.
While al-Shabaab called the swift and well-organized pull-out a “tactical decision”, there is no doubt that leaving Mogadishu is a major blow to the insurgents and a shot in the arm for a government that has long been seen as incapable of governing.
Following Ethiopia's invasion to oust the Islamic Courts Union in late 2006, al-Shabaab launched its insurgency and the capital was quickly transformed into a battleground divided between the two sides. The government was penned in to a small area of control, protected by the AU peacekeepers. However, this year had seen real progress as government and AU forces chipped away at al-Shabaab positions.
Despite the spin about a tactical retreat, the exodus from Mogadishu will be seen as a sure sign that the dire predictions about the state of al-Shabaab’s finances, morale and fighting capability were in fact true. Only last week the insurgents promised a massive offensive, saying they had sent up to 2,000 new troops to Mogadishu. They showed early signs of living up to their promise of a Ramadan offensive, carrying out attacks on the AU and government targets before the collapse. Yet the strain of being under pressure in Mogadishu and border regions since the start of the year, internal divisions and lost popularity due to its strict interpretation of Islamic law and refusal to allow western aid agencies into drought-hit regions appears to have sparked the withdrawal.
New tactics
However, al-Shabaab still controls much of the rest of southern Somalia, and if its tactics in the border regions are anything to go by, its fighters will launch regular suicide blasts and counter-attacks, and increase the use of IEDs in Mogadishu – a promise made by spokesman Sheikh Ali Mohamud Rage on Saturday.
Already there have been several incidents of al-Shabaab fighters appearing from nowhere to attack the pro-government forces cautiously advancing into the vacated areas, and if this process increases, many feel it could spell bad news for the residents of Mogadishu.
“Urban guerrilla warfare is more complicated, with vast casualties, as attackers could immediately melt into the residents just by changing uniform,” Ahmed Osman, a military expert in Mogadishu told Somalia Report. “If people deny them access and have collaboration with security forces their tactic will fail, but if not, it will be disastrous.”
Government response key
Winning over the local population with strong security and good governance will be key for the Transitional Federal Government to hold onto the capital, a host of officials, former fighters and residents say.
“Al-Shabaab has not been routed: they have their weapons and fighters and may have a chance to rule Mogadishu again if the government does not come in with wisdom by maintaining security,” Farhan Nur Ali, a former insurgent commander, told Somalia Report.
Analysts say the biggest challenge comes from internal sources. Poorly disciplined government forces have been accused of malpractices like robbery, killing and other human rights violations.
Ahmed Mohamed Hassan, a political analyst, told Somalia Report the government will find it difficult to hold new territories due to the chaotic nature of its forces.
“Government forces are not well structured and we usually see soldiers dressed casually in the streets, sometimes terrorizing the people by pointing guns at them or even killing them,” he said. “As long as they are in that situation, I doubt they can win people’s support.”
“The government does not have a unified national army – it has soldiers who are loyal to former warlords and individual government members and this has to change if it really wants to hold captured territories," he added.
Two perfect examples of such accusations came just one day before al-Shabaab pulled out, when militia loyal to two different government figures clashed, killing four civilians in the crossfire, and government troops killed seven internally displaced as they looted humanitarian aid.
Many civilians are fearful of what may come next, as despite the many cruelties of al-Shabaab, those who lived in areas under insurgent control were given clear laws to live by and many saw there was far less lawlessness due to the ruthless punishments.
“Al-Shabaab are good because the areas they control are much more peaceful, but government soldiers open fire randomly,” said university student Salma Hassan. “Look, what they (the government) did at the camp for displaced people in Mogadishu: they gave people bullets rather than food.”
Paddy Ankunda, spokesman for the AU peacekeeping mission (known as AMISOM), acknowledged that the government had much work to win the trust and support of civilians who could help al-Shabaab cause misery in the capital with suicide bombs and ambushes
“If the Somali government wants people’s support, it has to provide sustainable social services like education and healthcare and it must also address issue of freedom and restore law and order,” he told Somalia Report.
Vows to bring troops in line
Somali president Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, speaking in the wake of the incident at the camp, vowed to stamp out such practices.
“We have two enemies: al-Shabaab and those within government who kill and rob people,” he said. “Let’s be clear: the punishment for those can be harsh or even execution.”
On Monday, three soldiers were sentenced to death by a military court for looting in Bakara Market, but it remains to be seen exactly how possible it will be to bring the collection of militias into line, and there is skepticism in many quarters.
Hassan Sheikh, the chairman of the Peace and Development Party, told Somalia Report that considering government performances in the past, there is a slim chance the current administration, which has hardly proven itself capable of maintaining a united stance given the constant infighting, will manage the situation in a positive way.
“Given past experiences, I think the Somali government cannot use the opportunity to its advantage,” he said. “The government must be a system, not individuals with vested interests. The soldiers are simply acting as killing machines rather than defenders of the people.”
The future of al-Shabaab
The departure of al-Shabaab from Mogadishu will give encouragement to the pro-government forces, and certainly sends a message that the insurgents may not be the force they once were. But it is not yet clear how adversely the group will be affected, and several factors are in the mix.
Many see a split between Sheikh Mukhtar Robow (Abu Mansour) and leader Ahmed Godane over the lifting of a ban on western aid agencies during the current famine as key to not just the withdrawal but the future efficiency of an organization that has never been particularly cohesive.
Robow’s home areas have been hit fiercely by the drought, and he has been an advocate of getting help in – a stance opposed by other leaders. It was Robow’s stronghold Baidoa that saw one of the first aid deliveries after the famine announcement when UNICEF dropped in tons of emergency supplies.
“It is believed that Abu Mansour and Ahmed Godane, the leader of al-Shabaab, disagree on lifting the ban on aid agencies,” Abdikadir Abikar, an elder and a source close to al-Shabaab, told Somalia Report.
Robow and other clan leaders established an alliance against Godane, and pulled their forces out of Mogadishu, a lawmaker told Somalia Report on condition of anonymity. Godane, with the full support of the contingent of foreign fighters, rejected the move. The fighters that have been left behind in Mogadishu are believed to be mainly from Hawiye sub clans.
The full extent of the split, or whether this is just rumor, is yet to be confirmed – although residents of Baidoa told Somalia Report that the city was being flooded with Robow’s men returning from Mogadishu. If Robow and his allies refuse to back Godane, or even refuse to fight at all, then al-Shabaab will be significantly weakened.
Also, the insurgent group will be hit in the pocket by abandoning Mogadishu. Bakara Market – at least until traders began leaving it this year – was one of the group’s top earners through taxation and extortion of businesses. This revenue stream from Bakara and other markets has now dried up, leaving al-Shabaab increasingly reliant on port taxes from Kismayo and Marka, and charcoal exports to Gulf states.
For an organization that was already struggling to fund its insurgency, this loss of revenue could be a major problem. However, given that an insane amount of ordnance was expended in Mogadishu each day with little gain for the insurgents, there is the counter-argument that they will now be in a better position – and others see this as a key reason for the withdrawal.
The insurgents left with few casualties and – any worries over splits aside – can now concentrate their forces and weaponry on defending their territory in south and central Somalia. In particular, pro-government forces in the border regions will likely find much stiffer resistance to their operations, which have seen them gain ground this year.
In short, al-Shabaab’s decision to leave Mogadishu does not necessarily signal the beginning of the end to the conflict. If anything, Somalia could enter a period of even greater stalemate. The consequences will only become clear in the weeks to come.
