Somaliweyn your analysis requires me to delve more intimately then I can afford at this exact time but I will say I agree witht he skeleton of your analysis and your overall description of the situation.
However this is where we differ (and I will make sure to explain myself in detail later tomorrow)..the thing is I do not believe Hawiye is the unitary group you make it out to be. Despite there is this popular onslought against Majeerteen as being seen as the face of the TFG but in my experience and I daresay the experience in general is that the most hardcore supporters of the TFG are Hawiye and the most hardcore opposition of the TFG are Hawiye.
Nothing signifies that more than Gacmadheere, a Saleebaan, representing the TFG to the opposition "Odayaasha Hawiye" led by Axmed Diiriye, another Saleebaan! Or Axmed Cabdisalaan, a Cayr, now traveling with Abdullahi Yusuf to represent the TFG while opposing the Asmara-based wing of the Alliance led by Hassan Dahir Aweys and Indhacade, both Cayr! Or Nuur Cade representing the TFG to Asmara facing opposite of the Djbouti-based wing of the Alliance led by Sheikh Sharif SHeikh Ahmed, an Abgaal!
Nowhere in the make-up of even of Somalia's perverse clan oriented affairs is such confusion, disunity, and very apparent
discord apparent in a singular entity and even its seperate wings then the Hawiye as a people.
Everyday you will read the Al Shabaab Abgaal section took over Jowhar or Balcad killing a dozen or so Abgaal TFG troops only to leave and come back next week doing the same thing.
I am afraid Hawiye is not close to what you make it out to be and in my final analysis I cannot help but disagree with you and stick to the point that that clan, out of all of Somalia's groupings, will continue to be the source of problematic anti-state initiatives which we can all agree will continue to bode significantly on the over-all lack of Somali statehood because this clan occupies major part of the national capital and surrounding countryside!
Mareexaan is different in this regard. This clan as you rightfully pointed out when through significant stages to get to their point and I think in all fairness they are now a few steps behind the ladder of organization and effective governance that Somaliland and Puntland enjoy because the Mareexaan have really had to organize and come to appreciate the benefits of law and order in order to move beyond the situation they found themselves in most of the 90's and early twenty first century.
Gedo certainly has proven this case right. How else could these pictures have come out of it?
Gubarnatorial Elections in Gedo, first democratic vote in all of Somalia excluding Somaliland and Puntland for the last 20 years
Baardheere District elections
Regional Legislative Body being set up in state capital Garbahareey
However, culture might also have something to do with this. Though I had before included all south of Baraxleey into one corner, still there are grades within that camp and I do not believe i am being biased when I say even in the thickest of the civil war, Mareexaan as a clan was above the Hawiye in the aspects graded upon and respected for in the North simply because of the cultural difference were Mareexaan, like the northern counter-parts in Somaliland and Puntland have strong Guurti or odayaal presence and Hawiye unfortunately does not. Guurti is in itself a significant part of Somali governance and this is something that seems to have escaped Hawiye until recently although the Hawiye Guurti still is a tituler, singler subject and not a an entity based in alliance with other key decision-makers such as business people, militia leaders, etc.
Even in the thickest parts of the civil war, objective Western analysts were writing.
3.11. Gedo region
In the Gedo region, clan elders enjoy greater respect and authority than in many other parts of
southern Somalia. Hence, politically speaking, there is a relatively well-run administration at
district level. The region's local authorities thus cooperate closely with local clan elders, business
people and the SNF. All districts have district councils, most of them appointed by the SNF. Some
districts have also, with the assistance of the UN Somalia Rehabilitation Project (UNOPS), set up
development management groups (DMGs) to help run local development projects
According to Ken Menkhaus, there can found, in some of the region's districts, commitment and
authority comparable to those met with in north-eastern and north-western Somalia.
4.2.3. Marehan clans' ugaas
Kenneth Menkhaus explained that Ugaas Omar Ugaas Hirsi represented all Marehan subclans and
was unchallenged by any clan factions within the Marehan clan. He described the role of the ugaas
in the reconciliation process as "crucial". The ugaas was a kind of king of the Marehan clans in the
Gedo region, enjoying the utmost authority among Gedo's Marehan clans.
Barry Sesnan, Area Manager (Gedo region) for the UNOPS/SRP, reported that the ugaas was
indisputably an authority, adding nevertheless that young Marehan in particular often doubted his
intellectual capacity as well as questioning the guidance given him. Despite this, non-one denied
his authority and everyone responded to a summons from the ugaas.
This was confirmed by the District Commissioner of Luuq, Mohamed Mohamud Aden, who added
that he was backed up by the chiefs, described as "peace lords", leading the Marehan subclans."
"4.2.4. Political leadership
Overall political leadership of the Gedo region is exercised by the SNF Central Committee, which
has set up an Executive Committee, also known as the Standing Committee, for that purpose. Its
leadership embraces the Marehan-dominated part of the Galgaduud region in eastern Somalia as
well.
The SNF, according to Mohamed Mohamud Aden, was a Marehan-based political front. However,
both Andrew Fitzgibbon and Abdishakur Othowai pointed out that non-Marehan clans could also
join the SNF, which was considered fully in control of the Gedo region. The SNF's top body was
its Congress, headed by the SNF's Chairman, Omar Hagi, with the Chairman and Deputy Chairman
of the SNF being appointed by its Congress.""
Still, south of Baraxleey whether in Gedo or Xamar or Bay or Hiiraan or Shabelleda Dhexe have had the same collective experience and one that we both agree is the result of a power-vacuum that formed after the Siyaad government in which there was not a collective hardship that either of the groups could really look back to that would have made them see above their differences and organize into an affective socio-politico group(s).
Zoomalis and their propganda. RIP.
This is just one glimpse of whats happening out there in real life.