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Somalis are like kids , so with kids you have to sometimes sit back till they're done with their childish behavior

Magnusomalius wrote:Somalis are like kids , so with kids you have to sometimes sit back till they're done with their childish behavior

Were they ever really serious? I think that is the real question. Lets be honest, no one is fighting over themselves to dig in Somalia atm. When a small company comes in, I think we should have our suspicions. Also, there is no imperative to dig in Somalia, just yet.

Anyone look at Genel stock from February of this year to now it has gone up 4 dollars. I remember reading an article saying that new CEO Tony Hayward (guy who got fired because of the rig that blew up near Louisiana debacle), and going to search for oil in a somewhat stable region in a oil hot spot region was a clever marketing technique to generate some income. I don't know how strong this argument is.

they did spend more than $10 million though..
i know because some of that trickled down to some subcontracts that we got.
alxamdullilah we insisted on upfront payment and covered all expenditure and more , other people have lost all their money,
the sad thing is that hundred of locals lost their employment.

you dont blow that much money unless you were serious,
i wonder what political games are being played.

10 million is not a lot of money for oil exploration, plus they were planning to spend 400 million from 2012-15 on digging five wells in Africa. If you look at their stock from December of 2012- Now, it has gone up from 730 GBp to as high as 1000 in August and 939 per share now. Besides, it's not like the are cash strapped.

But, if it isn't because of security, and it isn't because they never intended in the first place, than it is something else. Politically what could they gain, what leverage from the SL government?

10 mill isnt allot of money in the scheme of things, but another 10 mill minimum would have wrapped up the siesmic survey.
then come exploratory digging.
It all depends on how deep the wells are, some are deep, others close to the ground, some oil wells in texas for example are shallow and you have family run oil companies of less than 30 people and a couple of wells producing a few thousand barrels per day.
Some of these wildcater drills are as cheap as a few hundred thousand,
the drilling equipment used in the puntland drills cost about $5mill .

The main expenditure is not in the exploration phase, its in the production phase,
you will need bigger drilling equipment and pipelines , roads and other infrastructure. Billions of dollars.
In the first phases you can get away with spending less than $20 million if you are lucky and hit a well early.

If security was such a big issue, why didn't they go the route of Jacka Resources and hire private firms to protect them? I don't know man, something is fishy, and there is a bigger game being played. Genel is not a small company that short on cash. If they have the will they will find the way, especially if the prospects is as good as potentially 1 billion barrels of oil, extracting 1-2% of that is more than enough to cover all the costs to find it and extract it.They also have leases to some blocks in Kilinka as well.

Personally I think Southern Somalia is going to get real attention as soon as the situation cools down in the slightest way.

UK govt told Genel to pack up and leave. Of course Genel will comply because otherwise they lose their niceties and tax breaks. UK govt is doing this to punish the Silaanyo administration for not coming to the conferences and being uncooperative with the SFG

This has nothing to do with the clans. Its all politics. Nothing else

I am,

Abdi "Anything Other Suggestion is Horseshit" Johnson

AbdiJohnson wrote:UK govt told Genel to pack up and leave. Of course Genel will comply because otherwise they lose their niceties and tax breaks. UK govt is doing this to punish the Silaanyo administration for not coming to the conferences and being uncooperative with the SFG

This has nothing to do with the clans. Its all politics. Nothing else

I am,

Abdi "Anything Other Suggestion is Horseshit" Johnson

I always enjoy your anlysis sxb. Shell has endured kidnapping in Nigeria's oil delta, where activists and thugs frequently target oil companies with sabotage. You are right Genel left because of they got order from exterior.

but this kind of pressure will not work.
I think the UK saw how useless the silanyo government is, and they dealt with characters like xirsi gaab,
and they concluded that some pressure will make them fold and do as they are told.
The reality is that the majority of the classes in somaliland throughout all the qabiils, those that rise to the top have been the most corrupt and incompetent.
They will sellout to xamar instantly if the price was right, the price has to be high enough to surmount the public's desires.
The UK doesnt understand that siilanyos government really badly wants to sell out and but are afraid of the public.
To help them out you need to have a devious policy to blindsight and mislead the nation but this require an addition of massive bribes
by somali standards. $200 million should be enough i think.

Applying pressure will not not work and force the government to bunker down and behave patriotically.
The arab embargo on livestock cost somaliland nearly $3 billion dollars over 10 years and stifling of economic growth and recovery.
They need to do far better than that and since Somaliland has the image of the good boy in the nieghbourhood it is difficult to make them look like the villain to justify such measures.

LeJusticier wrote:

AbdiJohnson wrote:UK govt told Genel to pack up and leave. Of course Genel will comply because otherwise they lose their niceties and tax breaks. UK govt is doing this to punish the Silaanyo administration for not coming to the conferences and being uncooperative with the SFG

This has nothing to do with the clans. Its all politics. Nothing else

I am,

Abdi "Anything Other Suggestion is Horseshit" Johnson

I always enjoy your anlysis sxb. Shell has endured kidnapping in Nigeria's oil delta, where activists and thugs frequently target oil companies with sabotage. You are right Genel left because of they got order from exterior.

There is a WSJ article where Genel claim they left because of security reasons,
I think this is more plausable

LeJusticier wrote:

rich-boy wrote:why they asking reer hargeysa they should ask reer burco i bet they answer will be different

reer Burco waa bilaa akhlaaq including daayeer muuse.

Lool why would you said that we are civilized in our on way but i liked when they asked that reer burco guy he said i was the one shooting at them lool waa liibax .

Any official updates on this issue. I'm hearing that genel is still in somaliland and theyll continue the the oil project...