somaliforums wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2020 4:51 am
Three Scenarios
1. If he appears in Kismayo, the government had nothing to do with his escape (except: if NISA is using him as spy)
2. If he remains missing, he must have been killed by someone with motive we don’t know yet and the government is too embarrassed to admit it.
- Culprits: The opposition, Personal enemy, etc
3. If he remains missing but is spotted somewhere alive, then the government freed him but can not admit due to violating the law.
{You can’t arrest certain people and keep them locked for life and at the same time release similar people bcuz they fulfilled your agenda}
- Lossers: Jubaland & The Opposition
i personally think he is killed as to sow tribal wars in Gedo (once again Farmaajo doesnt bother to know what the tribal security apparatus are upto)
The policy of the opposition has always been to undermine jubaland and their starting point is Gedo.
Madoobe policy has always been to unite the ogadeen against marexaan and activity divide the people of gedo on sub clan levels.
Janan has powerful islamist enemies in mogadishu
The escape story is to hide the truth, people read snet thread about the release of janan and people took pre-emptive strike to sow seed of discord for variety of reasons.
No way would janan be quite this long if he had a deal with government or even arrived in kismaayo
nobody likes janan but his assassination would cause a earthquake in somalia
janan was CIA and ethiopian intelligence man in doolow, his rise from petty warlord to one of the most prominent politician in jubaland has to do with his work with the americans, British and Ethiopian in the early days war against al shabab.
outside mogadishu the biggest base for foreign intelligence was in doolow
even the new Ethiopian regime didnt like his deep connection to TPLF agents, who would use doolow for illicit arms trafficking, the new ethiopian regime also didnt like ahmed madoobe and maxamud sayed due to their deep connections to TPLF bu OG politicians lobbied abiye to ignore madoobe for the sake of peace in Galbeed he agreed but was over ruled by the americans who have deep suspicion of madoobe and they set traps for him and his self election was their greatest oppertunity and they came down hard on him which got us this moment.
Janan was debriefed by foreign intelligence on the situation of kismaayo and was placed in a save house in mogadishu, his transfer to mogadishu had nothing to do with his killings in gedo, Ethiopians felt threatened by janan but they learned their lessons from qalbidagax case and send him to mogadishu instead of addis.
in the next 24 hours will be very important, if he is released then his powerfull friends agreed on his release, if he is dead, then Gedo faces though times and its engineered by some clannish politicians with their new allies in mogadishu using UAE trained forces and intelligence sleeper cells inherited from previous administrations under the command of abdirahman abdishakur and HSM.
the recent propaganda by OG politicians against marexaan has two strategies, play grievance politics while undermining marexaan position in jubaland and on federal level using hawiye politicians and majerteen for the sole purpose of maintaining their grip in kismaayo, they know the international community is fed up with madoobe.
madoobe biggest fear is the taking of buale, because that would create new election and the new jubaland president would appoint all the major positions in kismaayo meaning madoobe would then be reduced to a warlord that is occupying the city by force.
Janan is no joke