Abiy Ahmed PM of Ethiopia Has Fled from Addis

[Phinks]

Paper, you have to understand Afars, they're paranoid and prone to bouts of schizophrenia. One day it's Al-Shabab they're facing, the next Somali state forces from DDSI then it's the national army of Somalia.

[TarTar]

cagdeer ba u hanjabay ninka jabutawi is kushega. jawabtisi wahay noqotay idoor iyo boon ka calaacal

tallman, u already said i have uqdad againt cagdeer cause i count bashe19 as cagdeer. well now i might b thinking of adding jabutawi 2 my list of cagdeer ghosts dat every1 else think is anotha tribe

[BigBreak]

Ethiopia will never break apart officially. The West are against Somali Galbeed seceding

[paperino]

But, based on my long-term research on local and national politics in Ethiopia, this is where historical parallels between the current and past conflicts in Ethiopia end. A 1991 type of regime change at national level is unlikely, even if the Tigray Defence Forces and Oromo Liberation Army – which recently established the nine-member United Front of Ethiopian Federalist and Confederalist Forces – were to prevail militarily.

Prevailing political attitudes, security actors, alliances and geopolitics differ starkly from the final days of the hated Derg military regime. Five reasons in particular explain why 2021 is not 1991.

1. Abiy’s leadership is not deeply unpopular

When Tigray People’s Liberation Front forces entered Addis Ababa in May 1991 after 16 years of guerrilla warfare against one of Africa’s strongest armies, the Derg government was deeply unpopular. The same cannot be said about Abiy’s Prosperity Party. The party enjoys considerable support in Addis Ababa and parts of Amhara and Oromia regions. It is popular in major cities across the country and among parts of the Ethiopian diaspora.

The Tigrayan-led forces were welcomed as liberators three decades ago. But that’s unlikely to happen today. Many Ethiopians remember the pre-Abiy regime for its uncompromising authoritarian rule and broken promises to democratise Ethiopia.

Few believe that a reincarnated Tigray-led transitional government will solve the country’s deep seated political problems, in particular inter-ethnic animosities.

2. Proliferation of inter-communal conflicts

Today’s security environment is very different. The federal army has been considerably weakened after a year of war. The removal of senior Tigrayan commanders from the Ethiopian National Defence Forces after Abiy came to power is another factor. These commanders are now on the Tigray Defence Forces’ side.

The Ethiopian army’s ability to lead and coordinate operations has diminished while security forces operating under the command of regional states have strengthened. These ‘special forces’ of Amhara, Oromia, Afar and other regions – not the army – have shouldered much of the recent fighting against the Tigrayan and Oromo rebels.

In Amhara region in particular, thousands of local nationalists have joined the war against Tigrayan forces to reverse their gains. A proliferation of inter-communal conflicts across the country and a militarisation of Ethiopian society mean that, militarily speaking, neither the rebels nor the government are the only game in town.

3. Fragile alliances

The political alliances underpinning both Abiy’s government and the rebel coalition are fragile at best. The Amhara and Oromo wings of the ruling Prosperity Party are held together by their joint animosity towards Tigray. Inter-ethnic conflicts between Amhara and Oromo communities in both regional states has been a source of tension within the ruling party. Amhara nationalists feel increasingly let down by Abiy’s government and are likely to continue fighting against Tigrayans even in the unlikely event of a peace deal.

On the rebel side cooperation between Tigray and Oromo forces is based on an opportunistic calculus as well. Oromo nationalists were sidelined from political power during the early years of the previous regime, when the Tigray People’s Liberation Front was in power.

4. The Eritrean factor

When Tigray People’s Liberation Front forces entered the capital three decades ago, they were backed by the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front. This paved the way for the secession of Eritrea. Between 1998-2000 however, Ethiopia and Eritrea went to war driving a wedge between the Tigrayan and Eritrean leadership.

Abiy’s peace agreement with Eritrean president Isaias Afwerki, signed in 2018, turned out to be a military pact against their common enemy – the Tigray People’s Liberation Front. Eritrean defence forces invaded Tigray in the early days of the war, playing a crucial role in the government’s early battle wins.

What’s more, future relations between Tigray and Eritrea have the potential for long-term destabilisation in the northern parts of Ethiopia.

5. The Tigray question

Finally, Tigrayan elites are themselves divided over strategy. The options are between further decentralisation of the country or secession of Tigray in line with article 39 of the Ethiopian constitution. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front has long argued that self-determination within Ethiopia was in the best interest of Tigrayans. But the war and humanitarian crisis in Tigray have pushed many Tigrayans to rally behind calls for secession.

For the time being the main objective is to defeat Abiy’s government. The other is to liberate what they consider as Amhara-occupied territories in western Tigray, and to establish a national transitional government. But Tigray’s political future remains very much in the balance.
https://theconversation.com/ethiopias-c ... elf-172158

One year on, predictions of the fall of Abiy have failed. It's one thing to base your prediction on wishful thinking, another to be objective like the author of the article.

[Jabuutawi]

I neither claim to be a journalist nor an objective bystander. Heavens, why would I want to be objective about a war monger and a criminal like Abiy?! His support has been gradually eroding ever since he took power, or more precisely bestowed at the helm by TPLF-run government of Ethiopia.

He immediately disappointed Qeero Oromos, alienated non-vested TPLF Tigrays, blindly supported Afar police/militia from 3 countries and his own federal troops slaughtering my people.

Lest you are obfuscated about my stance, I want nothing less than the total destruction of Ethiopia. Anything short of that is a failure in my book. Only langaabs such as yourself (pasting an article I care not much for, nor have I read its entirety) worries about the unity of Ethiopia. Defend your own plot of land, that is if you have the manpower and wherewithal -- I suspect you have neither. Kindly step aside and let us unshackle you from Ethiopia's umbilical cord of discourse and destruction that is falsely peddled as development.

How's this for objectivity: Ethiopia must die.

[Jabuutawi]

Murtad Abiy has transferred power (for what it is worth) to his deputy PM. I suppose he is headed to the frontline to fight . That coward has no one ounce of raganimo and he wants to convince the world otherwise

[original dervish]

Jabutaawi........I don't see any organised Somali position in Ethiopia.

The time is now to organise a programme of secession.
It looks like the war will reach a stalemate between then northerners.

Somalis should be in a strong position but are weak and fragmented.q

[Jabuutawi]

Have you heard of Somali State Resistance? Ninka ba na hogaamin .

Have you also heard of ninka hooyadey gursada baa abti ii ah? That is Somali. Wada bakhti isku maqan baa nahay, while our enemies take advantage of us.

No way will the West allow the destruction of Addis or a genuine Muslim ruling Ethiopia. Already there are 100s of new US soldiers in Djibouti, ready in a moments notice, to save Christian Ethiopia.

[zidane88]

Abiye's frontline show of has the hallmark of Mengistu's one who did the same, only to run away later. Interesting days are ahead. watch the space!

[Jabuutawi]

TDF has made a strategic retreat from the Afar region. You'll find out why soon. And, no, the Afars did not 'defeat' the TDF. It is the drones from Turkey and few Eritrean battalions doing the heavy lifting.

Don't be fooled by Abiyot and his cohorts claiming that they have retaken Chifra and other towns in western Afar region. If that is the case, I have one question for Abiyot: where are the dead TDF soldiers and/or POWs?

[Waachis]

So will the ciise clan form a political party and join TDF or?

[paperino]

It's prudent not to base your expectations on wishful thinkings. It's obvious the OP & others hoping for the demise of Ethiopia are emotional & not objective, hence misreading what's going on and rushing to wrong observations, conclusions, proclamations, etc.

[Jabuutawi]

Nothing emotional said, but analyzing the situation in Ethiopia. Instead of copying and pasting articles from other sources, why not give your analysis and eventual outcome of the civil war in Ethiopia to the best of your knowledge.

That said, latest news:

36 Hours ago, OLA descended from Mt. Miti in Jinacsi town and came around Dir Dhabe's back. They met some Ciise and Harti nomads and asked for water and food. They also asked which direction is to Djibouti. Their ultimate goal is to capture the railroad to Djibouti and the new highway. Word got out, and the police/army in DD, mostly Amhara but some Oromos, rushed to the area. Needless to say, they were decimated - killed, captured and others scattered away. Militia based in Sitti ( I did not know it existed) and Somali Liyu rushed to the area as well. When OLA realized they bit more than they could chew, withdrew back to the mountains and headed to Oromia.

Head butting is eventual between Somalis and Oromos if this continues. I hope it does not come to this and the OLA realizes that they are treading in dangerous waters - this is Somali land.

OLA needs to direct its aggression towards Amahras that have subjugated their people for 500 years or more, and take revenge for their Karrayu and Wollo clans that were massacred by the Afars. The Afars murdered the Ugas of the Karrayu and his entire council last week. Killed, raped, looted and burned mosques in Wollo province.

TDF did NOT surrender. How can one say they surrendered when they still hold land from Amhara and Afar region? They withdrew on their own accord after Turkey, Iran, UAE and China backed Addis government. Tigrays hold their destiny in their own hands. I do not see Tigrays taking orders from Addis ever again, period. They will negotiate some sort of terms for their self-rule within Tigray. Rageedi! A mere 5 million people brought the whole of Ethiopia to its knees. Those midget guys got something to be proud of.

Expect Cooperative Federalism in Ethiopia. A weak central government in Addis with the states/provinces playing major roles in their respective destinies.

[BigBreak]

Abiy is an evil guy for his barbaric assault on Tigrayans however Ethiopia must be an indivisible single country that has one central government that exerts supreme power over every square mile of territory across the whole of Ethiopia.

Ethiopia Tikdem

[Waachis]

Nothing emotional said, but analyzing the situation in Ethiopia. Instead of copying and pasting articles from other sources, why not give your analysis and eventual outcome of the civil war in Ethiopia to the best of your knowledge.

That said, latest news:

36 Hours ago, OLA descended from Mt. Miti in Jinacsi town and came around Dir Dhabe's back. They met some Ciise and Harti nomads and asked for water and food. They also asked which direction is to Djibouti. Their ultimate goal is to capture the railroad to Djibouti and the new highway. Word got out, and the police/army in DD, mostly Amhara but some Oromos, rushed to the area. Needless to say, they were decimated - killed, captured and others scattered away. Militia based in Sitti ( I did not know it existed) and Somali Liyu rushed to the area as well. When OLA realized they bit more than they could chew, withdrew back to the mountains and headed to Oromia.

Head butting is eventual between Somalis and Oromos if this continues. I hope it does not come to this and the OLA realizes that they are treading in dangerous waters - this is Somali land.

OLA needs to direct its aggression towards Amahras that have subjugated their people for 500 years or more, and take revenge for their Karrayu and Wollo clans that were massacred by the Afars. The Afars murdered the Ugas of the Karrayu and his entire council last week. Killed, raped, looted and burned mosques in Wollo province.

TDF did NOT surrender. How can one say they surrendered when they still hold land from Amhara and Afar region? They withdrew on their own accord after Turkey, Iran, UAE and China backed Addis government. Tigrays hold their destiny in their own hands. I do not see Tigrays taking orders from Addis ever again, period. They will negotiate some sort of terms for their self-rule within Tigray. Rageedi! A mere 5 million people brought the whole of Ethiopia to its knees. Those midget guys got something to be proud of.

Expect Cooperative Federalism in Ethiopia. A weak central government in Addis with the states/provinces playing major roles in their respective destinies.

Are you sure about the OLA news? OLA is focused on consolidating its control over the large rural areas it controls now-in Borana, in Guji and Wallaga, and now, it even began operations in Jimma [Abiy's hometown], and Bale/Arsi areas.
If what you said is true, it could be they want to weaken the regimes economic power, and also, try to get weapons from a ''generous'' world power stationed in Djibouti?! Or?!
I do agree though, we have no problems with Somali's nor do we seek any. If anything, we need Somali cooperation, or at the very least, to remain neutral. Afar cannot fight Oromo, on Oromo land, the Oromo always gain the upperhand in places like Bati where the 3 major groups meet-Oromo, Amhara, Afar... and I do not agree with Oromo going to Afar turf either, to fight.