Somalia: State of the Nation 1 January, 2010

[FAH1223]

The common age for the ProShababis are under 25. The young are easily fooled and swayed to support revolution because they believe they can actually change the world

Well, they're fed up with isbaaro, you can't blame them for wanting better.

[GENERAL_SNM]

We dont have any plans to be part of somalia, what makes you think we want to be part of ethiopia?

As for choosing between some seriously messed up misguided souls called al-shabab, and the career criminal warlords, I think Al-Shabab and their medieval methods are better. Because the criminals dont ever plan to go paradise so have no intention of ever doing good, but Al-Shabab's goals are to go paradise so they have to score high on the good points..

I see even Somaliland is pro-Shabaab.

The warlords are criminals. In any country they would be locked up but Al-Shabab are misguided young lads who assume what they are doing is right. The result might be negative but the intention is positive, but the warlords, their whole game plan starts and finishes negative. They dont even understand the concept of right and wrong everything is right to them, even when its wrong.


Twisted, Riyole You must be kidding. How can you class him as a warlord he has absolutely no power to be able to take a life. Riyole could not is not able to wield a life or death scenario and control people through fear and terror, which is what those warlords have been doing to the innocent victims of xamer.

[Voltage]

Which takes back to our initial argument between me and AW252, what constitutes as warlordism? It is true that some warlords were nastier than others, but who determines what is nasty and what is not? Personally, the warlords in Somalia were all gang-leaders, it just happens that Mogaishu-based warlords were more destructive because the city offered many incentives for successful exploitation. This however, doesn't make them any worse than other warlords in the country.

The culture of warlordism was not specific to Mogadishu. If you think I am picking you out as Hawiye, you need to go and read the topic I started in the Gedo section just couple days ago.

http://somalinet.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=26&t=221170

[Shirib]

Shirib, the groups resisting the Al Shabaab/Xisbul Islam are

1. TFG
--1. TFG-professionals
--2. TFG-warlords
--3. TFG-secularists
--4. TFG-traditionalists
--5. TFG-4.5 clan ambitions
2. Ahlu Sunnah
3. Independent warlords
--1. Their clan supporters who could have diametrically opposed strategic objectives.
4. Somali civil society
--1. Clan elders who can be vehicle for warlords
--2. Some anti-warlord groups
--3. Women's groups who can be opposed by traditionalists

et cetc etc

As you said, for the present, there is NO VIABLE ALTERNATIVE because there is nothing that unites those groups and more other than resisting the Al Shabaab/Xisbul Islam. What political future for Somalia can Shiekh Sharif who is still an akhwan by ideology, an Ahlu Sunnah man, a warlord, a clan elder, and Somali woman's activist agree to?

When someone brings forward a viable alternative that has positive implications for the people (in the sense the peace and security they now have is uninterrupted) then one should start contemplating physically resisting Al Shabaab. But what is there to fight for now, the past and 19 years of lawlessness and anarchy?

Saaxib thats exactly my point. The minute Somali's get together and create a viable solution, Al Shabaab will be defeated as swiftly as they came.

But as long as the alternative is the anarchy that the people had lived in for the previous 16 years before Shabaab, they will continue to run the show.

[AbdiWahab252]

FAH,

I was a young once too saxiib. I was fed up of the humiliation, corruption, nepotism, government isbaaros (from the Somali Commercial Bank, to the airports, to the Ministries, ports, Afgoye Control), political prisoners, and finally the slaughtering of the innocents by the military regime. Therefore I supported Revolution at all costs to remove the dictator, first with SNM then USC

[Twisted_Logic]

Shirib, the groups resisting the Al Shabaab/Xisbul Islam are

1. TFG
--1. TFG-professionals
--2. TFG-warlords
--3. TFG-secularists
--4. TFG-traditionalists
--5. TFG-4.5 clan ambitions
2. Ahlu Sunnah
3. Independent warlords
--1. Their clan supporters who could have diametrically opposed strategic objectives.
4. Somali civil society
--1. Clan elders who can be vehicle for warlords
--2. Some anti-warlord groups
--3. Women's groups who can be opposed by traditionalists

et cetc etc

As you said, for the present, there is NO VIABLE ALTERNATIVE because there is nothing that unites those groups and more other than resisting the Al Shabaab/Xisbul Islam. What political future for Somalia can Shiekh Sharif who is still an akhwan by ideology, an Ahlu Sunnah man, a warlord, a clan elder, and Somali woman's activist agree to?

When someone brings forward a viable alternative that has positive implications for the people (in the sense the peace and security they now have is uninterrupted) then one should start contemplating physically resisting Al Shabaab. But what is there to fight for now, the past and 19 years of lawlessness and anarchy?

But don't you think that a frame-work/roadmap needs to be created before there is an alternative to the current impasse? How does the lack of a "viable alternative" excuse or negate the inherent criminal and dangerous nature of Al Shabab?

AL Shabab needs to be defeated, no matter what

Shirib,

In the meantime, Somali should just shut up and accept the hegemonic ambitions of these nihilist and hand the reigns of the entire country to wanted international gang-leaders?

Very naive and confused to say the least

[FAH1223]

FAH,

I was a young once too saxiib. I was fed up of the humiliation, corruption, nepotism, government isbaaros (from the Somali Commercial Bank, to the airports, to the Ministries, ports, Afgoye Control), political prisoners, and finally the slaughtering of the innocents by the military regime. Therefore I supported Revolution at all costs to remove the dictator, first with SNM then USC

you were in America and East African countries in the 80s

[AbdiWahab252]

FAH,

Assuming I was, what does that have to do with anything ? You are in the US and state Shabab is the solution.

[FAH1223]

FAH,

Assuming I was, what does that have to do with anything ? You are in the US and state Shabab is the solution.

This is different. What you supported ultimately brought anarchy even though a a corrupt regime was finally laid to rest. There was nothing better other than businessman having a free market economy.

Now, we have teenagers who are the only source of centralized law and order because of the collapse of those movements you supported. They are the product of the failed state, the failed society, and the religion of Islam which came to bring order to lives is now looked to restore it. Nothing wrong with it, their application and their recklessness is what makes them dangerous.

But atleast, they have a wider mass appeal to have a unified political front in Somalia which the country has NEVER had.

BTW, you make it out as if you were on the front lines as a USC soldier...get outta here negro

you quoted a man saying that those who have been thru war dont dwell on it too much rather than those who haven't....

[Twisted_Logic]

Which takes back to our initial argument between me and AW252, what constitutes as warlordism? It is true that some warlords were nastier than others, but who determines what is nasty and what is not? Personally, the warlords in Somalia were all gang-leaders, it just happens that Mogaishu-based warlords were more destructive because the city offered many incentives for successful exploitation. This however, doesn't make them any worse than other warlords in the country.

The culture of warlordism was not specific to Mogadishu. If you think I am picking you out as Hawiye, you need to go and read the topic I started in the Gedo section just couple days ago.

http://somalinet.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=26&t=221170

Ahhh. The leatle games he plays

You want to paint an irrelevant endorsement of Al Shabab's crimes in Gedo and silencing of critics as an achievement because there is "peace." People are scared to even speak out, young boys are forcefully sent away to fight in battles that they don't even belief, mosques are being burned down because they " wrong belong to the sect," and young girls are forcefully wed away to produce "future mujahiduun."

You see this as an accomplishment. I would pity you if I didn't think that it was a fake attempt of objectivity.

[GENERAL_SNM]

Horta anybody that doesn't sing from America's hymn sheet is classed as an international pariah, so America not liking Al-Shabab is not necessarily a bad thing it just means they put their own interest ahead of Americas. So I dont agree with judging Al-Shabab by the standards set by the west because those are standards set to serve their own interest. The only people who would be acceptable to American in somalia would be a puppet regime to do their bidding even if it goes against our national interest.

[Ghazi]

I can say with absolute sincerity those who support America come from langaab qabil's and as they say, inferiority complexes eventually foster hate.

[Twisted_Logic]

FAH,

Assuming I was, what does that have to do with anything ? You are in the US and state Shabab is the solution.

This is different. What you supported ultimately brought anarchy even though a a corrupt regime was finally laid to rest. There was nothing better other than businessman having a free market economy.

Now, we have teenagers who are the only source of centralized law and order because of the collapse of those movements you supported. They are the product of the failed state, the failed society, and the religion of Islam which came to bring order to lives is now looked to restore it. Nothing wrong with it, their application and their recklessness is what makes them dangerous.

But atleast, they have a wider mass appeal to have a unified political front in Somalia which the country has NEVER had.

BTW, you make it out as if you were on the front lines as a USC soldier...get outta here negro

you quoted a man saying that those who have been thru war dont dwell on it too much rather than those who haven't....

What a poor child

[Shirib]

TL,

No one in Qoriyooleey will say no to Shabaab when the likes of Indhacadde is stairing them in the face, infact its the likes of Indhacadde that the boys in Qoriyooleey are joining Shabaab to begin with.

When a viable solution is found Shabaab will be defeated as swiftly as they came, in the meantime find that viable solution.

[Voltage]

But don't you think that a frame-work/roadmap needs to be created before there is an alternative to the current impasse? How does the lack of a "viable alternative" excuse or negate the inherent criminal and dangerous nature of Al Shabab?

Al Shabaab does not have the capacity and capability to true be "dangerous" at this moment. They do not have the strength to take over Mogadishu, they do not have the strength to bypass Ahlu Sunnah in the central areas, they cannot risk the chance of ever moving into the international sphere by infiltrating their elements into the neighboring states to do anything counter-productive.

Al Shabaab/Xisbul Islam are actually in an impasse right now and an entity in impasse is an entity that does not have the capability to be completely active.

Now while this impasse is going on, the people live in an environment where peace and security reigns. For a land that was 19 years in lawlessness, this is a welcome phanemenon. So what the TFG needs to do is actually provide that "freame-work/roadmap" while this impasse is going on.

But the question is can Sheikh Sharif do that and not a single fiber of my body tells me he can do it. The man is completely ineffective and ill-suited for his position. I saw it as soon as I gave him support when he started crisscrossing across Africa while opposition consolidated their control.

Foreign Policy had a great article on Somalia this week and said

If the TFG is overrun, it will not be Obama's fault, but rather because the TFG's new leadership dropped the ball and failed to build the necessary coalitions to outmaneuver a radical Islamist movement that appeared to be in deep trouble only six months ago.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... l?page=0,1