original dervish wrote: Tue Jul 30, 2019 5:43 am
We've seen this scenario in a thousand conflicts all over the world.
I have no doubt sl will win this battle but will eventually lose the war marking the end of the nascent unitary iidoor state.
The sl armed forces are the preeminant fighting force in the north. They have the best equipment, resources and training. No tribal militia can overcome them in conventional warefare.
However, the rebels are using classic guerrilla tactics....using the remote and isolated Golis mountain range as a base of operations with the support of the local people.
The military advantage sl has in heavy armour is negated by the fact they have no way of deploying tanks, armoured vehicles and artillery to the Golis mountains.
Mountain passes and trails can easily be defended by a small determined force using heavy machine guns, land mines and snipers.
I expect the Bixi regime to use overwhelming force in the hope of quickly destroying the rebels.....this will cause immense casualties on the govt side, which may result in undisciplined soldiers killing local hy civilians....thus acting as a recruiting sergeant for the rebels.
If the fighting becomes increasingly bitter .....I you can expect to see hy gunman carrying out targeted attacks in Burco/Hargeisa.
The end result will be all out tribal war along the lines of the last great iidoor war 1995.
If Bixi has good advice he will not seek to retake the Golis mountains, but instead contain the rebels in a remote area where they can do very little harm.
Entreaties of elders, sheikhs and prominent businessmen could then be used to address the complaints of the rebels and reduce support for conflict.
However, the iidoor are Somali's just like the rest.....strategic thinking and making concessions are alien concepts.
The above article has already confirmed that Bixi is planning a far reaching offensive and expects major casualties.
When the dust settles in 2-3 of bitter fighting sl as a single iidoor polity will cease to exist. There will be two sl, east and west.