The Somali Election Thread - Analysis & Prediction

[Strategic]

finalists
CC,HSM and Some other guy i dont want.

[Strategic]

to name.

[vinshom]

There can't be more than 11 presidential nominees under the new rule.

[smooth]

The latest rumours coming from the CC camp, transmitted by the Guleed camp is that their strategy is to all vote for D&M as speaker to rule Sakiin out from running for presidency.

Its a smart strategy already predicted and hence why I picked Sakiin to win, the fact they took this strategy tells me, they feel confident running against HSM but not Sakiin because of big Galmudug support for Sakiin, and I previously predicted he will likely go with Jibriil as PM.

It looks like the Ethiopian's are caught in two minds here, they don't mind either but they are more Pro Sakiin, but they are far more fearful of CC then we are, hence they are lobbying very hard to have an Ogadeen run for speaker to rule CC out. CC is hurting Farmaajo chances here big time.

So far Guleed and Sakiin camp are both on board with this Ethiopian strategy to get Xidig the speaker post, but HSM and Ahla sheikh camps are totally against this, and I can understand why, this will hurt HSM, Farmaajo and Sheikh Sharriif if Ogaden gets the speaker post and ensures an easy victory for Sakiin.

It looks like the CC/Ahla Sheikh/Damul Jadiid camps will win this battle against Guleed and Sakiin, all three want to Punish Sakiin for this by going with D&M for the speaker, but the big rumours are that HSM camp has promised the post to DIR for their support, CC is trying to counter this hence the meeting with Garaxajis DIR in Kenya, speculation the deals are probably support in return for important posts & possibly their own federal state, the new Khaatumo deal should be viewed in this context, as a response to this threat.

Looks like Sakiin might be able to dodge this nasty bullet here because of the split of interests between all the groups here for the speaker post, a sit down with Fiqhe relatives of the Ahla Sheikh camp is that HSM had a sit down with Sakiin in response to that infamous meeting, no one knows what's discussed, but HSM called it, and therefore I believe he is either worried about CC or the speaker post going for Ogadeen, both terrible outcomes for him.

We can only speculate what's discussed but he is likely looking for a deal, probably trying to bluff Sakiin which I doubt would work, You can never rule out HSM, there is a lot of cards left for him to play, honestly him running will rule out any other HAG candidate from winning, and because the whole IC is against him, and the general consensus is people want change, he is unlikely to win and if he doesn't it's game-over for HAG for the foreseeable future at the most critical juncture in the history, him running is what's giving CC the biggest chance.

If HSM didn't run for re-election sheikh shariif would win with a landslide without a shadow of a doubt, but there is only so much votes and both Sakiin and CC combined have half of them tied up between them. If he bottles this, he will go from average president to the worst we have ever had especially if CC wins, this is too much risk at this point, he should drop out.

The speaker election will decide who wins this, HSM is pushing for an extension, it's not looking good at the moment.

[Halmogg]

I would love to see CC win and not because i care for the amison seat, but just to see the hypocrites hutus shit themselves. All of sudden you will see instant rise of alshabaab recruitment kkk

[FarhanYare]

Smooth,
Waad waalantahay. Cumar abdirashid what support does he have other than harti darood (dhuloos, iyo kuwa kale) iyo as you said Sacad? Asaga iyo Farmajo labaduba waxeey ku harayaan first round. Unless, he utilises the theft money which he received illegally by selling the country's sea. Assuming he didn't invest that money elsewhere . At the end of the day wax la yirah qabiil meesha ma-taalo. It is simple: Whoever offers the highest bribe wins the presidency irrespective of whether he is darood, hawiye or D&M. It is a sad state!

Moreover, the list of musharaxs from Abgaal is nothing short of outrageousness - Old crugs!

[smooth]

Smooth,
Whoever offers the highest bribe wins the presidency irrespective of whether he is darood, hawiye or D&M. It is a sad state!
!

Money is not an issue in this election, most candidates have it, the UAE alone has given 30 million to CC, if all candidates can offer you the 100k for your vote, you will go with what's in your interest, money was an issue before for many other candidates, it's no longer the case.

[FarhanYare]

Smooth,
Whoever offers the highest bribe wins the presidency irrespective of whether he is darood, hawiye or D&M. It is a sad state!
!

Money is not an issue in this election, most candidates have it, the UAE alone has given 30 million to CC, if all candidates can offer you the 100k for your vote, you will go with what's in your interest, money was an issue before for many other candidates, it's no longer the case.

They all have the money of course, but the level of wealth possessed by each isn't the same amount, thus, some can afford to outbid others

[Cunaaye25]

Full list of dhulbahante MPs and Senates. And their pictures.

Who were elected from Garoowe.

Jengali Pro Omar camp
Da'uud Bisinle ex wasiir Petroleum under Pm Cabdiwali sheekh. Pro Puntland.

http://kalshaale.ca/2016/12/12/sawiroak ... oomaaliya/

Nope they are not. Lol

I though ex wasiir for puntland Da'uud - will be pro Omar camp- i guess alliances change .
http://raadraacnews.com/Raadraacnews/20 ... 3MCkr.dpbs

and as for Jangali who served under cabdulahai yusuf, and Omar the current Pm, who brought him to serve the current gov, him and ilkajir,khadiijo who is from canada. i thought he will be pro omar camp. You never know politics the alliances can change.

http://www.lughaya.com/home/2015/02/10/ ... -somaliya/

http://shacabkamedia.com/7692/jangali-i ... -ku-yimid/

[Cunaaye25]

Xidig running for xilka Gudoomiyaha is not the first time-

he failed miserably -he only got 10 votes (2012)

the rebel Ali khaliif galeyr got at least 77 votes,

http://www.somaale.com/prof-maxamed-she ... rlamaanka/

And this time if he runs for the speakers post he will fail miserably again.

The sakiin snake will pay this time, if they don't run for the post. Dir will get it instead.

From now till Jan 5 alliances will be formed, plans will be hatched.

Omar got this one in the bag come jan 22.


and each candidate needs to come up with $30000 and 20 xildhibaano votes.
the only guys who can come up with that guaranteed.
Hassan,Omar,sakiin,and -
maybe sheekh sharif,faroole,farmaajo.

[HashIII]

Who would have guessed that a Raxaweyne would have such strong chances at winning when the country hasn't even reached normalcy yet?

Unbelievable stuff wallahi.

[smooth]

Galmudug, Hiirshabelle and South-West have met with the Ethiopian delegation to discuss strategy today, incredible stuff, just as I had predicted, it looks like they will all unite behind a Darood candidate for the speaker post to rule out CC, the Ethiopian's are convinced he will win otherwise.

If I told you guys 1-15 years ago, that a time will come the Ethiopian's will choose development over destabilization (China deal) and therefore no longer ally with the renegade administrations and Anti unity stability block of S/land and P/land, everyone would have laughed out loud.

But that's exactly what's happening today and I was seeing this shift the past 7 months and even wrote a post about it, the benefit of outside sources and interference's is that it unites even bitter enemies, the new "Ethiopia" mantra we been hearing the past year or so looks like its real.

The Ethiopian strategy will make sure Sakiin would pretty much win this, unless P/land J/land and HSM block all vote for D&M candidate for speaker post, which is suicide for the HAG block because Sakiin will punish them with his 69+ guaranteed voting block, even all of them going for D&M may not necessary bring the desired outcome, Sakiin still has significant votes from Hiirshabelle/Galmudug administration, hence this meeting.

Shariif Sakiin has the best hands and the best cards in this game and that's why I predicted he will win, he had a head start on everyone else, while they were going through MP selection process, haggling, infighting, changes, he had his 69+ from the start uncontested and while they squabbled he was making alliances.

[BlueBlood]

D/M deserve presidency but i hope that sakin doesnt become somali president...rather have HSM back thank sakin.

[vinshom]

Galmudug, Hiirshabelle and South-West have met with the Ethiopian delegation to discuss strategy today, incredible stuff, just as I had predicted, it looks like they will all unite behind a Darood candidate for the speaker post to rule out CC, the Ethiopian's are convinced he will win otherwise.

If I told you guys 1-15 years ago, that a time will come the Ethiopian's will choose development over destabilization (China deal) and therefore no longer ally with the renegade administrations and Anti unity stability block of S/land and P/land, everyone would have laughed out loud.

But that's exactly what's happening today and I was seeing this shift the past 7 months and even wrote a post about it, the benefit of outside sources and interference's is that it unites even bitter enemies, the new "Ethiopia" mantra we been hearing the past year or so looks like its real.

The Ethiopian strategy will make sure Sakiin would pretty much win this, unless P/land J/land and HSM block all vote for D&M candidate for speaker post, which is suicide for the HAG block because Sakiin will punish them with his 69+ guaranteed voting block, even all of them going for D&M may not necessary bring the desired outcome, Sakiin still has significant votes from Hiirshabelle/Galmudug administration, hence this meeting.

Shariif Sakiin has the best hands and the best cards in this game and that's why I predicted he will win, he had a head start on everyone else, while they were going through MP selection process, haggling, infighting, changes, he had his 69+ from the start uncontested and while they squabbled he was making alliances.

You are good but let us hope a HAG candidate to defeat Sakiin in the final otherwise Somalia will select un educated person to the highest position LOL

Who thought Sakiin is ingenious Somali politics is becoming more crazy.

[Khalid Ali]

i hope sakin wins it will be historic if dm wins
besides sharif hassan is a money lover he would totallly bank rupt walanweynistan.. i dont mind cumar cabdirashid either cumar buur is not to bad. i would love the reaction of the hawiye if that happens.