TPLF grip on power slipping in Ethiopia
Posted: Mon Jul 23, 2007 1:11 pm
http://www.africanpath.com/p_blogEntry. ... tryID=1645
After being imprisoned for more than 20 months, the release of the CUD opposition party leaders brought rare smiles in the streets of the capital Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
The opposition leaders apparently signed an apology letter to win their freedom and despite earlier uncertainty, all previously jailed politicians kept all their constitutional rights to be elected and participate in politics.
In a country where democratic values and culture is still lacking, the gradual rise of peaceful political parties to power is a breakthrough that many have been anticipating for decades. Despite most of the opposition parties working in the current Ethiopian parliament, the addition of the CUD leaders will be a big step forward. The CUD opposition party remains the most powerful and one of the harshest competitive groups against the Meles Zenawi administration. By far, it is the strongest Amhara-led opposition party. Also, with the rise of critical ethnic Oromo-led opposition parties in the parliament, the consensus is that having the voice of the majority of Ethiopians being heard will not be an issue anymore. Currently, the OFDM, the Oromo National Congress’s MP Merara Gudina and the independent MP Negasso Gidada are increasing becoming the harshest individual critics of the Meles Zenawi government, even more than CUD’s top leaders. Other opposition parties like the UEDP-Medhin remain in the middle and accuse both (which they label as “rejectionist”) opposition parties and the ruling party for allegedly applying “blanket rejection.”
The general background of the MPs and the parties can’t be any more diverse than it is. Despite most claiming to respect the Ethiopian constitution and the sovereignty of Ethiopia, various opposition MPs are the replicas of the same rebels & insurgents fighting the Meles Zenawi government in some border areas of the country. As the recent defection of the pro-ONLF rebel Somali regional state MP Jemal Dirie Kalif showed, many parliamentarians representing their southern constituency have relations with rebel groups in some level or another. Accordingly, MPs like Negasso Gidada struggle for the self-determination of the ethnic Oromos. Parliamentarians like Mr. Negasso thus reduce the history of Ethiopia claiming that “Ethiopia was created and is maintained by the barrel of the gun or by force, the Naftanyaa, and not by the free will or self determination of the peoples of the country.” At the same time, most of the pro-rebel parliamentarians keep the option of a united Ethiopia based on the equality of all ethnicities and the formation of democratic institutions. In contrast, big opposition groups like the CUD claim that their form of Ethiopian unity & Ethiopian sovereignty is not negotiable, and the question of nationalities & ethnicities does not need to be addressed at all. For most of the opposition parties, both the general understanding of Ethiopia’s future and past history are at odds. Thus it is an understatement to say that the current Ethiopian parliament is incredibly diverse. With MPs who have as conflicting goals as they can possible get, and with MPs differing in policies that are unbelievably essential to the fundamental national interests of any nation, the current Ethiopian parliament is arguably the most diverse parliament in the world.
As the result, the reality that all of these groups are actually sitting around a table and peacefully discussing the future of Ethiopia and Ethiopians is extraordinary, and definitely rare. This makes the chances that Ethiopia will one day be governed by politicians who came to power wearing suits and tie much greater. In addition, the rise of northern/Tigrayan opposition parties means that the ruling party’s main support base (Tigray) will also undergo necessary democratic reforms as much as the rest of Ethiopia. These developments make the case for violent separatist groups weaker than ever. Even the OLF rebel group (which is gradually leaning to a unitary system) has been quiet in contrast to the ONLF rebels. The ONLF separatist group in the Ogaden region is currently using all its power to overthrow the government and create a separate nation. Thus it is becoming clearer that only pro-secession guerrilla fighters, who did not necessarily believe that they can participate in a democracy and multiparty government in Ethiopia, are the most active destabilizing forces in the region. In general, the release of the CUD opposition party leaders (if followed up with their total incorporation to the parliament that leads to a creation of democratic institutions) can be a big turning point for democracy in Ethiopia. Even though such analysis might be the most optimism one, it is an understatement to say that a democratic, participatory and peaceful multiparty competitive political system in Ethiopia has a better chance to succeed today than ever before.
After being imprisoned for more than 20 months, the release of the CUD opposition party leaders brought rare smiles in the streets of the capital Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
The opposition leaders apparently signed an apology letter to win their freedom and despite earlier uncertainty, all previously jailed politicians kept all their constitutional rights to be elected and participate in politics.
In a country where democratic values and culture is still lacking, the gradual rise of peaceful political parties to power is a breakthrough that many have been anticipating for decades. Despite most of the opposition parties working in the current Ethiopian parliament, the addition of the CUD leaders will be a big step forward. The CUD opposition party remains the most powerful and one of the harshest competitive groups against the Meles Zenawi administration. By far, it is the strongest Amhara-led opposition party. Also, with the rise of critical ethnic Oromo-led opposition parties in the parliament, the consensus is that having the voice of the majority of Ethiopians being heard will not be an issue anymore. Currently, the OFDM, the Oromo National Congress’s MP Merara Gudina and the independent MP Negasso Gidada are increasing becoming the harshest individual critics of the Meles Zenawi government, even more than CUD’s top leaders. Other opposition parties like the UEDP-Medhin remain in the middle and accuse both (which they label as “rejectionist”) opposition parties and the ruling party for allegedly applying “blanket rejection.”
The general background of the MPs and the parties can’t be any more diverse than it is. Despite most claiming to respect the Ethiopian constitution and the sovereignty of Ethiopia, various opposition MPs are the replicas of the same rebels & insurgents fighting the Meles Zenawi government in some border areas of the country. As the recent defection of the pro-ONLF rebel Somali regional state MP Jemal Dirie Kalif showed, many parliamentarians representing their southern constituency have relations with rebel groups in some level or another. Accordingly, MPs like Negasso Gidada struggle for the self-determination of the ethnic Oromos. Parliamentarians like Mr. Negasso thus reduce the history of Ethiopia claiming that “Ethiopia was created and is maintained by the barrel of the gun or by force, the Naftanyaa, and not by the free will or self determination of the peoples of the country.” At the same time, most of the pro-rebel parliamentarians keep the option of a united Ethiopia based on the equality of all ethnicities and the formation of democratic institutions. In contrast, big opposition groups like the CUD claim that their form of Ethiopian unity & Ethiopian sovereignty is not negotiable, and the question of nationalities & ethnicities does not need to be addressed at all. For most of the opposition parties, both the general understanding of Ethiopia’s future and past history are at odds. Thus it is an understatement to say that the current Ethiopian parliament is incredibly diverse. With MPs who have as conflicting goals as they can possible get, and with MPs differing in policies that are unbelievably essential to the fundamental national interests of any nation, the current Ethiopian parliament is arguably the most diverse parliament in the world.
As the result, the reality that all of these groups are actually sitting around a table and peacefully discussing the future of Ethiopia and Ethiopians is extraordinary, and definitely rare. This makes the chances that Ethiopia will one day be governed by politicians who came to power wearing suits and tie much greater. In addition, the rise of northern/Tigrayan opposition parties means that the ruling party’s main support base (Tigray) will also undergo necessary democratic reforms as much as the rest of Ethiopia. These developments make the case for violent separatist groups weaker than ever. Even the OLF rebel group (which is gradually leaning to a unitary system) has been quiet in contrast to the ONLF rebels. The ONLF separatist group in the Ogaden region is currently using all its power to overthrow the government and create a separate nation. Thus it is becoming clearer that only pro-secession guerrilla fighters, who did not necessarily believe that they can participate in a democracy and multiparty government in Ethiopia, are the most active destabilizing forces in the region. In general, the release of the CUD opposition party leaders (if followed up with their total incorporation to the parliament that leads to a creation of democratic institutions) can be a big turning point for democracy in Ethiopia. Even though such analysis might be the most optimism one, it is an understatement to say that a democratic, participatory and peaceful multiparty competitive political system in Ethiopia has a better chance to succeed today than ever before.