Rebellion to begin in the South?

[James Dahl]

The core of the ICU, and opposition to the TFG, definitely seems to be Banadir, Lower Shabelle and parts of Middle and Lower Juba, with Upper Shabelle and Galgadud definitely "fair-weather friends" of theirs (ie we're with you while things are going well, but once things go bad we're out of here).

[Luq_Ganane]

James Dahl. Another wrong assumption. There is no resistance to the TFG at all in any of the Jubba regions. They don't have a military presence there so whats there to resist? As for Galgudud, there out of the discussion as no central Gov't could even dream of going there. Even Eithiopian troops are very cautious going into that region, and usually are in and out quickly because of the craziness and unpredictability of those people.

[King-of-Awdal]

[quote="Luq_Ganane"]James Dahl. Another wrong assumption. There is no resistance to the TFG at all in any of the Jubba regions. They don't have a military presence there so whats there to resist? As for Galgudud, there out of the discussion as no central Gov't could even dream of going there. Even Eithiopian troops are very cautious going into that region, and usually are in and out quickly because of the craziness and unpredictability of those people. [/quote]


who lives in Galgudud am curious as it is mentioned alot.

[Astute-K]

^marehan, murusade, habargidir and abgaal.

[James Dahl]

By "parts of" Jubaland I mean the parts on the right bank of the Juba River, like Jamame and Jilib. Not Bardhere, Bu'alle or Kismayo, though the ICU and TFG probably have about equal support there, and most of the population don't want either.

[King-of-Awdal]

[quote="Astute-K"]^marehan, murusade, habargidir and abgaal.[/quote]


thnx

[Luq_Ganane]

Awdal,

Galgudud is inhabited by some subclans of Marehan, HG, some Abgal, Murarsade. This place along with Mudug, make central Somlia a pretty historically turbulent place.


James,

Jamame and Jilib are inhabited by a mix of Harti, Bantus, Sheikhal and other minorities. Theres a few Cayr there too, but I'm not sure they could constitue a "rebelion" or uprising per se.

[Astute-K]

marehan settle in jubba in small numbers. other clans like sheikhaal, biyamaal and other hawiye clans are all anti-tfg and pro-icu. even ogaadeens in jubba are mostly pro-icu. the only city that marehan live in is kismanyo and we all know jubba is much more than just kismanyo.

[King-of-Awdal]

Luq i guess that makes Galgudud the most diversfied region of somalia. no wonder the south is termoil cause it seems in the north we are more homengous society where one clan each dominates his region.

[Luq_Ganane]

Awdal,

You nailed it right on the head. Puntland and Somaliland are pretty homegenious. The South is a mix of so many clans. However one trend you'll find is areas that are controlled by one group are generally peaceful. Gedo for instance is by far the safest region in Southern Somalia, because theres no contention for the region as just one clans settles it pretty much. However places like the Jubba region are heavilly contested between everybody because there isn't one clear cut majority.

[James Dahl]

Bantus and minorities prefer the ICU to the TFG because they have no representation in the 4.5 system, but could have their own court in the ICU system and vote in the Shura.

[DawladSade]

[quote="Astute-K"]marehan settle in jubba in small numbers. other clans like sheikhaal, biyamaal and other hawiye clans are all anti-tfg and pro-icu. even ogaadeens in jubba are mostly pro-icu. the only city that marehan live in is kismanyo and we all know jubba is much more than just kismanyo.[/quote]


Marehan is the majority and undisputed military power of Jubbaland. Marehan dislike Abdullahi Yusuf but are extremely anti-ICU. No chance for them in Jubbaland.


Awdal, Galgaduud is mostly Marehan and Habar Gidir followed by Murusade and Duduble. Abgaal are not counted as inhabitants of Galgaduud.

Luq, the "reer mudug" turbulent culture you hear of stops with Dhusa-mareb. The Murusade, Abgaal, below it are counted as "reer Koonfureed". They don't have the culture of the Marehan, Saleebaan, neighboring them all the way to Gaalkacyo. Even half of Cayr are passive and domicile and not "reer Mudug".

[Luq_Ganane]

^^

But do they have the guns?

In the jungle we call Somalia, thats all that matters unfortunately.

[King-of-Awdal]

so than why not trade people around. i guess the Marehan can go to Kismayo or Gedu. the H.G i guess Galgudud since every one says thats their base. and the abgaal back to hamar and the other ones back to their folkz. than we can all get along and forget about the past and each region declare independence. i know thats not realistic but its a start. on a side not my best friend wants me to go to Bossasso with him next year and i wanna him to visit Borame and Djbouti though i can gurantee his safety am not sure he can Gurantee mine as he is Warsengali.

[DawladSade]

Most Gedabursi are pro-Somaliweyn, even thir king Boqor Raabi was in Mogadishu for the shir. You have been influenced too much by your Isaaq abtiyaal.