UCID will win the elections Somaliland 2008 ?

[Sanaagian]

check out the statistics

Table 3: Votes for parties by region in the presidential and parliamentary elections
UDUB 2003 UDUB 2005 Kulmiye 2003 Kulmiye 2005 UCID 2003 UCID 2005
W/Galbeed 79,328 81,552 81,585 95,881 47,951 75,796
Awdal 43,347 74,691 16,607 26,837 5,976 31,498
Saaxil 17,554 21,793 10,271 12,355 2,712 18,331
Togdheer 38,105 39,529 63,506 47,639 13,453 34,583
Sanaag 23,359 34,727 27,830 36,652 6,749 17,907
Sool 3,715 9,157 5,524 8,964 463 2,436
National Level 187 192 129
205,595 261,449 205,515 228,328 77,433 180,551

http://www.ciir.org/shared_asp_files/up ... lowres.pdf
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In 2003 during the presidential elections Kulmiye was over 62.33 % larger than UCID and UDUB was quite the same size .
Remember the famous 80 votes UDUB won by
205 591 voters UDUB 2003

KULMIYE got 205 515 voters

while UCID got barely 77 433 voters.

but something happened in the 2005 elections according to my calculations
UCID was the sole winner with a wopping jump of 57 % in size.
Kulmiye's growth was less than 10 % from 2003
UDUB's growth was 21.37 % from from 2003

UCID jumped from having a voter base of 77 433 to 180 551 voters.
The increase was largest in Hargeisa ....


What do we call a party that jumps over 50 % in size on just two years
I think the americans calls it a comeback kid

Faisal Ali Waraabe might become next president

[Advocatar]

Viva Sanaag and Sool states of Somalia.....

[cabdallah252]

ha, riyaale will just rig the entire elections with his corrupt mafia it will be worse than how kibaki did it lol

[Sanaagian]

no need for speculations mate

lets have a mature discussion

I must say I am impressed UCID was quite close to Kulmiye in Togdheer state , and actually won in Saaxil state!!

now analyse that!

[djibsomali]

Aparently from someone who is well connected in somaliland said.

UDUB will have more vote let alone UCID but (Combined UCID and kulmiyee).

The fact for UDUB:

1) closure of frontier
2) good foreign policy (with at least some sort of recognition on sigth)
3)An excellent ARMY thanks to UDUB
4)Riyale ain't a fresh guy to hargeisa eyes, unlike last election
5) the support from habar awal, samarone and issa from djibouti with the economy

There is much going on for UDUB apparently.

But then again you migth know better than me as i am not a somalilander

[cabdallah252]

[quote="Sanaagian"]no need for speculations mate

lets have a mature discussion

I must say I am impressed UCID was quite close to Kulmiye in Togdheer state , and actually won in Saaxil state!!

now analyse that![/quote]


explain how the somaliland political system works? i heard you guys can only have 3 parties and can't have anymore why is that and what do these parties stand for and what qabiils favors what party

[Sanaagian]

Cabdallah we allow only 3 parties in JSL constitution and that was the 3 winners of the first multiparty elections in our history. It's because we have learned from the past when in Somalia every subclan had a party turning up like 60 competiting large ones... lol .We dont need that .
The Qaran case is nothing but calaacal and bending of rules *
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Now I can explain parts of the massive jump in UCID from the document.
Habr Yunis politicians became part of UCID who formerly where in UDUB.
Why Kulmiye declined in Togdheer and Sanaag is partly because Harti population failed and even lost 3 official seats in parliament. ( I am guessing from informartion provided )

So short said
Harti declining = Kulmiye declining

With Sool under UDUB parole today
it means the party will increase more.
But then again UCID is known to steal votes from both camps of the two elephants.
So a third elephant is on the move.
Faisal Ali Waraabe increased most in all regions , esp in two of the most important Waqooyie Galbeed and Awdal it was a huge growth our " New Hampshire and Iowa " .

UCID 2008 It looks realistic

[fagash_killer]

ucid only won big in saxiil.but all the regions of somaliland except for saxiil they ended third.in awdal they were pretty close to kulmiye.djiboutian in hargeisa udub was very close to kulmiye.your analyses are quite right and thats why i think that udub will win big in 2008.we only have to focuss on and where it went wrong in some of the regions where udub is not so populair.the ppl of sool and sanaag are happy now with udubs policy since he is the first leader that could make them part of somaliland without using force. and about beesha dhulbahanta iyo warsangeli i think they will rather vote for udub were riyaale is in office than snm nazis like silanyo iyo waraabe. trust me 2008 is our year.and hartis do have more seats than ciidangale iyo arap ayuub combined in udub.

for udub is it only better if kulmiye voters switch to ucid.

[djibsomali]

I have heard a guy called awil (the finance minister) is the mover and shaker in somaliland.

With his Constituency Awil will won any election any day and he is with UDUB.

Unless kulmiyee change their leader they will never win any election

[Sanaagian]

Thats exactly what I also meant Samaroon boy
reer Harti used to boast Kulmiye but presumably with Haabsade and Sandule, they will use their influence and popularity to boast UDUB more than Kulmiye in 2008.

Faqash its not about " seats " look behind the scenery of Waqooyie Galbeed.
Ciidagale and Sacad Muse is together the largest block of voters to access for the parties , no visible hate/love leaders , they also have easy access to transport and communication at least more than reer Bari and Togdheer. However they are also the wealthiest , most " Somaliland " educated reero.
no need for camel bribery there loool. Its really Iowa and New Hampshire

Again UCID had the largest increasy in percent also in Sool.
if they increase 25 - 30 % they will surpass Kulmiye in 2008 and seriously challenge UDUB with small margines.

Hurraay for Waraabe a true democrat
UCID is no longer a strictly Ciidagale party

Did you know how UDUB got huge?
they absorbed all the small parties , after invitation they became the new super party at that era.
Awil is Habr Yunis man. The key is to find out how many are Habr Yunis and Ciidagale ministers and representatives in UDUB , they will easily tip the balance in any direction.

Faisal Ali Waraabe should propose to Habr Jeclo in 2008?

[fagash_killer]

[quote="djibsomali"]I have heard a guy called awil (the finance minister) is the mover and shaker in somaliland.

With his Constituency Awil will won any election any day and he is with UDUB.

Unless kulmiyee change their leader they will never win any election[/quote]

maa waxaad kaa waataa Wasiirka Maaliyadda Somaliland Md. Xuseen Cali Ducaale Cawil?

Cawil waxa uu ahaa nin illaa iyo lixdanii ku dhex jiray siyaasadda Somalia/Somaliland

he once siad in one of his famous interviews that qaba'il ayaa wax qasa.

udub and somaliland is both blessed to have a experienced leader like cawil.

he is known for his strong mouthpiece when ever he opens his mouth he kills you with facts he attacked the islamic courts al qaida onlf and all of the enemies of his nation.he shutted them all up.

[fagash_killer]

just read this interview.the guy admitted that some of his votes went to ucid in toghdeer.but he said i will work hard to bring most of his clan to support udub.


http://www.somalilandpatriots.com/news-3316.html

[fagash_killer]

[quote="Sanaagian"]Thats exactly what I also meant Samaroon boy
reer Harti used to boast Kulmiye but presumably with Haabsade and Sandule, they will use their influence and popularity to boast UDUB more than Kulmiye in 2008.

Faqash its not about " seats " look behind the scenery of Waqooyie Galbeed.
Ciidagale and Sacad Muse is together the largest block of voters to access for the parties , no visible hate/love leaders , they also have easy access to transport and communication at least more than reer Bari and Togdheer. However they are also the wealthiest , most " Somaliland " educated reero.
no need for camel bribery there loool. Its really Iowa and New Hampshire

Again UCID had the largest increasy in percent also in Sool.
if they increase 25 - 30 % they will surpass Kulmiye in 2008 and seriously challenge UDUB with small margines.

Hurraay for Waraabe a true democrat
UCID is no longer a strictly Ciidagale party

Did you know how UDUB got huge?
they absorbed all the small parties , after invitation they became the new super party at that era.
Awil is Habr Yunis man. The key is to find out how many are Habr Yunis and Ciidagale ministers and representatives in UDUB , they will easily tip the balance in any direction.

Faisal Ali Waraabe should propose to Habr Jeclo in 2008?[/quote]


sacad muuse and ciidangale you are talking about in hargeisa voted vor udub and kulmiye. ucid was not even close.sacad muuse were first divided in between kulmiye and ucid in 2003,2005 kulmiye iyo udub but most of them are pissed off and cut their support from kulmiye since the last incident between silanyo and cismaan hindi. and dont forget cismaan hindi joined udub that means that sacad muuse support to udub will only increase.so hargeisa gabiley arabsiyo and area where sacad muuse live i can bet that udub will get this time mo votes excetly what udub needed support from the waqooyi galbeed side. the bari side we have on lock already sool sanaag burco my analyses seems to be true.i could careless if ucid will increase with votes like i said its only better for udub if ucid and kulmiye voters switch to vote.and teedaa kallee dont you know that the spy of siyaad barre yesterday is today the spy for jaalle riyaale?waraabe is no treath for us.the job he get from his nss master is to damage kulmiye so he is our brave boy.

[Phd in naago kudis]

^^^

flip flopper

one day he iswith somaliland

the next day he is screaming somaliweyne ha noolato

[fagash_killer]

[quote="Phd in naago kudis"]^^^

flip flopper

one day he iswith somaliland

the next day he is screaming somaliweyne ha noolato[/quote]

well its time for you to learn samaroon lesson 101. meel kaastee waa inaanuu kaa soo baxnaa hadee ahatoo djibouti somalia ethiopia iyo somaliland baa.thats why we are known for our brains sxb.anaguu waxaan uu tartamanaa siidaan east africa oo dhaan caqligeenaa kuu qabsanoo and you are talking about flip flopper thats how far we are ahead with our brains.