Shariifs Selection: My Analysis

[Unclebin-]

Screw and the other Moderators please don't move this.

Kudos to the fella but he's got an uphill batte from here.

Somaliland isn't going to work with him. Thats a certainty.

Puntland Will probably play the same role they played post-Arta.

Now want remains in South Galkacyo to Raas Kambooni.

The Shabaab Factor-

If you've been observant like me. The shabaab on their website (Kataaib Which is has now been pulled down by Uncle Sam) had started to refer to Sheik Shariif as simply Shariif.

Mind you Shariif Sheik Ahmed (they still got respect for his pops) ran away from the battle fields of jihad and that doesn't exactly work with Shabaab.

Shabaab along with their allies Raas Kambooni Jabiso etc et al have strategically placed themselves in a position to take most of the south (Galkacyo to Raas Kambooni).

They control The Two jubbas, Shabelle Hoose, Much of Gedo and are poised Bakool and they already have Bay.

They also have presence in Shabelle Dheexe (They are fighting in balcad) they recently controlled most of Galgaduud under the tutelage of Adan Ceyrow AUN and later Timo jilec aka Abu Sulaym AUN until the so called ahlu sunnah warlords took over with the help of the habeshi but Al shabaab are poised to make a comeback.

Now Shariifs group control Beledweyn Most of Hiiraan for that matter and Shabelle dheexe (It's his power base).

Xamar is were all these groups including Asmara are in.

Shabaab want to fight the Amison troops. He wants more Amison troops.

Shabaab want to take Somaali Galbeed NFD , he wants 'peace' with somalia's neighbours.


Hassan Dahir Aweys-

He's beens sending messages of Support for Al Shabaab indirectly. He's against the Djibouti group conference and he believes that they should continue to attack the Amisom forces.

He's the X-factor.

Now what will finally happen is that Shabaab and Shariif either sit down (highly unlikely) or duke it out.

We will wait and see.

[Somalian_Boqor]

Unclebin- you don't know what you are talking about so just go away.

[TrophY-WifeY-]

nigaa plz.......

[FAH1223]

Good Analysis.... its pretty much the reality at the moment

[Unclebin-]

Fah

Some here believe that Shabaab are going to give the fruits of their labour (I.e they control 5.5 provinces and have presence in 3 others they've even named a wakiil to benadir) and give it up because of an election of a man who they don't respect no more.

This is just my observation. if anybody wants to add anything then you should.

[FAH1223]

Fah

Some here believe that Shabaab are going to give the fruits of their labour (I.e they control 5.5 provinces and have presence in 3 others they've even named a wakiil to benadir) and give it up because of an election of a man who they don't respect no more.

This is just my observation. if anybody wants to add anything then you should.

No man, you're 100% right.

They aren't going to just give up what they fought for.

Looks like its a new saga of civil war

[Unclebin-]

I think the following is going to happen. Asmara wing either join Shariif or Shabaab.

Asmara probably joins shabaab. If Adan Ceyrow AUN is alive then they would already be part of Shabaab.

Then it's AU FORCES being attacked daily. They either flee or get more support logistic or otherwise from the habeshi, Americans etc.

Now if the Shabaab wage war and they leave. Then all thats left is a showdown between ARS-djibouti and Al Shabaab.

So many people believe the shabaab are going to give the proverbial keys back to their parents.

[James Dahl]

Sharif wants al-Shabab to not join him right away, that gives him leverage in making demands to "appease al-Shabab", such as implimenting Sharia law, bringing the courts back, more seats for Islamists etc.
In the meantime al-Shabab can continue seizing territory from warlords and clan militias and "there's nothing he can do".

[Unclebin-]

James Dahl

Thats an interesting way at looking at things. However you haven't taken into account the Shabaabs salafi Jihadi world view i.e All muslims are citizens of Muslim Land and hence why Saleh Ali Nabhani is with them and others also. The US will never allow them to flourish.

They want to have a global Caliphate hence ibrahim al maqdis statement about going to solomon islands, iceland, Alaska etc

Shariif is more of the Ikhwani type. I.e Hamas type. Have a 'somali' islamic state. In somali borders.

Shabaav want A 'global' islamic state around the world.

[FAH1223]

James Dahl

Thats an interesting way at looking at things. However you haven't taken into account the Shabaabs salafi Jihadi world view i.e All muslims are citizens of Muslim Land and hence why Saleh Ali Nabhani is with them and others also. The US will never allow them to flourish.

They want to have a global Caliphate hence ibrahim al maqdis statement about going to solomon islands, iceland, Alaska etc

Shariif is more of the Ikhwani type. I.e Hamas type. Have a 'somali' islamic state. In somali borders.

Shabaav want A 'global' islamic state around the world.

do they really think they can achieve that by keeping on the fight

[James Dahl]

James Dahl

Thats an interesting way at looking at things. However you haven't taken into account the Shabaabs salafi Jihadi world view i.e All muslims are citizens of Muslim Land and hence why Saleh Ali Nabhani is with them and others also. The US will never allow them to flourish.

They want to have a global Caliphate hence ibrahim al maqdis statement about going to solomon islands, iceland, Alaska etc

Shariif is more of the Ikhwani type. I.e Hamas type. Have a 'somali' islamic state. In somali borders.

Shabaav want A 'global' islamic state around the world.

This is why al-Shabab have no hope of being in charge, they have no savvy. They have already made numerous mistakes that have cost them valuable public support, and their support base will flock to a viable, Sharia-based alternative. They are useful at the moment as "rogue elements" who nevertheless bring areas under Islamist control and out of warlord control, which is a much larger long-term problem for Sharif Sheikh Ahmad than al-Shabab, who are at best a temporary and in fact useful obstacle.

[Unclebin-]

Fah

The sahaba fought and they made empires collapse I.e Persia and half of the roman byzantine empire.

Now I am not saying shabaab are like the sahaba but they put their trust in Allah and have it firmly fixed they will conquer man lands.

This is happening in Algeria with the GSPC AKA Al Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb, in Afghanistan with the taliban, in Iraq with the ISI aka Islamic state of Iraq in Chechnya with Islamic Emirate of the Caucaus etc.

I think they don't fear anybody except allah.


James Dahl

There support based is thousands of hardened fighters who have the same worldview.

They also have learnt the game of politics i.e in Baydhabo they secured the support of the D&M elders before, during, and after their conquest of the city.

[James Dahl]

James Dahl

There support based is thousands of hardened fighters who have the same worldview.

They also have learnt the game of politics i.e in Baydhabo they secured the support of the D&M elders before, during, and after their conquest of the city.

Not really, Mukhtar Roobow just isn't a murderer, he's always treated people fairly in his campaign through Bay and Bakool. Had it been the Kismayo al-Shabab, they would have beheaded the lot of them probably.

[Unclebin-]

What are you talking about? The Shabaab in Kismaayo Let Waldiire go. He came back. They then executed him.

He shoulda ran far away the first time.

Surely if Xaabsade (He's in exile right now) comes back to baydhabo, he's not going to be in the good books of anybody.

[Foxy22]

Fah

The sahaba fought and they made empires collapse I.e Persia and half of the roman byzantine empire.

Now I am not saying shabaab are like the sahaba but they put their trust in Allah and have it firmly fixed they will conquer man lands.

This is happening in Algeria with the GSPC AKA Al Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb, in Afghanistan with the taliban, in Iraq with the ISI aka Islamic state of Iraq in Chechnya with Islamic Emirate of the Caucaus etc.

I think they don't fear anybody except allah.


James Dahl

There support based is thousands of hardened fighters who have the same worldview.

They also have learnt the game of politics i.e in Baydhabo they secured the support of the D&M elders before, during, and after their conquest of the city.

In Baidoa, they secured the support of Mirifle only.. there is no Digil in Baidoa. In lower Shabeele, they have respect from the Digil elders but I would not call it support.