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Do You think if He accepts Shareef's offer that it will weaken Shabab? Its possible at most that Bay/Bakool will withdraw from Shabab controlled lands.


Most probably though it will make no difference. They'll simply call Him a murtad and appoint another Guy to fill His position


This is an idealogy, people or even clans really have no weight in it.

now you see the hopelessness of peace

more war

Maybe we are meant to not have a government. Maybe is a blessing in disguise or a curse, i really dont know.

Maybe we are meant to be an example for the rest of the world. Maybe we are being punished for past crimes.

Mukhtar Roobow commands enormous respect in al-Shabaab due to his efforts and leadership in the war, I doubt he could be cast aside quite so easily.

James Dahl wrote:Mukhtar Roobow commands enormous respect in al-Shabaab due to his efforts and leadership in the war, I doubt he could be cast aside quite so easily.

I think he would.

You have no idea how powerful an idelogogy really is. They will declare him a murtad and will try to kill him as they are doing with Sharif

FAH1223 wrote:

James Dahl wrote:Mukhtar Roobow commands enormous respect in al-Shabaab due to his efforts and leadership in the war, I doubt he could be cast aside quite so easily.

I think he would.

You have no idea how powerful an idelogogy really is. They will declare him a murtad and will try to kill him as they are doing with Sharif

Look at what happened in Galgaduud when Ayrow died, he was their hero, and the whole movement literally fell apart when he died. Mukhtar Roobow is to Bay what Ayrow was to Galgaduud. They will follow his lead.

i'm talking about his allies in kismaayo

Jaaamac,

How did the movement fall apart When Ceyrow AUN died? If anything it picked up steam after He died. Bay, Bakool, Gedo, Jubbada Dhexe, Jubbada Hoose and Shabeelada Hoose all fell to Shabab after His death. Shareef was the uncontested leader of the whole ICU (Including Shabab) and You saw How He got distanced. Same with Daahir Aweis, they attacked His enclave in Marka and drove out His cousin Indacadde. This is 100% idealogy and one Man means absolutely nothing. I guarantee You if Robow accepts Shareef's offer He'll be called murtad gaal raac tomorrow, and new leaders will emerge.

FAH1223 wrote:i'm talking about his allies in kismaayo

They're not all that much stronger than he is, and if he aligns himself with the government and Turki decides to fight both of them they would be absurdly outgunned. Luckily it looks as though things are going to be resolved peacefully.

How did the movement fall apart When Ceyrow AUN died? If anything it picked up steam after He died. Bay, Bakool, Gedo, Jubbada Dhexe, Jubbada Hoose and Shabeelada Hoose all fell to Shabab after His death.

Well, exactly. Which of those successes are nearby to Dusamareeb? None. Also, many of those were actually Ras Kambooni and the Islamic Front, not al-Shabaab, which is becoming a catchall phrase for all islamist groups...

James Dahl wrote:[Well, exactly. Which of those successes are nearby to Dusamareeb? None. Also, many of those were actually Ras Kambooni and the Islamic Front, not al-Shabaab, which is becoming a catchall phrase for all islamist groups...

Nobody's talking about Dusamareer Jaamac. In Galgudud they picked fights they had no business being in and got their butts handed to them. That region is mostly suufi, and Shabab Had zero local support there and Were not popular at all.


As far as Shabab in Kismaayo, the Chairman there is Zeeilaci and He's one of the top two leaders. The second most visible Guy Yacquub is bonafide Shabab. I'm not sure Where these groups Ras Kamboni, Islamic front come in the picture.


However if it turns out Turki and Mansur both take the deals and convince their groups, then I see the whole Shabab alliance dying, and the situation in the South turning back into clan which is 100% better and easier to manage. Shareef would basically have politically broke this group and the South would turn into a every clan for themself.

Murax wrote:

James Dahl wrote:[Well, exactly. Which of those successes are nearby to Dusamareeb? None. Also, many of those were actually Ras Kambooni and the Islamic Front, not al-Shabaab, which is becoming a catchall phrase for all islamist groups...

Nobody's talking about Dusamareer Jaamac. In Galgudud they picked fights they had no business being in and got their butts handed to them. That region is mostly suufi, and Shabab Had zero local support there and Were not popular at all.


As far as Shabab in Kismaayo, the Chairman there is Zeeilaci and He's one of the top two leaders. The second most visible Guy Yacquub is bonafide Shabab. I'm not sure Where these groups Ras Kamboni, Islamic front come in the picture.


However if it turns out Turki and Mansur both take the deals and convince their groups, then I see the whole Shabab alliance dying, and the situation in the South turning back into clan which is 100% better and easier to manage. Shareef would basically have politically broke this group and the South would turn into a every clan for themself.

Our aim should be a government not going back to the stone ages of clan politics. Why would you prefer the south going back to clan politics?

i m sure that some of them will not accept the peace process,,laakiin kuwaasi waa in madaxa laga jaraa..

Xashi wrote:[Our aim should be a government not going back to the stone ages of clan politics. Why would you prefer the south going back to clan politics?

I hate clan too, laakin now that Warlords are out of the picture the clans will easily reconcile. Plus its 100% more transparent then somebody making takfir on You, and spilling Your blood.

The rumours are not yet confirmed. But there is speculation that AbuMansur met Sharif and this has angered the top 6 executive council members of Shabab who are mostly Dir & Isaq.
But still since Abu Mansur has the support of the D & M elders he has more bagaining power as most of the Foot soilders of Shabab are D&M, Darood,Hawiye. Hence incase Mansur gives a Veto the top executive brass opinion will be irrelevant and will have no weight .

Abu Mansur & Sheikh Turki are the deciding factors of any agreement with Sharif Govt. Though I dont support the Sharif but the blood of the somalis is Muqadas and the shedding of blood is something I abhor .

The_Patriot wrote:The rumours are not yet confirmed. But there is speculation that AbuMansur met Sharif and this has angered the top 6 executive council members of Shabab who are mostly Dir & Isaq.
But still since Abu Mansur has the support of the D & M elders he has more bagaining power as most of the Foot soilders of Shabab are D&M, Darood,Hawiye. Hence incase Mansur gives a Veto the top executive brass opinion will be irrelevant and will have no weight .

Abu Mansur & Sheikh Turki are the deciding factors of any agreement with Sharif Govt. Though I dont support the Sharif but the blood of the somalis is Muqadas and the shedding of blood is something I abhor .

A true wadani