Real Talk: Sheikh Sharif's government.

[Voltage]

Let us move away from what we actually want to see happening and let us focus on the reality for a second. I know hope is a powerful thing and we all hope this government to be different then all the others but this is the situation it is facing.

We all agree that Somalia will be Somalia when the south fixes itself up and this is the south.

The places that are full 100% no go for Shiekh Sharif or his government.

-Bay is no go zone. Held by group very much against Shiekh Sharif.
-Gedo is a no go zone. Held by group very much against Shiekh Sharif.
-Bakool is a no go zone. Held by group very much against Shiekh Sharif.
-Lower Jubba is a no go zone. Held by group very much against Shiekh Sharif.
-Middle Jubba is a no go zone. Held by group very much against Shiekh Sharif.
-Lower Shabelle is a no go zone. Held by group very much against Shiekh Sharif.
-Somaliland is a no go zone. Held by a group which declared itself separate from Somalia.

>Major cities of the south include everything from Kismaayo to Baydhabo to Baardheere to Marka and Barawe.

The places where Shiekh Sharif has some support and can possibly get of an airplane and actually visit.

-Parts of Galgaduud but very unimportant to the solution (partly because many of the actors in south Somalia are from here).
-Puntland State but even more unimportant and irrelavent.
-Hiiraan which is also not very important to solving the problem. Also, the group opposed to Shiekh Sharif still has a powerfall base here.
-Middle Shabelle, the only real southern state Shiekh Sharif can get off an airport from because his clan is one of the principal inhabitants. But there has been a fight in the middle of the airport before during the first time Shiekh Sharif came back to Somalia from exile so I don't even though it is probably leaning heavily towards Sheikh Sharif. Still it has also been one of the quieter regions when it comes to the politics problem in the south.

Now Mogadishu is left.

-Obviously Shiekh Sharif can get off an airplane and stay in Villa Somalia under heaving guard just like Abdullahi Yusuf also used to do but his opposition in the city has increased tenfold in the last week.

1. The new Xisbul Islaam group was announced and we saw Indhacade, Cumar Iiimaan, and many guys in the hardcore opposition as well as old ICU hold a public press conference in the middle of Mogadishu labeling Shiekh Sharif's governent same as Abdullahi Yusuf.
2. The godfather of the Islamic movement, Hassan Dahir Aweys, has resaid again and again Shiekh Sharif's governent should be opposed and we know his power in Xamar.
3. The port was attacked today in broad daylight as the Ugandans were unloading with the opposition claiming the attack and the Ugandans powerless to day anything.

When you look at the real situation it is sad out there and the most saddest of all is Shiekh Sharif is not facing an opposition that wants power or seats and be cajoled into negotiating, he is facing Al Shabaab and Al Qaeda types who believe his government is divinely wrong. This means absolutely no negotiation from their side. We saw the reaction from Abu Mansur when he was asked about the rumors if he met with Shiekh Sharif and literally scoffed at what he said was ridiculous and unlikeliest thing to happen.

Is the honeymoon going to be over real soon for Sheikh Sharif and his government?

[Serena]

This has been the reality on the ground since the very moment he got elected.

[Lacageylacag]

The opponents of Sheikh shariff's gov. are mostly for shareeca.
Once shareeca is established to their satisfaction, everything will fall into place.
Religious people are by far the most reasonable people to negotiate with.

He should have chosen a sheikh from either Somaliland, Gedo, Bay or Jubooyinka as his PM.
Secular people are thieves. Now every penny that comes to the state coffers will be stolen as usual.

[Twisted_Logic]

Voltage,

You make some interesting observations in your post and I agree with you to an extent. Here are some of the places I disagree with you:

1) Hiiraan: A very strategic point and get way to Xamar. Most of the real strength of the ICU is based here and can reinforce the ARS with men and logistical support.

2) Middle Shabelle: Can provide manpower and act as a deterrent to the activities in Sh Hoose.

3) Xamar: Majority of the public supports Sh Sharif. Sh Hassan Dahir Aweys doesn't have much power in Xamar and specifically within his very own Ceyr sub-clan. In fact, his own brother Sh Ahmed Dahir Aweys is currently in Xamar convincing the Ceyr militias led by Indo Cade to lay down arms and join the Sh Sharif government. An ultimatum was issued few days ago to Indo Caade that gave him the following choices

a) Declare himself to be Ceyr and as such is respectful to the decisions of the clan and their interests
b) To state that the will of his people is not relevant to him and should thus discontinue using his clan's name.

About the Southern Regions beyond SH. Hoose, once Xamar is settled and ARS-Asmara is brought on board, it is easier to deal with the folks in Kismayo and other regions. The people there as tired of war and anarchy as the people in Xamar.

[Murax]

Inshallah khair bey noqon. Nobody said it was ever going to be easy. Either way this is the last real chance Somalia Has for a Dawlad. Shareef will have no excuses if He fails because He's going to be getting support from everywhere.

[zidane88]

I see him ending up,the president of Kaaraan and Madiina.

[Gedo_Boy]

Twisted,

Did IndhaCadde revert back to a clan militia leader?

[Voltage]

Twisted, I can't prophesize anything I just analyzed the situation now. I think what you brought is interesting but I guess we will have to see what actually changes from the reality but this is the reality now.